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Bubble News: Super Bowl Saturday Edition

February 3, 2012
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Will the Super Bowl ever move to Saturday? It should. If people are going to start considering it as a holiday and party event, lets move it so we’re not all ass dragging into work Monday morning. But, with the Big Game still on Sunday, however, we’ll have an unobstructed view of a full college basketball schedule. And, we’re getting into the most important time of the year. March is less than four weeks away. Selection Sunday is in 38 days. It’s a little bit of a paradox. There is both plenty of time to build a resume, yet with the days running out, the urgency is prime to take care of a resume win when its staring you down. Tomorrow there is action everywhere that will impact the current Bubble standing. I’ve highlighted seven games that most likely will cause a shuffle during the next bracketologist straw poll. It includes three head to head games between some of the final at large teams seeded on the current Bracket Matrix. As for picks, well lines arent out yet for any games tomorrow. But, hey, we bagged wins on Georgetown and Valparaiso the last two nights. As you know, we dont allow winnings to sit around doing nothing. We’ll have picks tomorrow.

Seton Hall at UConn, noon, ESPN 3/ESPN Full Court……Its the Freefall Invitational. Both these Big East clubs are in a tailspin, on losing streaks threatening to put their seemingly safe NCAA bid on ice. The Huskies come in on a 4-game skid, while the Pirates have done them one worse on their own 5-game slide. According to the Bracket Matrix, this is a battle of the consensus 8th seed Huskies vs 10th seed Pirates. The loser might not be pushed out completely, but there’s precious room left to fall down the pecking order without landing in NIT Projections. So the winner steadies themselves a bit, but the loser is going to be a world of hurt. Neither schedule eases up immediately after. The Huskies, for example, play at Louisville and at Syracuse in their next two games. A loss to the Pirates could just be another wrung on what could be as much as a 7-game losing streak. Can the defending champs be facing a must win game on the first Saturday of February? I think so. Regardless, they’re going back to the drawing board in hopes to save their season.

Xavier-Memphis, 1:00, Fox Sports Ohio……Like the game above, this contest pits a pair of the final at large teams on the Bracket Matrix when the 10-seed Memphis Tigers host 12-seed Xavier. Memphis is trying to rebound after losing to Southern Miss earlier in the week in a showdown for first place in Conference USA. I caught that game and was impressed enough with both squads that I cant believe we’ll find 38 better at large candidates in a month’s time. But this league is goofy. Its not deep enough to get more than those two bids, but its competitive enough top to bottom that going on the road is as dangerous as any major league. Two years ago, Memphis went 13-3 in the league, but lost in the first round of the CUSA sectional and was relegated to the NIT. A year ago, they were just 10-6 in league play, but streaked to the tournament championship to net the automatic NCAA bid. This year, they appear to be in between those two clubs. They cant afford to many more losses, however, they have a chance for a nice bubble win in this February non-conference game with Xavier. The Musketeers have the talent and game to be safe in the field, but have been slumping for nearly two months since that brawl against Cincinnati. The loser of this game likely falls out of most mock brackets during the next update and will be scrambling to impress the rest of the way.

Maquette-Notre Dame, 1:00, CBS………Notre Dame has put together quite a little run here in the middle of winter. They’ve beaten Syracuse and won at Seton Hall and UConn on this three game inning streak that have them in the top-4 of the Big East standings. They have a chance to puncuate this streak with another big win when they host Marquette. That 6-3 Big East record is sparkly and its hard to imagine a conference club losing out on a bid with a winning mark in this league. I think Notre Dame is a safe bet to make the NCAAs right now. This, despite only being a consensus 12 seed on the Bracket Matrix and only 13 of 61 total voters placing them on the 10-line or better. They’re walking right on the edge, but they have a manageable enough slate where they could overcome a home loss to Marquette, a projected 3-seed. If they can notch this win, the Irish will have a ton of breathing room. I’d expect them to be a sinlge digit seed on most everybody’s next bracket. From there, only a total collapse with a series of bad losses would knock them out.

