So. Yeah. Yesterday happened. Somehow we went 4-2 on picks yesterday and came out behind. There’s plenty of blame to go around. Stupid Toledo, showcasing their MACTION PRIDE by giving up a long fourth down pass to run based Air Force of all teams for the game tying TD. Overachieving Air Force and their aggressive ways in going for 2 instead of just taking their chances in OT. The whole Zach Maynard family. Really, yes, all of you. Yep, even you Keenan Allen. I dont think we’ll see a less clutch team than Cal this bowl season or a more assy, undeserving chalk cover than Texas. But, the biggest blame, dear readers, is yours truly the JCB blogger, who is so scared to hemorrage profit on prop bets like we did a year ago that we decided to play just half units on each on this year. We swept all 4 half-unit prop plays yesteray, but that only served to help cover the losses, minus the juice, on two single unit sides. Frustrating, yes. But it can always be worse. Some folks are unlucky and lose a shit ton. We couldnt have been more unlikely yesterday and lost just two tenths of a unit. This year’s Bowl Chronicles sits at 13-8, +3.80 Units. It still hurts to lose dough on a 4-2 days. And we were so close to making a major move, sweeping the whole card and doubling our profits. Oh well. There is always tomorrow. Which, at this pont, is now today. We’re undaunted. Convinced that an underdog run is afoot to take us to the promised land. But, first, how about a little karmic melody to honor are favorite breed of canine, not including Rotweillers, West Highland Terriers and Scooby Doo:
You get the feeling Bowl Season steps up notch with today’s doubleheader. The opening game gives us Florida State-Notre Dame, the brandiest brand name matchup so far in the Bowlapalooza. College football is driven by passion. And part of that passion is hate. These programs, and specifically these fanbases, dont like each other, despite their limited experience head to head, in some sort of college football class warfare/morality play. Of course the rest of America generally dislikes these teams as well. There is a ton of pressure right now on both the Kelly and Fisher administrations, the volume hits the 11 mark for the loser in the aftermath setting up a lot of make it or break it type of discussions for 2012 during the offseason. The Noles were a trendy national title game selection back in August. The Irish were also highly rated, so you would have had a lot of takers had you given out odds that this at least would be a BCS Bowl come the postseason. Instead its a pair of 4-loss teams. But it doesnt ratchet down anyone’s hate. I know my Dad is tuning in specifically to cheer against Notre Dame. Once bowl season grabs his attention, you know we’ve finally found some meat on the schedule.
Oh, and, yeah, the Heisman Trophy winner is also playing tonight when Robert Griffin III and Baylor takes on Washington. That always interests us, as we’ll explain later. Toss in the 5:30 kickoff to start the double dip an hour or so after the four-day holiday weekend begins and, yes, you could say we’re lathered up for the games. And we’ve been icing our groin all day, we dont feel the pain of last night anymore, so we’re boldly going back to the window.
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, 5:30, NOTRE DAME VS FLORIDA STATE. LINES, FSU -4, O/U 46.5
Since we swept the props yesterday, we all of sudden fancy ourselves as sharp prop players. So, of course we checked out the menu for this one. When glancing at the player prop board, you cant help but wonder if the Book isnt trying to subliminally steer us all towards betting the underdog Irish side. Of course, we dont need any such hypnosis or chicanery to roll with the pupsters of any shade, but it always helps. Regardless, check out these numbers for some of the Irish stars: Cierre Woods, O/U 80.5 rushing yards; Michael Flloyd, O/U 92.5 receiving yards, 7.5 catches; Tyler Eifert O/U 4.5 catches. Those would all be all star type games against this defensive statistical monster that is Florida State, which ranks 6th in the nation in total yards, 2nd against the run and 19th against the pass. Conversely, look at the FSU player props. Their leader in receptions Rashad Greene is set at O/U 2.5 catches. Tailback Jermaine Thomas is O/U 45.5 rushing yards and Donta Washington is O/U 60.5. None of those seem like huge numbers against a good, but certainly not great or shut down Irish stop unit. Based on those numbers it looks like oddsmakers are predicting a guadier looking Notre Dame box score. Higher Irish numbers against dominant defensive numbers as opposed to lower numbers vs a D thats merely good? Sounds like the Irish should be favored, right? They’re trying to trick us into taking the points, arent they?
Well, we’re taking them anyway. FSU has great defensive numbers. Notre Dame has really good offensive numbers and good defensive numbers. FSU has average to terrible offensive numbers. The Nole offense is the biggest liability in this game. Well outside of Notre Dame’s habit of crapping down their leg. We think they’ll overcome that enough to at least keep this game within a field goal.
FSU’s defensive numbers are great looking. We pointed out the traditional stats above, but even the new fangled efficiency marks like the Noles. They rank 13th in defensive efficiency and place in the top-10 in most of the defensive numbers they track to forge that number. The Irish, meanwhile, arent that far behind, ranking 18th in the defensive FEI and within the top third nationally in a host of other defensive rankings, be them traditional stats or the newer, fancier ones. But, look deeper. The Irish have performed against four offenses the FEI deem elite: Michigan, USC, Stanford and Navy. The Noles, just one, and thats Miami, a poster child perhaps of some of the head scratching FEI rankings (Another one? Okie State is their #1 D, yet all I hear about is how poor they are on that side of the ball. We’ll file that away for the Fiesta Bowl next week). Notre Dame has faced four different top-11 offenses to the Noles one. The Irish have faced seven offenses in the top third of the country, the Noles just three.
