So far, so good this year in the bowl season and the JCB’s annual insane experiment in betting as many of the games as possible. We had to survive some late rallies last night, but we went 2-0 in the first night with mulitple bowls games in 10 days. Overall, the JCB is 9-6 ATS this year in bowl season. Breaking that down a bit, it’s 6-4 on actual game sides and 3-2 on props. We’ve just put half units on the props, but all the sides were for full, single units, except for our call on La Tech on the points against TCU last week and last night’s NC State play. Those have been the only double plays so far of the bowl season and going 2-0 in them has given us most of our profit. Bowl season is one third of the way complete and we’re up four units. The next four days are going to be fast and furious and gobble up the second third of the FBS postseason. We’d be stoked if we doubled that number, so lets do this.
MILITARY BOWL, 4:30, TOLEDO VS AIR FORCE. LINES, TOLEDO -3, O/U 70.5
We’re always on the hunt for underdogs that will outrush their opponents, especially in bowl games. Despite the more pass happy nature of modern football, teams that are catching points who end up outrushing their opponents almost always cover the spread. Of course, what help is that? We dont know the boxscores before the games. Wait, do we? Somebody get on that for us. Absent of that, it does always have us on the lookout for matchups that just scream ‘this puppy will outrush the favorite.’ Its why we’re drawn to teams like Navy and Air Force when those service academies are underdogs. So, you would think we’d be all over the Pilots today in this Military Bowl. After all, they’re catching points with their powerful #2 ranked rushing attack that churns out over 300 yards on the ground a game against a MAC Defense. But, no. We’re shunning our love for rushing dogs, our distrust of MAC defenses and risking the bad karma of betting against an academy in a bowl sponsored by the military. Surely, they wouldnt pay off the refs, would they? Nah, not our government.
I cant lie to you readers. I’m taking Toledo mostly because they are my hometown team and who wants to be a Bah Humbug Scrouge and bet against the local team in a bowl game? Not me. I’m cheering for the Rockets, the line is small, they’re more talented, so I’ll take a stab. I know you come here for better, more smart analysis than that, but when you’re making a Homer pick, intelligent discourse gets put to the back burner. Besides, there is always Chitownblue’s hoopage insights like on tonight’s IU/MSU game if you want to chew on some meaty insights.
But there is some educated breakdown in all of this. Yes, I know Toledo is in the MAC. And, yes, I know there defenses are pretty shaky. But, I actually like this Toledo stop unit. Yes, I said that. Yes, I know this team infamously allowed more than 60 points in back to back games last month. But they’re not that bad against the run, ranking 25th nationally, so they have a chance I feel to slow this Air Force triple option attack on enough drives. The Rockets struggle against the pass, but thats not something Air Force is all the good at or something they test the water enough to take advantage of. Toledo might be from the MAC, but they have the better defense here. Air Force just isnt good on that side of the ball. They are way down at 86th in the FEI Defensive Efficiency rankings, one of the worst among bowl teams. Toledo is 60th and have shown a better ability to get off the field outside of those strange back to backers against Northern and Western in early November. But getting back to the Pilots, they are 100th in available yards allowed and 96th in value drives allowed. Both offenses will land their punches, but based on those numbers, I dont think there is a chance Air Force’s defense can slow this team down. I just like Toledo’s three headed monster at tailback, their two efficient quarterbacks and the explosiveness of Eric Page.
The Pick: Toledo -3……In a game where both offenses ought to steal the show, I’ll take the one thats more diverse and explosive. And thats the Rockets.
Props? Props!
We havent played props since the first day of bowl season. But, we’re liking a few numbers in this Rocket/Falcon contest. We got creamed late in last year’s bowl runs by playing too many props, so we’re sticking to the original gameplan of making these just for a half unit.
Adonis Thomas Over 109.5 rushing yards…….He hasnt had the healtiest of seasons, but he’s ready to go tonight and the best Rocket back of the bunch. He had three games of over 130 yards in November. He’s fast, shifty and gets a lot of yards after contact, despite his size. He could very well slip out of here with bowl MVP honors. Wouldnt surprise me at all. Air Force has allowed their foes top tailback to chug out 122.16 yards per game and seen whoever it is go over this total for Thomas in six of the Pilots 10 games against FBS opponents.
Will Eric Page Score A TD, Yes…..look, I realize he’s only caught a score in four of 12 games, but look for the Owens/Danton QB combo to throw at him throughout the game. He could get double digit catches. I think part of the reason the Rockets win this game is their ability in the passing game, Page is a big part of that. He’s at his best in the big games and I think he’ll paydirt tonight. And, he’s my favorite player on the team, grew up down the road from me, so, yeah, lets gamble on him. What could go wrong? Keep in mind, this wins even if he runs one in, or houses it on a return.