Arkansas at LSU, 1:45, ESPN 3/ESPN Full Court.…..Ladies and Gents, meet the final team to make the consensus Bracket Matrix, the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs are listed on 25 of 61 brackets, the smallest amount of any at large in the consensus. They sit on the 12-seed line. The simple road map to an at large bid when you’re trying to charge from the back of the bubble rail has not changed: Win your marquee home games, add in enough winnable road games, then profit in the NCAAs. Arkansas filled the first half of that equation with an 8-point home win over Vanderbilt earlier in the week. Now, its bag a winnable road game time. A loss to the Tigers wouldnt be a death knell of any kind, but it would keep the Hogs running in place at best with the mock bracketology crowd. Thats not the best position to be in when you’re barely on a third of the mock brackets to begin with. Read more »

Thursday Hoop Thoughts: Georgetown, Murray State and BYU’s Bubble Stakes

February 2, 2012
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We’re going to pick up the daily posting again after taking most of January off to recharge and recalibrate our minds from obsessive college football fandom to obsessive college basketball and bubble tracking. We’ve been trying to catch as much hoops as possible lately and now its time to start commenting on it like any ESPN expert would. In LOUD VOICES AND CAPS while pretending we know it all. Hell, I was born for this.

I’m not clear on what our format is going to be. Expect a couple Bubble centric posts a week in addition to general hoop columns and a strategic game preview or two. And, there is also Chitownblue lurking in the JCB Strategic Engagement And Creative Room, where he’ll continue to pump out NBA and Big 10 focused basketball pieces. Once he’s done ridding our kitchen of mayonaisse. By the time we figure out a format, it will March. At that point, there is no format. Just chaos–in a good way–and a Gatlin Gun barrage of posting as we go from league tournaments to the Big One.

Bottomline? Thanks for sticking with us during our ‘sabbatical’ of sorts. Enjoy the rest of the hoops season and if you’ve got an idea or thought for us, dont hesitate to hit us up on the JCB Twitter feed or drop us a line at Jamie@JustCoverBlog.com. With that out of the way, lets talk hoops:

 Is Syracuse the best team in the country Big East?

Are we sure Syracuse is hands down the best team in the Big East, let alone the country? I’m not. Not because I think the Orange are overrated, but I feel its because Georgetown seems to be so underrated right now. In a one-off for the Big East title, I think this is a toss-up. The Hoyas methodically throttled a struggling UConn team last night and after a series of disappointing Marches, look to be a factor next month in both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. They play active defense, holding foes to 43.5 EFG%, 14th best in the land, and have KenPom’s 10th most efficient defense. Three point shooting is closed when you’re playing the Hoyas. They force steals on the perimeter and block a fair share of shots. In Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson, they have two versatile and good shooting scorers. They go 9-deep, bringing in a crop of four freshmen off the bench, highlighted by Otto Porter, perhaps the next, great Big East star. When this group of freshmen are shooting the ball well, this is a darn near impossible team to beat. They have a lot of effective size, get really good guard play and most importantly are oozing with talent. Everybody that sees legit minutes was at least a 4-star recruit per Rivals. If only they can overcome recent March demons. But, we’re still in February and the Hoyas stand two games behind the Orange. Their one and only regular season meeting of the season is next Wednesday in the Carrier Dome. KenPom only gives the Hoyas a 22-percent chance of winning, calling instead for a 7-point loss. I like their chances better than the tempo free guru. If you give me +7, for example, I am buying. On the same night, Duke/UNC and Kansas/Baylor face each other, but this vintage Big East rivalry is the main game I want to watch. I feel the Hoyas are better. Hopefully we’ll get a rematch next month at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Murray State Eventual Tournament Seed: Over/Under 4.5 Read more »

Bubble News: Texas, A January Must Win Tonight?