The Irish lost their opener to USF in a freak fest of a game that not only saw Notre Dame turn the ball over like its their job, but saw the worst possible outcomes triggered as a result of seemingly each miscue. Otherwise, its taken an elite offense to, frankly, line up and flat outscore this bunch. When the vaunted Noles D has faced its good offenses, they’ve kind of been worked over. Clemson and Wake tagged them for 35 points apiece and the four O’s in the FEI top third they faced dropped an average of 28 points per game on them. The quite possibly fraudulent Miami offense was the low scorer with 19. I’m not saying thats bad, after all its about the same points per game the Irish allowed when they too played top third offenses. But, the thing is Florida State doesnt come in here with a really good offense. Its decidedly average, lacks a reliable, let alone a game breaking tailback, can be just as fussy at the QB position as Tommy Rees and doesnt have the prototypical scare the shorts off you deep threat of past great Nole teams. They’ve struggled all season to generate long scoring drives, are only average at gobbling up the available yards in front of them and have a terrible habit of getting kicked off the field three and out style. They have one of the worst first down rates in the nation. Any team whose offense is so lame that in lets pedestrian at best offenses like Virginia beat them or Florida hang around with them is going to have problems matching points with an outfit like the Irish. We’ll take the 4-point head start
The Pick: Notre Dame +4 (-120)…….Notre Dame has beed featured as a Bowl Chroncile winner for us both times they’ve bowled during the Bowl Chronicle Era with their wins over Hawaii in 2008 and a year ago against Miami. Brian Kelly has typically been a great coach to bet on, although that has yet to materialize consistently yet in South Bend. People just think FSU is the more talented team. But, i dont think they are. And armed with the worst unit on the field, their offense, I think they lose this outright.
ALAMO BOWL, 9:00, BAYLOR VS WASHINGTON. LINES, BAYLOR -10, O/U 79.5
Two good to great offenses swap helment paint with two atrocious defenses. Its the #1 rated FEI Offense Baylor Bears vs the 94th FEI Defense of Washington. And in the other corner its the 33rd ranked FEI offense in Washington vs the #87th ranked FEI Defense of Baylor. Cue the something’s got to give cliches. Actually maybe nothing gives in this one. We’ve seen a ton of scoring fests already this bowl season with 8 over hitting in 12 bowl games. This has a great chance at adding to the Over bounty.
We’re on the underdog Huskies for one reason, and one reason alone: The Heisman Trophy Jinx. Did you know that the Heisman winner’s team checks in at 9-25-2 ATS in their bowl game? How about that, huh? Its another one of our annual bowl traditions, betting against the Heisman winner. Sure, our tradition of taking the underdog in the Holiday Bowl blew up in our face last night, but what are the chances of tradition being spoiled in back to back nights? Wait, before you answer that, Rich Rod and David Brandon arent in charge of this game, are they? Hey-O!!!
Now, I know what you’re saying: come on Jamie Mac at the JCB, thats all fine and dandy, but have you seen the last two years? The Heisman winner has done just fine. I’ll grant that. Two years ago Trent Richardson and the Tide bucked this trend. A year ago so did Cam Newton and Auburn, depending on when or where you bet. I see the preseason magazines and archive sites like covers.com listing the closing line at Auburn -1, but man I swear we pushed ith Oregon +3. We went ahead and put the push in the above record, but even with a loss, the dismal performance against the number of the Heisman winner’s team stretches back deep into the 1970s. And its taken a Heisman winner on the SEC Champion the last two years to upset this apple cart. Those were elite teams with an elite player. Lets call this another in our long line of honorary Monty Burns We’re Playing The Percentages Strawberry pick of the day. One day we might even track the MBWPTPS picks. I’m sure they’ve been winners over time. Just like I’m sure the Heisman winner wont cover the closing line three years in a row. Dont even think of telling me otherwise, my fingers are in my ears.
The Pick: Washington +10…..nobody was on UW in their bowl game a year ago which looked like a mismatch against Nebraska. Nobody except us, that is. The Huskies were 7-4 ATS this season against FBS foes and were consistent winners for us during the first half of the season, backing them against Utah, Arizona, Cal and Nebraska. The Utah cover was an outright win as an underdog, the Husker game was a cover in a loss, while the Huskies won and covered as short chalk against Arizona and Cal. We lost on UW in short fav spot in November against Oregon St (Yikes, what a strange result. And an even stranger 4rth quarter for UW that day) and they couldnt cover the big +18 for us against Stanford. But, combined with their bowl cover for us last year that gives the blog a 5-2 ATS record with Washington in the last calendar year. I cant believe we’ve been on that many UW games. We love The Sark, I guess. Bottomline, both defenses stink. There will be a ton of points scored. Baylor’s defense makes them a dicey play to cover a big number. The running of Chris Polk will help give UW enough offense to keep this closer than the experts think.
For now, just putting single units on each. After last nights poor luck, we’re just playing it safe. The next four days–Week 17 in the NFL included–will give us more than two games a day to look at and we might unearth a double or triple play or two. Or three. Or four. Stayed tuned to the JCB Twitter feed for updates, possible prop play additions (with five hours till kick, you never know) and commentary.
