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Three to Watch: Big 12 Edition

November 4, 2011
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Three to Watch is purposely avoiding the Tigers and Elephants in the room when it comes to the big game this week and so we venture to the SEC’s minor league system, the Big 12, to check out a few games of interest. So let’s start with the best game as Kansas travels to Iowa State. Wait, nope.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State, 8:00 ABC- So this is the match-up ESPN/ABC is putting up against the LSU-Bama game. They’ve pretty much conceded ratings defeat though, with constant LSU-Bama recruiting videos features on the WWL all week. Still, this game has serious BCS implications as well. In fact, Oklahoma State is almost certain to jump into the top two with a win. While the Pokes might be feeling some pressure, KSU will have to deal with the post-traumatic symptoms lingering from last week’s 58-17 beatdown delivered by the Sooners.

Kansas State’s suspect defense couldn’t deal with Oklahoma’s talent last week and they don’t figure to be able to deal with OSU’s this Saturday. Justin Blackmon, Brandon Weeden, and Joseph Randle combine to lead the nation’s second best scoring offense. Weeden and Blackmon have hooked up for 10 scores on the season, while Randle has rushed for four touchdowns in each of his last two games and sixteen on the year. Those are crazy numbers. To keep up, KSU is going to try and keep those cats off the field by controlling the pace with their ground game. The Wildcats sport the 20th best run game in the country, averaging about 210 yards per game, while the Cowboys have the 84th best rush defense. Of course, teams don’t have a lot of time to run the ball when they are down three scores. Last week against the Sooners, the Wildcats didn’t abandon the run despite the deficit, running 43 times against 16 pass attempts. QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert will likely see some more success against the Pokes than they did the Sooners, but I doubt they’ll be able to keep up.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma, 3:30 ABC/ESPN2 mirror- The afternoon tilt will feature two of the top ten teams in the country in terms of total offense and two great QBs with OU’s Landry Jones and A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. What was supposed to be a banner season for Texas A&M has turned into an ominous one with three extremely close losses to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri. A lot can be salvaged with a second straight win over Oklahoma, but the Sooners are holding out hope for a Big 12 championship and looking to rectify a home lost for the first time in about 40 games.

One factor of note for the Sooners will be the absence of running back Dominique Whaley, who is lost for the season after an injury early in last week’s game. Running backs Roy Finch, Brennan Clay, and Brandon Williams will likely share the load until one establishes himself as a clear starter. Meanwhile, Jones shouldn’t have much trouble passing against the Aggies 120th rated pass defense. Yes, that’s last in FBS. Oklahoma’s #2 rated pass offense approves. Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills might want to stow some chairs in the end zones.   The Aggies have enough firepower to give a fair fight in a shootout. Tannehill will benefit as receiver Jeff Fuller continues to get healthy, while running back Cyrus Gray is looking to turn in his first dominant performance of the season.  I like Oklahoma to win this high scoring game.

Texas Tech at Texas, Noon FX- Every week when I see a game is on FX go through the same cycle. “Why is a game on FOX this week? Oh, FX. Wait, why does FX have a game on instead of an X-Men movie? OMG GUS JOHNSON! HA HAAAA!” Much like Missouri-Texas A&M in this time slot last week, we have a good Big 12 game to keep an eye on as we jump into another Saturday. Texas Tech followed up its monumental upset win at Oklahoma with a true bed-shitting against Iowa State in Lubbock that saw them lost by 34, while Texas took back-to-back losses against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and will try to get some momentum going into another tough stretch. Read more »

Michigan/Michigan State: Why The Wolverines Will Win

October 14, 2011
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Almost just used this picture for the entire post.

Holy crap, Michigan and Michigan State play in under 24 hours! The battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy really snuck up on me this year with all of the Detroit professional sports events going on. STAAFFFFFORRRD! You’ve already seen Jamie’s blueprint for a Spartan victory detailing his reasons why you’ll see Baylor MSU players hoisting that monstrous trophy again. As he may have mentioned, I am seeing this one a little differently and I think it’s the Wolverines this year, Gary!