January 30, 2012
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If Texas fails to defend home court tonight against Missouri, it would be the Horns fifth loss in six tries, drop them to 3-6 in conference play and put making a 13th straight NCAA tournament in jeopardy. If they lose, then how over Rick Barnes would Longhorn fans be then? As it stands,  that NCAA streak is already up in the air, even before the 4rth-ranked Tigers arrive into Austin.  The only bracketologist ESPN has ever heard of Joe Lunardi had Texas as the fifth from last team cut from his field today.

Out in the real world of the Internet, where more bracketologists live, the mass mock bracket crowd isnt lining up for the Horns either. In the Bracket Matrix, updated right before the weekend which was after Texas’ win over Iowa State, but before the Baylor loss Saturday, the Horns are fourth from last cut from the consensus field, but more troubling were on just 19 of 52 mock brackets. In the smaller straw poll sample size of voters who updated between the Horns win last Tuesday and the latest Matrix update, the Horns did have the support of 5 of 9 bracketogists. Hey, thats better than half. The base of support has to begin somewhere. Of course, how do those mocks feel now in the wake of the Baylor loss? And how will all them feel should the Horns get wiped off the floor by the powerful Tigers these evening? Failure to reel in a marquee scalp–something the Horns resume truly lacks unless we’re counting Temple and Iowa State these days–will be a turnoff and teams like Colorado State, Minnesota, Notre Dame and even Oklahoma and Iowa State in their own league will have passed them on the pecking order when February starts.

Texas is a weird team to figure. KenPom.com loves this team. The Horns are ranked 20th in his overal ratings, equipped with a top-30 efficient offense and defense. They’re projected to win all but one of their remaining games–including tonight when they’re given a slim 51-percent chance of coming out on top 73-72. However, the RPI measurement isnt as impressed. Texas checks in a 69th in their rankings,  just behind Bucknell and Ohio and right ahead of South Dakota State. They are just 2-7 against teams ranked higher than them in the RPI. The discconect might be the fact the Horns are 0-6 in game decided by 6 points or less. The two things they dont do well per KenPom’s tempo free stats burying them. They’re the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big 12, allowing foes to grab 36-percent of their misses. Thats an astonishingly bad 276th worst in the land. They also cant guard without putting you on the free throw line. Their defensive free throw rate is 43.3%, 292nd nationally. They’re giving up 24.62 FT attempts in conference play, and in their losses this year its 30.87 FTAs per game.  They 276th nationally in fouls comitted. Those issues could be factors again this evening against a Missouri team thats the best free throw shooting team in the conference and also armed Ricardo Ratliffe, the Big 12′s 2nd leading offensive rebounder.

Will it haunt them in another swing and miss at a resume win? I dont know, I’m not here to predict this game. No, really, I’m not. I’m here to obsessively track the tournament bubble, and this contest is a big barometer for the Horns eventual chances. Yes, the slate eases up a bit in upcoming weeks. But if the Horns cant win tonight, you have to wonder if they can do much better than break even the rest of the way. Speaking of that, lets take a look: Texas Tech, At A/M, KSU, at OU, at Okie St, Baylor, at Texas Tech, OU, at Kansas. If they lose tonight, do they have the chops to do better than 5-4? You could see them shooting out on a 3-game winning streak after tonight. The pair with the Sooners and matchup issues with Romero Osby and Andrew Fitzgerald on the defensive glass loom large. Baylor and at Kansas would look like sure losses. A loss tonight followed by a 5-4 close would make them 18-13, 8-10 in league play. I think its going to be hard to crack the bracket with that resume. However, a 5-4 close with a win tonight would put them at .500 against a true round robin in one of the toughest leagues in the land. That might be enough when the regular season ends. The line is thin on the bubble’s edge and tonight’s game for Texas is a huge swing on that track. Get tonight’s resume win over Missouri  and they might be able to cruise in just take care of business mode to a bid. A loss and they’ll have to hustle the rest of the way to break even in Big 12 play and their pursuit of an NCAA bid might not be successul until they knock off one of the power teams–KU, Missouri or Baylor–in the Big 12 quarterfinals in five weeks.

