Come on, Big Ten! Make me stop posting Hoosier pictures! Next time it's a Crean-face.
At the start of the year, we pegged the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers – two teams that had spent most of the past four years at the top of the conference, as second and third in the conference, respectively. It was clear they lost production – Purdue lost conference player-of-the-year JaJuan Johnson and running-mate E’Twaun Moore while Wisconsin lost senior star Jon Leuer in addition to sharp-shooter Keaton Nankivil. There was some reason for optimism – Purdue returned all-conference caliber Robbie Hummel, who had missed all of the previous year, while Wisconsin seemed to have some highly-rated players to fill Leuer’s shoes, and a daunting home-floor advantage to paper over some weaknesses.
But things don’t always work out – Wisconsin has lost three consecutive games, two at home, and one of those to…Iowa? Purdue, for their part, got blown out in hyperbole-inspiring fashion by Penn State after seemingly righting the ship at home against Illinois. What, if anything, did we get wrong about these teams? Are these aberrations, or these bad teams?
Wisconsin, for years, has been an elite offense hiding behind a snail’s pace. In five of the past six years, they’ve been, adjusted for tempo, one of the 25 best offensive teams in the nation, peaking out at 2nd last year. During this span, their shooting has ranged from “pretty good” to “mediocre”, but what’s always kept them intact has been ball-security – with four appearances in the top 10 in the category. The key, simply, is their shooting. On the year, they don’t appear to have taken a huge step backwards – their eFG% has only dropped one percent. However, in Big Ten play, the Badgers are shooting eight percent under that mark (43% eFG), and in their three losses, that number falls to 39.9% – twelve points under last year. The problem certainly exists at the top, where Jordan Taylor is shooting five points worse than last year, and failing to get to the line at nearly the same clip, but with five additional shot attempts a game, it seems like he’s trying to prop up a failing offense. Jarred Berggren has significantly increased his shot attempts in the past three games, but is only shooting 30.6% from the floor, making 1/12 three pointers. Ben Brust, a surprise at the start of the year, is shooting 31.8% (20% from three). Defensive star Ryan Evans is the next most frequent shooter, making 29.6%, and role players John Gasser and Mike Brusewitz have combined to shoot 38%. Simply, they have been the worst shooting team in college basketball over their streak.
Against Penn State, Purdue shot similarly to Wisconsin, but on a higher level, their shooting hasn’t been that poor – excepting that, they’ve rarely shot lower than the low-40′s. Purdue, oddly, is slipping significantly on the defensive side of the ball. Other than his first year in West Lafayette, Painter’s clubs have been top-ten in defensive efficiency every year, finishing 9th last year. This year, while solid, they’ve ballooned to 34th, and it’s largely come on the back of a lack of defensive rebounding as a result of losing JaJuan Johnson.
The other major factor is simple – Robbie Hummel isn’t the all-conference player he was. Hummel’s rebounding has stayed constant to the levels it was at when he shared the front-court with Johnson (with Johnson’s departure, you’d think his rate would improve), and his shooting is a dismal 36% against major-conference clubs. If Hummel can find his stroke again, the Boilermakers can look to improve.
Despite the fact that Purdue’s problems are more systematic than Wisconsin’s terrifying cold-streak, we think Purdue has the best opportunity to recover – Hummel is a good shooter, and proved it over three years. If he can find his stroke again, he’ll join an offense that is functioning fairly well despite him. The Purdue defensive problems are likely here to stay this year, but this is still a tourney team. Wisconsin, for their part, we’re less positive about. It’s nearly impossible that they can continue to shoot at this clip, but a close watching of their games reveals a team that just simply can’t create good looks at the hoop, and may not have anyone to make them, even if they saw them. If they can right the ship soon, and return to simply shooting “badly” and not “abhorrently”, this team has “NCAA 10 seed” written across them in bold letters.
The rankings:
1. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1)
The Buckeyes dispatched two teams from the dregs of the conference (Nebraska and Iowa) on their own floor by a total of 60 points. A road trip to Champagne and a chance of revenge on their own floor against Indiana raise the stakes this week.
2. Michigan State (14-2, 3-0)
The Spartans’ only action this week was a controversial win over Wisconsin in Madison, breaking their curse. Keith Appling (18 ppg in Big Ten play) has taken a giant step forward in the past three games.
3. Indiana (15-1, 3-1)
Indiana dispatched another ranked team at home, squeaking by the Wolverines by two points, before getting tested on the road against Penn State. The Hoosiers shot 58%, and only won by 6 - they’ll need their defense in Columbus.
4. Michigan (13-3, 3-1)
Michigan managed their first win in six years over Wisconsin, winning by nearly 20 despite shooting 38%, which atoned for a close loss in Bloomington. Jordan Morgan’s work on the offensive glass (13 offensive rebounds in his last 3 games) has helped the Wolverines get by despite some declining shooting performances.
5. Purdue (13-4, 3-1)
After their loss to Penn State, Purdue recovered by handily winning at Minnesota. Keep an eye on Ryne Smith – when he makes his shots, this team wins.
6. Illinois (14-3, 3-1)
Illinois skated by both Northwestern on the road (basically a home game), and Nebraska at home. They keep winning, but this winning streak is on Bambi-legs right now. Hosting Ohio State will give them the opportunity to prove themselves. We aren’t optimistic, even if Joseph Bertrand’s entrance into the lineup (14 ppg on 68% shooting) has given their offense a badly needed shot in the arm.
7. Wisconsin (12-5, 1-3)
Wisconsin games have truly been a treat to watch recently – while shooting 37% from the floor in Big Ten play, they have also supplied the #2 shooting defense in the nation for the year, and held the competition to 39% over the same stretch. How fans in Madison still have eyeballs, we aren’t sure.
8. Northwestern (11-4, 1-2)
Their only action was a two point loss to Illinois on their home floor. With trips to Michigan and Wisconsin sandwiching a game against Michigan State, things are about to get ugly. It’s too bad, because Bill Carmody needs a friend these days.
9. Iowa (10-7, 2-2)
Iowa! In the single digits! Iowa won consecutive conference games for the first time since 2007, which was the last time they once more than a single road game in-conference as well. Iowa hadn’t won consecutive road games since 2005. Think about THAT, Badgers and Gophers.
10. Penn State (9-8, 1-3)
Billy Oliver has shot 10/16 from three-point land in the last two games, and Tim Frazier has handed out 16 assists. Oliver can do nothing but shoot, and Frazier nothing but pass, but there you go.
11. Nebraska (8-7, 0-4)
Nebraska gets the nod by virtue of playing four conference opponents with a combined record of 52-10 while Minnesota lost a home game to Iowa.
12. Minnesota (12-5, 0-4)
I wonder who will take Tubby’s job.
