Merry Bowl Season, Everyone. As mentioned on the JCB Twitter, its snowing in my parts, a steady drizzle of flurries, so we might have a white Bowl Season after all. Hopefully, we’ll have a few Bowl Season Miracles and we can add up a nice profit between now and January 9. Just a quick to post to summarize our official card on opening day of this final run of college football.
We’re already on Wyoming +7 in the New Mexico Bowl and Ohio U +2 in the Famous Potato Idaho Bowl. Bookmaker Tom Fuhrman was on the On The Line Podcast yesterday over at Kegs ’n Eggs, and he revealed there was a lot of one sided action on Utah State, pushing the OU Bobcats from chalk to slight underdog. I dont know, but I like being on the House’s side, even if most of the late action, like mine, is coming in on the green and white. We’re also ignoring coaches history in bowl game with this pick. Hey, we like to live dangerously. Solich isnt the greatest in the postseason and he’s lost all three starts as OU’s head man, but I feel he’s got the QB the get off the snide in this one.
But, we’re not done with this Ohio U/Utah State match. When a pair of feisty midmajors hook up in a bowl game and you love the playmakers on both sides, then the prop board proves way to tempting. The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl might be one of the better games of the bowl seaosn and the JCB spiced it up with three prop plays to go along with the Ohio U +2 pick.
Robert Turbin, Over 103.5 rushing x 1/2 Unit
Turbin has gone over this mark in half his games this season, with two others in the high 90s and two more in the high 80s. Wost case, he’s going to be in the ball game of this number and we’ll be one or two nice late runs away from hitting the Over. Bottomline, this is a hedge bet disguised as a prop bet. I can win the bet on Ohio U with Turbin going over this total, but I can almost guarantee that if I lose the Ohio U bet, Turbin will sky past this rushing total. Meanwhile, on the RAWRCATZ side……..
LaVon Brazil, Over 85.5 receiving yards x 1/2 Unit
Tyler Tettleton, Over 1.5 TD passing touchdowns x 1/2Unit
If I am going to blow Tettleton in a post like I did in the JCB’s Famous Potato Bowl preview, then I ought to put some money where my mouth is on some of his stats with prop plays. He’s tossed 2 or more scores in 10 of 13 games. I think he’s good for at least a double shot today against the 77th ranked Utah State passing defense. We’re also going to take another bite on a Brazil prop. We had this in their showdown with Temple in November and in the MAC CG earlier this month and won both times. He’s hit the century mark in 6 of his last nine games, so we’re all over what we think is way too low of a number.
Ohio U -0.5 over Temple x 1/2……..there are all sorts of nifty prop bets to play during bowl games. A cross referenced fantasy matches pitting teams from separate games are among them. We have little experience in plays like this, so be careful. But, we’re banking with Ohio U here as well. Hey, the Bobcats outscored Temple when they went head to head last month, so why not here as well? Their game with USU will be explosive. While Temple’s game with Wyoming is going to be a little bit defensive minded with a lower score. We’ll take a dare with style of bet. Maybe we’ll like it and play more of these over the next few weeks.
Meanwhile, there is a third bowl game today, the nightcap, kicking off just past 9 pm. I’ll probably need some fresh coffee or move to Red Bull and Vodka by that time. But, we’re not going to let is go by without making a pick and putting a little coin on it.
R&L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL, 9:05 pm. SAN DIEGO STATE VS UL LAFAYETTE. LINES, SDSU -4, O/U 60.5
I like the Aztecs in this one. I mean, we cant just circle every underdog and call it a day, can we? We have a chalk quote to make, right? Besides, I’ve seen the Aztecs play when they lost 28-7 in Ann Arbor against Michigan waaaaaaaay back on the first Saturday of the fall. Now, its the last Saturday of the fall and while nothing revealed itself in that game to make me feel that I have to play this, I do feel the Aztecs have the better team, are stoked to be travelling to New Orleans and will be focused despite playing a Sun Belt foe. A lot of people think this a disinterested bowl favorite. We like betting against those. But I think thats misplaced psychology here with SDSU. The key ingredient there is always being able to point out an obvious jilt or letdown from where they expected to be bowling. I dont think SDSU will sleep walk here, not with the prime time spotlight. Their offense will be too much to handle. The offensive line will manhandle ULL and Hillman will have a huge day. The Aztecs are going to generate more than enough offense to win this game because they will dominate with play action because the 5-2 front of ULL is going to be keying on Hillam. Dont be surprised if Ryan Lindley, whose regressed statistically this year in large part to breaking in a brand new receiving corps, has one of his best games of the season. In the end, some Aztecs had nice receiving seasons despite this being rebuilt from scratch back in September. Colin Locket has developed into a big play guy with 17.3 yards per catch on his team leading 52 grabs. Dylan Denso had 44 catches after just two a year ago. And Gavin Escobar elevated his production after earning 2nd Team Freshmen All American at TE a year ago. He threatened 50 catches, went for 15.6 per pop and quite frankly seemed to be open every time they went to him with the defense’s attention elsewhere. If the 92nd ranked pass defense of the Rajun Cajuns even dares to compensate extra to stop those budding threats, then it just opens the door for Hillman to gash them even more. To be fair, ULL wont get blown out. They have a nice offense with a playmaking quarterback. Eventually, though, I like the SDSU D to get more stops. I think they have a pass rushing edge going against the ULL offensive line and that will snuff out enough drives to let the Aztecs get out ahead and play with a lead.
The Pick: SDSU -4…..I call 31-21 Aztecs. A lot of people like to follow the following bowl betting rules: Bet chalk before Christmas, take the Underdogs after Christmas, then go back to the chalk in the New Year. I dont follow the first part of that as much as I used to as the number of Pre Christmas Bowls tripled since I first heard that rule and the extra games have created a lot more balanced early bowl matchups. That said, since we’re taking both dogs in the first two games, we feel a little comfy grabbing at least one favorite today considering its the stretch of postseason games they historically cover well in. At least thats what I keep telling myself.
Gavin Escobar Over 67.5 receiving yards…..it was a debate between he and the Lockett over 73.5 yards prop. We’re taking a flier on the tight end. He’s going to be open all day way down the field thanks to play action and the D’s overplaying on Hillman. He’s hit this number in six of 10 games played and in three others was only a few yards shy. In the fourth quarter, the Aztecs are going to need to throw him the ball to win. And, we’ll likely be one nice catch from tilting this over going into the final frame. Book It.
Good Luck Everybody! We put full, single plays on all three sides, but just half plays on the props. We’ve had Lloyd Carr Tremendous bowl seasons seen a chunk of profit swallowed by too many bad prop and total plays in the past. We cant help ourselves making the picks, but at least we can limit the possible damage. BOOM MONEY MANAGEMENT! or BOOM ENABLING RATIONALIZING! We’ll find out.