Tim Jefferson, Over 49.5 rushing yards…..Jefferson isnt the Force’s leading rusher and he has a lot less rushing yards than you’d expect out of an option QB. But with the winds gusting big time today in the capital and with Toledo likely to struggle at various times against this tricky option, I think Jefferson will be closer to 100 yards than 50 yards by the time the final gun sounds. And, well, we cant have every bet focused on Toledo. We need a silver lining if the Pilots offense starts rolling.
Over 70.5……I swore I would lay off the overs this bowl season, but apparently the Over is hitting every bowl game this year. And friend of blog jallotta has urged me to end my prohibition on the overs. So, we’ll take a stab. Under plays everywhere are high fiving each other.
HOLIDAY BOWL, 8:00, TEXAS VS CALIFORNIA. LINES, TEXAS -4, O/U 48
Ah, the Holiday Bowl. We have a tradition here at the JCB, started years before we began to blog. Always bet the Underdog in the Holiday Bowl. Its annually the craziest bowl of the bunch and the pupster has covered at a 23-10 ATS rate in the bowl’s glorious, high scoring history, including 9 out of the 12 matchups. We actually got off this trend two years ago and took Nebraska as a short favorite. We won, but that Husker team had Ndomkung Suh. We were too afraid to bet against him. We got right back on this underdog bandwagon a year ago with Washington over the same Husker team, minus Suh, and won as well. Texas is chalk here and they lack a game changer on either side of the football that would make me want to bump off the dog like we did in 2009.
I do wonder if Texas even wants to be here. There has been a lot of Mack Brown retirement talk. And while their defense has starred all season, their offense is terrible and I dont relish backing this Ash/McCoy two-headed monster at quarterback in the postseason. Malcolm Brown, their possible next great Longhorn Tailback has become a forgotten man down the stretch. Other than a win over the Aggies, against a team that was dead in the water and pioneered ways to lose games every week, I just havent been impressed with Texas. The Sooners, Okie St and Baylor blew them out of the water. KState beat them despite their QB playing their worst game of the season. They scored 5 points against Missouri. Both of these teams began the season strong, then suffered a losing streak. But Texas never really rebounded to play consistent, winning football. Cal did, with wins in four of their final six games and three out of their last four. Their only loss in Novemeber was a 3-point loss to Stanford. Since a three-game losing streak–that included losses to USC and Oregon–the Bears have averaged 29.33 points per game.
Texas claims to have all the talent in the world, but in this game its Cal thats got the players who’ve performed well this season. In Isi Sofele, its the Bears who have the 1,200 yard rusher. They’ve really rode him as they turned their season around. In Keenan Allen, they have the best receiver in this game. With his running mate Marvin Jones, they also have the second best. QB Zach Maynard isnt an all star, but he’s done a great job of erasing the mistakes from his game during the closing stretch and he’s better at the position than what the Horns have to offer. Sure, the Horns drip with talent on the defensive front 7, but their play, especially the pass rush, has been inconsistent all year. I’ll take the Bears secondary. One critical stat in bowl games, and in college football capping in general, is breaking down how teams do in the red zone. Texas is terrible at it, only converting touchdowns on 51.02 percent of red zone tries. That’s 104th nationally. Nor is it good. Neither is the fact that more than a quarter of the time, they come out empty handed. I dont like chalk that leaves points on the board they way Texas does. I also think there’s a big edge in the punting game to Cal and as long as the Bears can contain Texas’ return game, look for Cal to earn a field position edge throughout. Dont get swayed by the brand name. Texas is just 12-12 in their last 24 games. I dont think their the better team here, so we’ll take the points. I understand that the best unit on paper in this game is the Texas D, but Cal is strong up the middle on defense. I expect the Horns to harass Maynard with their pressure, but look for that Cal D to make the Texas QB duo beat them. And they wont be able too.
The Pick: Cal +4…..and, so it begins. We’ve almost grabbed equal parts chalk and underdog so far in bowl season. But, its time to go full bore with the pupsters. Every year we seem to go on a nice run this time of year doing so, so let’s hope for a repeat. We might not take another favorite until January. And what better way to usher in an underdog run than taking the points in the Holiday Bowl. The Underdog is 23-10 ATS with 13 outright wins in this classic, making it the Michigan/Notre Dame series of bowl games. Besides, the Pac-12 is 19-6 ATS as bowl underdogs the last decade or so. With Arizona State not covering a week ago in this role, you could say we’re also just playing the percentages in this one.
We went 2-0 last night, winning a single and a double play. Tonight, we’re risking a single unit on each contest, with those half unit prop unit prop bets. Good Luck!
2011-12 Bowl Season, 9-6, +4.0 Units
Double Plays, 2-0, +4.0
Single Plays, 4-4, -0.4
Half Unit Props, 3-2, +0.4