Indiana Is Back, Nebraska Fans Storm Court

January 19, 2012
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I, for one, as a proud Indiana University alum, am tickled Cream and Crimson that our basketball squadron was able to provide Nebraska with its first marquee, landmark Big  10 conference basktetball win. It might not go on  page one of our rather proud and long history with the sport, but its now part of the Hoosier lore. Like it or not. It sucks to lose, but on the bright side, beating Indiana is all of a sudden a reason to storm the floor. After not just the last three seasons, but much of the last decade, its a welcome, if not bittersweet, sign of progress that the program is finally back to its proper relevancy. Beating Indiana is an important achievement again, something that could be your program and your fans highlight of the season.

Are you buying any of that? Probably not. But the rushing the court meme instantly came to me as the horn sounded and Husker fans romped towards center court. I cant even remember the last time somebody did that after beating Indiana. Most Indiana fans are more worried this morning about actual basketball issues than my quasi silver lining that we now have proof that beating IU is big news again. Nope. We’re all wondering whats become of our magical, dream season. A 3-game losing streak, highlighted by bad losses to Minnesota and Nebraska bookending a troubling, non competive beatdown at the hands of Ohio State has the pretty Bloomington sky a-falling.

Honestly, though, I am not taking that much umbrage with the loss. I did after the Minnesota loss because the team just didnt play well, they looked sloopy and almost played like a win was a foregone conclusion. The Gophers pretty much controlled the game, in Bloomington no less, the whole way. Last night was a different story. IU played well in the first half to forge a lead. Then, they played even better basketball for the first 13-14 minutes or so of the second half.  The win seemed in hand. Then, total meltdown. The Hoosiers began coming away with empty possessions. They missed a key free free throw. Nebraska hit a pair of clutch free throws. A game winning layup attempt by Jordan Hulls was blocked by the rim. It all seemed so last season, which isnt good. But road losses, even inexplicable ones like last night, happen, especially with a team that still needs to figure out how to close consistently on the road. As a nasty puncuation mark to an on-going three game losing streak, however, the final result is all that matters, not necessarily the first 34 minutes of the game when the Hoosiers looked like a polished, top-15 team and forged an 11-point lead.

So, what gives? Whats been happening on this skid? To my untrained basketball eye, here are the problems, in a nutshell: Verdell Jones needs to start dribbling with his head up. Victor Oladipo needs to stop trying to make the game winning play on every touch. They cant lose sight of Cody Zeller down the stretch and not get the ball in his hands. Jordan Hulls needs to stop playing like a spaz like he did last night. Seriously, isnt there a house somewhere on Dunn Street where we can find him something to calm his nerves? When I was in school there was, so somebody hook him up please. As a team, they need more commitment to defense. Basically the team appears to be finally struggling under the weight of expectations and being the target. Crean, a spaz in his own right, needs to find a way to calm the team down, restore its confidence and get them back to playing with the carefree, we’re back so deal with it, style that had propelled them into the top-10. Read more »

Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan

January 17, 2012
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(Chitownblue has been putting together great Big 10 Hoop posts so far this year. I have not been doing any basketball writing. Until this post. I feel rusty talking about hoops, so bear with me, HALOL)