Actually, I’ve been waiting for this post since sometime in the off-season when Jamie was singing the praises of the Spartans coming off their Big Ten Championship they shared with most of the league. The way I saw it, they secured one big win without their head coach around and took care of the worst of the conference, at times in thrilling fashion, en route to as an unimpressive 11-1 as I have witnessed in the Big Ten. But whatever, that was last year and this is…well this year. Now in Jamie’s defense, Michigan State has some damn nice players and they’re a contender again in the B1G. HOWEVAH, let’s take a look at some reasons the Wolverines will be leaving East Lansing with more than a vaguely sewage-y smell on Saturday.

No, YOU’RE FRAUDULENT!

When it comes to execution, Michigan looks like I expected them to look in year two of the Brady Hoke era. The defense has rocketed up the statistical charts, the offense has managed to stay within a chip shot of the machine it was last year, and field goals are even landing in that net thingy behind the goalposts sometimes. After fast starts the last couple years and a less-than-stellar schedule, this success has been met with cautious optimism at best and calls of FRAUDULENT more often than not. Spare me. The last two years, this team was like major company being run by those smelly dudes in the mail room. The freshmen and sophomores that played in too many key positions are all grown up now and have Michael J. Fox’d their ways to the board room. Michigan still has a handful of youngsters in key roles, but no more than other teams competing for championships. Guys like Denard Robinson, Taylor Lewan, Kenny Demens, Craig Roh, Jordan Kovacs and JT Floyd are finally to points in their careers where they would normally be expected to contribute and they are living up to those expectations. This doesn’t mean that there won’t be a dip in the record after a 6-0 start, but the last two years mean far less than most are assuming. Also, if you’re going to bag on someone’s schedule you might want to stick with the home team. The Spartans have a win at Ohio State in a game the Buckeyes were hell bent on giving to the Spartans, while Sparty was only a little less determined not to accept. Other than that, we’re looking at a blowout loss to Notre Dame and wins against two of the worst teams in FBS and a sloppy win against an FCS opponent. While we should “know” much more about MSU than Michigan at this point in the season, I’d say the Wolverines have given us a little more to go on.

Coordination is Key Read more »

Red River Shootout at High Noon

October 7, 2011
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No Three to Watch this week, as Jamie has your 3:30 window primer with picks and will have some KNIGHT JAMEZ picks later on. Really just one good early game this week, so might as well focus on the Red River Rivalry Shootout. For the first time since 2008 and the second time in seven years, Texas and Oklahoma enter the game undefeated. Oklahoma has notched an impressive win at Florida State, while Texas has successfully completed the first stages of its revenge tour following a 5-7 record last season. 4-0 vs 4-0, Texas vs Oklahoma, fierce rivalry. Get up early buy your meats and cheeses and settle in for FOOTBAW!

Two-Headed Monstah

The Texas quarterback situation is interesting. Returning starter Garrett Gilbert returned this year and had some injury issues giving way to recent legacy QB Case McCoy. Returning starter isn’t that cool of a spot to be in if you’re returning from a team that went 5-7 in a program that doesn’t really do that kind of thing. So, Gilbert has lost that starting spot to McCoy and freshman David Ash, who share the QB duties in a way I haven’t totally figured out yet. McCoy started against Iowa State, but gave way to Ash who went for 145 yards and two scores. The same discussion applies to all of these two-quarterback systems, stating that it gives you the luxury of going with the hot hand, but realizing that “if you have two, you don’t have one.” They’re young kids and having two of them gives you a better chance of finding one that isn’t rattled by the big stage. The youngsters have been great this year, but this will be by far their biggest test. Pretty sure this monster is scarier to Texas than to Oklahoma.

Youguns Everywhere

Texas sports some youth at other key positions. Malcolm Brown has been solid this year at the running back position, averaging around 5 yards per carry. The freshman carries the load for the Longhorns. Kind of a theme. Jaxon Shipley (yep, brother again) and Mike Davis (no relation to that Indiana coach) are the top targets at wide receiver and in those two you have a freshman and sophomore, respectively. Crazy young. Shipley caught six passes for 141 yards and a score against Iowa State last week and has upped his production every Saturday through the early part of the season. It doesn’t stop with the offense either, as Texas rolls out youth on defense, especially in the back four. One to watch in particular is Quandre Diggs, a freshman that Texas fans love and a guy sure to have a lot of responsibilities on Saturday. Read more »

B1G Red: Previewing Nebraska at Wisconsin

September 30, 2011
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What's red all over?

