(Update: Books did not have an line for the Texas-Ole Miss game posted yet when we did this column. They do now. The Horns are -3 after being -8 on the summer. Is our Fade Tour now beginning today? Yes it is despite earlier proclamations that this week be a bye week. I endorse an Ole Miss play and it’s too easy to pass up)
You know what I would like to bet on right now? I’d like some parlay odds on the likelihood that both the USC and Texas jobs both come open before the end of the calendar year. That seems like a sure thing at this point. Not to mention totally crazy that two high profile, brand programs would be searching for a coach at the same time. Talk about some serious coaching dominoes that could fall in the event new coaching staffs are brought into both Austin and LA. It would be reminiscent of 2000 when both the Alabama and USC jobs were open with the Tide eventually grabbing Dennis Franchione and USC taking a flier on, at the time, NFL reject Pete Carroll.
We should probably think about firing the JCB at this point, too. It’s been a rough start to the season here for the JCB as we’re struggling every bit as Lane Kiffin and Mack Brown are right now. We’re already in ‘we’re not here to talk about the past’ mode. But, despite our struggles, within the last 48 hours we’ve been given a gift from the gambling gods. Perhaps a bone to keep us from having to donate blood every other day to survive. What’s that gift? Why the news that Brown has hired Greg GERG Robinson to run the defense, in the wake of Manny Diaz’s dismissal after the Horns gave up 40 points to BYU over the weekend.
Yes. That’s right. GERG is back coaching the defense in a high profile spot. Need I remind you of his last stop at Michigan? He presided over the worst defense in school history not just once, but twice in his two years in Ann Arbor. Over the course of two seasons, the Wolverines allowed 36.3 points per game against B10 and other BCS automatic qualifier teams. They went 6-13 straight up, 3-16 against the spread in those games.
Maybe Mack Brown isn’t a dumb ass like Rich Rodriguez and this will all work out, you say? Well I would counter that maybe he is. Have you seen the Horns in recent seasons? You do know he made this decision, right? Besides it’s not just the Michigan stop that should have Texas fans running to the hills, while the rest of us run to the window to bet against Texas. GERG’s other stops have been just as, well, amazing.
In the four seasons prior to running the defense at Michigan, he was the head coach at Syracuse. His teams went 10-38 straight up, 20-25-1 ATS and was named one of the worst head coaches of the last 50 years in college football by Athlon sports. He was the Texas DC in 2004, and the Horns did go 11-1. But they only went 4-6 ATS against BCS level foes. That team also had Vince Young at QB.
*Checks Texas’s current roster*
*Sees no Vince Young*
*Immediately discounts any success GERG had in Austin during that one season stop.*
Bottomline: In his last seven years coaching college football, GERG’s team went 33-49 ATS. Six losing seasons out of seven against the number. His losses were smart gamblers profits.
I would expect similar results this go around too. I mean, it’s not like Texas is even playing well right now. They’re on a 9-17 ATS in Big 12 games over the last three seasons. Teams in that league have passed them. The hiring of GERG is not something that will change those directions.
We will be betting against Texas for most of the rest of the season. While there isn’t a line up yet for this weekend’s game with Ole Miss, we don’t have to wait to begin the Fade ‘Em Horns Tour of 2013. We can bet right now against the Horns at sportsbook.com’s current Games Of The Year board. The lines they have up on future Texas games this year made my jaw drop. Here were the highlights:
Texas -1 vs Oklahoma (Dallas)
Texas -2.5 vs Oklahoma St (Austin)
Texas -3 at TCU
Texas -3 at Baylor
Holy Moses! Are those lines real? Why are they favored over Oklahoma even to begin with?!?! Even over the summer, I felt that line was ridiculous. After their poor performance so far and the GERG hiring, shouldn’t the Sooners at least by -7 or something? But they’re chalk in all those other games too. Maybe the Okie St players will be distracted by scandal? I don’t buy that theory. They are also -17.5 on the road against Iowa State and -13 at home vs. Texas Tech, but I’m less interested there (for now) because I don’t know if those are even good teams.
But the four listed above are good teams. And really the top-4 contenders for the Big 12 crown. I don’t feel like the Horns are legit contenders here, even though those lines suggest otherwise. Real quick, what is the Horns’ record against those teams the last three seasons? Try 2-8. They’ve allowed 40.1 points per game in those 10 contests. And they just hired GERG.
Do you have $880 laying around? If so, run to whatever Book has these lines. They’re at sportsbook.com right now. Place four $220 to win $200 bets, one on each game and go against the Horns in each one. I cant see them doing better than 1-3 in those games. And when they do, that’ll be a 43% return on your investment. Our picks might suck now, but we’re recapturing some our losses with this one.