For the first time since 1998, Michigan and Michigan State meet on the hardwood as ranked opponents. It’s been a long time. But, for most of the 1980s and 1990s matches with both in the rankings were fairly regular from the Joubert/Skiles rivalry to the winter of 1990 when Michigan was defending national champs while MSU streaked to the Big 10 title behind Steve Smith to those games in the early days of the Izzo tenure/final days of the Steve Fisher tenure. Michigan Hoops has been in the wilderness, but John Beilein seems to have led them out of the forest and back into NCAA relevancy. In some ways, tonight’s game is a must win for both sides. Michigan State needs the win to keep its early lead in the Big 1o race and stay ahead of Ohio State with the first of two matches with the Buckeyes looMing still three weeks out in the distance. As for Michigan, they dont want that third league loss and fall too far off the lead pack. But a loss tonight really sets up the chance for a protracted losing streak. Coming in off a defeat at Iowa, the Wolverines face a stretch after tonight that includes five road games in six starts, including stops at Arkansas, Purdue, Ohio State and a rematch in East Lansing against the Spartans. The Chicken Little in me wonders if a loss tonight wont be part of something akin to a 5-game skid and losses in six of seven. If so, look for the Wolverines, despite such heady preseason expectations, to be on the wrong side of the bubble by early February.  A win tonight would give them immeasurable breathing room should the upcoming three weeks be short on victories. It’s a rivalry game.  Get your talking points straight. Before our prediction, lets take a look at the protagonists this evening.

MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN, 7:00, ESPN. LINES, MSU -2, 0/U 132

What a difference a year makes for Michigan State. A year ago, the Spartans season devolved into a disaster, at least by modern day, Tom Izzo Era standards up in East Lansing. They dropped to .500 in league play, were bounced in ugly fashion in the first round of the NCAAs by UCLA and pretty much never looked like a cohesive basketball team for much of the season. This year? They look primed to return to the top of the Big 10 standings and rediscover their famous March Mojo. A year ago, the Spartans had the 62nd and 30th offensive and defensive rated efficiency teams in the land per KenPom. This season, they’re 7th and 9th, one of a few teams ranked in the top-10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor.  A year ago their offensive EFG% was 190th in the land. This season, they’re sharpshooters by comparison, ranking 48th in the country. In 2010-11, their defensive EFG% was 112th in the nation, while this year their EFG% on D is 23rd nationally. They’re a little bit better at shooting the 3-ball this year, but the biggest gains have been their 2-point field goal marksmanship having improved from 46.7% and 214th in the land a season ago to 52%, 48th in the country this year.

I’m sure we can dig up a bunch more hard core numbers to further back the on-court improvement, but I dont think any of that even matters. I think there is a chemistry difference between the two squads, and that’s been the biggest factor behind this year’s Green and White Renaissance. Last year’s club was caught up in their individual games, their pro prospects and never seemed to be on the same page with Izzo. The coach kicked Korrie Luscious off the team, but he was popular among his teammates. Lets just put it this way, whats the Over/Under on number of times last winter, post Luscious expulsion, that the players with Korrie in tow, got together, passed a joint around a circle and bitched about their asshole head coach. Whatever you’re setting the number at, I’m taking the Over. All of those guys are gone, replaced by fresh faces or holdovers with larger roles. And its amazing what can be accomplished when coaches and players like each other.  I know this aint twitter, but that deserves a #justsayin’.

As for the actual players, Draymond Green is putting in an All Big 10 First Team caliber performance. He’s avergaing 15.8 points per game and 10.1 boards.  He’s had 10 double-doubles this season, including three in a row coming into tonight. He’s had his own leadership aneurysm, his head coach is so in love, he calls him by cute nicknames like Day Day and, by his example, this team’s performance has done a 180 from last year. His frontcourt play has been backed up by a stellar guard unit. Keith Appling, Brandon Wood and Travis Trice arent as explosive scorers as last year’s guards were, but they’re more efficient, play within themselves and the game circumstances a bit better and turn the ball over less. It might not be as star studded, but this backcourt is better than a year ago. I say that as a big Kailon Lucas fan, too. Wood, the transfer from Valpo is such a smart player and never takes a bad shot. Appling is taking a major leap his sophomore year, showcasing why he had such hot recruiting bonafides coming out of Detroit’s Pershing High. With eight players netting at least 18 minutes a game, the Spartans are a deepish team and Izzo, unlike a year ago, has a lot of different options in his coaching bag if Plan A isnt working. Its all added up to being back in the Big 10 Championship mix. Read more »