Guys don't get carried off the floor on people's shoulders much these days. 43 points will do that.
Any recent fan of Big Ten athletics is undoubtedly familiar with the senseless pap that gets thrown around in the name of the conference. Something about the rust-belt Midwestern sprawl of the conference prompts senseless talking-heads to ascribe a slew of blue-collar sensibilities to the style of play in THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE (this should be said in your best Merrill Hoge “NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE” voice). The assertion is that the physical, brawny Big Ten will dissemble any newfangled wrinkle of innovation. Lately, in football, this has been a sop – the conference is down, not just compared to it’s SEC rivals, and it seems like a minimum level of competence in any scheme (TACKLING works in the BIG TEN CONFERENCE) is enough to warrant success. Further, it’s often a lie – the image of the conference is between the tackles old-school football which really only applied to Wisconsin this past year.
In basketball, however, this is close to law – the conference DOES play slower, it DOES play more physical (witness a “soft team like Michigan’s recent win over MSU for an example) and it DOES punish teams that can’t match these qualities (see: Northwestern’s significant difficulties in taking down more than one good team a year). What worse is that for the past few years, the conference has been brutally deep, with teams from the top echelon struggling to win on the road, anywhere.
Last week, the Big Ten had four teams ranked in the top 25, and every single team dropped a road game to an unranked opponent. Three of these losses came to Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and the combined conference record of the victors was an uninspiring 11-14. These games have been unforgiving, and it’s not just because the favorite plays poorly: Ohio State lost a game that saw them take 21 more shots than Illinois, Indiana out-shot Nebraska by 14 percentage points, and Michigan State posted their best eFG% of Big 10 play against Northwestern. The opposition has just found ways to win – from Illinois conference-worst shooting team hitting 60% from the floor, Nebraska’s 275th ranked offensive rebounding attacking winning the battle on the boards, and Northwestern’s porous defense forced turnovers on 25% of the Spartans possessions. It’s just a jungle out there.
What does it mean going forward? Since going to an 18-game conference slate, the conference has been won by a team that goes 15-3 or better in three of four years, with the lone exception being 2010, when three times tied at 14-4 and a fourth finished at 13-5 – the most top-heavy performance in league history. With every favorite sitting with at least two conference losses a mere third of the way through the season, this figures to be the lowest win figure to take the conference since the expanded conference slate. Illinois sits at the top with one loss, but with two to play against both Wisconsin and Michigan, road-trips to Indiana and Ohio State, and a game against Michigan State, some losses are coming. The bet here is that you see the conference’s first 13-win champion since the expanded conference slate.
Onto the power-rankings:
1. Ohio State 16-3 (4-2).
The Buckeyes grabbed 37% of their own misses, and won the turnover battle by ten against the Illini, only to watch a team with a 51.5% eFG shoot 72.2%, lead by Brandon Paul (45.9% eFG on the year) shooting 100%. Really. 100%. He also tripled his average free-throw attempts (yes, this was officiated by Ted Valentine), scoring a preposterous 43 points on 15 shots. There is nothing to take from this game other than to say “when they play against the single-best shooting display in conference history, the Buckeyes will lose”. I think we knew that?
2. Michigan State 15-4 (4-2)
Welcome to the new Big Ten, where losing two in a row doesn’t get you demoted. The Spartans still have turnover problems (which are near solely responsible for their last two losses), but the good news is that the shooting is rounding into shape. Unfortunately, apparently the Spartans haven’t round into shape quite yet, according to Tom Izzo. Unless that shape is round.
3. Michigan 15-4 (4-2)
Yes, they have the same record as the Spartans, and yes, they just beat the Spartans. This is still a team that hasn’t shot particularly well for nearly a month – we’ll wait to declare their supremacy until after their trip to the Breslin Center. The good news is that despite not shooting well, they do keep winning – somewhat uncharacteristic for a John Beilein team. They do need to watch the turnovers – they literally turned the game over to the Hawkeyes.
4. Illinois 15-3 (4-1)
Despite being in first place, this team still inspires some doubt, and it’s not just Bruce Weber’s presence. The win over Ohio State is great, but it was such an aberrant performance, it’s hard to take seriously. Other than that, they were slaughtered by Purdue, and barely slid by Northwestern, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This is a tourney team, but they won’t be in the conference race when all is done.
5. Indiana 15-4 (3-4)
The losers of three straight, the giant killers seem to be capable of losing a game in any fashion these days. First, they were destroyed on the offensive glass by Minnesota on a night where their shooting seemed to abandon them, hitting only 43% of their shots – a poor mark for this team. Against Ohio State, they still didn’t shoot well, but all of a sudden, got torched by the Buckeye offense. Against Nebraska, they played great shooting defense – they just got waxed on the glass again. The concerning part is that they’re starting to foul again – committing nearly 40 against Minnesota and Ohio State.
6. Wisconsin 15-5 (4-3)
Wisconsin stabilized from their three-game losing stream with a rare win at Purdue, a narrow win at home against Nebraska, and a destruction of Northwestern. They still can’t make shots, and they still can’t rebound very well – they just guard the rim extremely well. Any game involving them at this point is a race to 50.
7. Purdue 14-5 (4-2)
Like Wisconsin, Purdue is significantly being held back by poor shooting – Robbie Hummel made fewer than 33% of his shots against the Badgers in their home loss. The defense isn’t the same as it’s been during the rest of the Painter era, and the Boilermakers need solid shooting to pull them through. When they don’t get it, they largely fail to compete.
8. Iowa 11-9 (3-4)
Iowa continues their slow climb up the rankings. Three wins with two on the road is more than we can say for anyone else below them.
9. Minnesota 14-5 (2-4)
Minnesota’s win at Indiana was perhaps the most startling result of the conference season – one that saw Rodney Williams finally step out with an increased role in the offense. This still isn’t a good team, and the same problems persist – no point guard, no outside shooting, and an unconcerned lump in the middle.
10. Northwestern 12-6 (2-4)
Yes, they just got their annual “big win”, so it seems odd to drop them. But perhaps no team embodies the “won’t work in the Big Ten” maxim like these guys. Wisconsin hasn’t been able to hit the broadside of a barn for a month, and Northwestern just allowed them to shoot a 61% eFG, and spotted them 14 FT attempts (they average 9 a game). As long as guys like Coble, Williams, Shurna, and Crawford are around, they’ll always be able to almost go .500, but that generation is on their way out, and they still haven’t broken through. It seems like it’s time for a change.
11. Nebraska 10-8 (2-5)
Last year, the Huskers were a dangerous team at home, with mostly the same cast of players. With a big win over Indiana, maybe they can reclaim that.
12. Penn State 9-10 (1-5)
Maybe they should just rest up for February 11th’s matchup against Nebraska in Happy Valley.