“Reminder: eeeeeeeeeeee in 24 hours.” That’s what I’m assuming my phone will read come 8PM tonight, based on my reaction when I saw the B1G schedule. Nebraska kicks off their conference schedule in Camp-Randall tomorrow night (8PM ET ABC) and it’s going to be a great football game and quite possibly the toughest potential game of “Where’s Santa?” ever. Seriously, Wisconsin’s sea of red will make Nebraska’s no-life travelling band of farmers great fans seem non-existent. Well played Bucky (unless you’re planning a white-out). So, about the game.

Montee Man-Ball

Wisconsin’s run game is for serious. Against the best regional high school teams they could find, Wisconsin has piled up the rushing yards again this season and feature a tandem in the backfield that is one of the best in the nation. Montee Ball and James White both average better than 5.5 yards per carry and have already combined for 12 touchdowns. Jamie has set the Pick-4 prop at o/u 145.5 yards for these two backs combined in this game, and I’m liking the over.  For Ball and White, much like every other back that has succeeded at UW, it starts with the offensive line. The Badgers’ offensive line is massive. According to Sports Illustrated, it is tied for the 5th heaviest offensive line in the country. Tied with the 49ers that is; this list includes NFL teams. Those cheese-fed rhinos can move people around and have been for years. When you have athletes like Ball and White running behind them, it looks too easy a lot of the time.

Anything you can do…

Even with Wisconsin’s prowess running the football and their junior varsity schedule, Nebraska boasts a higher rank in rush yards per game and has scored more TDs on the ground. The Huskers have a pretty nice tandem of their own, but one of those two plays QB. You want a balanced running attack? Taylor Martinez has 421 yards on 63 carries and 7 touchdowns this season, while running back Rex Burkhead has 420 yards on 63 carries and 7 touchdowns.  The vibe I get from reading through the coach-speak is that Wisconsin is concerned with Martinez’s speed to the edge. The Badgers are fookin’ stout up the middle of the field, but lack elite speed on the edges. The speed of Martinez has the potential to burn them outside, open up holes inside for Burkhead, or in the worst case for Wisconsin, both. Read more »

Three to Watch: Night Games Edition

September 30, 2011
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Three to Watch is going under the lights this week for a peek at some of the KNIGHT JAMEZ! We have a great weekend of college football coming up and Jamie has you covered (pun?) for some of the early contests. You’ll notice the big Wisconsin-Nebraska tilt as a conspicuous omission here, but I’ll be posting an in-depth preview for that one in short order. I really like that Washington at Utah game in the Pac-12 as well, but I’m not sure you can catch that one on national TV. Utah is favored by 8 and these teams can really score (I’m taking the Huskies to cover). Let’s get to a few other gems.

Clemson at Virginia Tech, 6:00, ESPN2

Is a 6 PM start really a night game? I suppose most of it will take place after dinner, so what the hell, it’s a great match-up. Much like the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, this could be a preview of the conference championship game, as Clemson has already dispatched Florida State and Va Tech looks like the front-runner in the Coastal Division. Clemson will lean on QB Tajh Boyd, who has led the ACC with 13 TDs and 1,255 yards passing. Boyd’s favorite target this year has been freshman wideout Sammy Watkins who has six scores and averages over 15 yards per catch. Make your pick on Watkins over/under 122.5 rushing/receiving yards in this week’s Pick-4. I’m going under.

Coming off of a huge win against Florida State, it won’t be easy to go into Blacksburg and grab a win. In fact, the last time Clemson was riding such a hot start and played at Virginia Tech they came out behind 24 to 7 in 2006. Play on the edges of the line and defensive backfield will be key for the Hokies. Slowing down a passing attack always starts with pressure on the passer and defensive ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins can provide that pressure. On the back end, Jayron Hosley will probably be primarily responsible for slowing down Watkins, and also the reason I’m sticking with the under on Pick-4. On the other side of the ball, it will all come down to the Hokies’ sophomore QB Logan Thomas. If Thomas can navigate his way through the game without big mistakes, the Hokies will score in the 20’s and have a chance to win. Like always. This won’t be a blowout though and I like Clemson to cover the one touchdown spread.

Texas at Iowa State, 7:00 FX Read more »