Sportsbooks in Vegas and in the Caribbean Islands finally released lines for all the bowl games earlier in the week, and, as a result, we’re catching Bowlapalooza Fever. For a day or so, the only spreads we had were on the BCS Bowl Games, but now we have the full slate of odds. Many things caught my attention, but let me quickly focus on one. There are four games with a double digit point spread. We have Boise and TCU as heavy chalk in their pre-Christmas Day bowl games against Arizona St and Louisiana Tech. The other two? The Big 10 is involved in both, albeit as the underdogs. The conference has two matches with Big 12 schools and in both of them they are double digit underdogs: Iowa +14 vs Oklahoma and Northwestern +10 vs Texas A/M. Half the expected blowouts, per the Vegas line at least, are supposed to happen against the Big 10. In 2011, that sounds about right. Otherwise, the Big 10 is involved in a lot of coin flips where the spread is less than a field goal. Here’s a run down of the those games and respective lines:
Purdue -2.5 vs Western Michigan, Pizza Pizza Bowl, 12/27
Oklahoma -14 vs Iowa, Alamo Bowl, 12/30
Texas A/M -10 vs Northwestern, Meieke Car Care Bowl, 12/31
Illinois -3 vs UCLA, Kraft Hunger Bowl, 12/31
Houston -6 vs Penn State, Ticket City Bowl, 1/2
Georgia -3.5 vs Michigan St, Outback Bowl, 1/2
South Carolina -1 vs Nebraska, Capital One Bowl, 1/2
Florida -2 vs Ohio State, Gator Bowl, 1/2
Oregon -6.5 vs Wisconsin, Rose Bowl, 1/2
Michigan -2 vs Virginia Tech, Sugar Bowl, 1/3
Earlier in the week, the blog did an intitial breakdown of the two games between the Big 10 and the mid-majors: Purdue/WMU and Penn St/Houston. Its obviously interesting seeing the lines on those games. I like both Big 10 teams. That Penn State line opened at Houston -9 at the Wynn Casino, was bet down real quickly to 7.5 and by the time the onlines that I use listed spreads and seen the number dip below a touchdown. Everyone loves Penn State. Or maybe they just dont trust Houston as chalk. The JCB faded Houston as -3 and -14 against Tulsa and Southern Miss in their final two games and split. The rubber match in the bet against Houston tour will start 2012.
But, we’ve already talked about those games. We’ll break them down even more as we get closer to game day. Today, lets focus on those two matches with the Big 12. The Big 10 teams are major underdogs in its two games against squads from what many feel was the best performing conference of the year.
ALAMO BOWL, 12/30, 10 pm. IOWA vs OLKAHOMA. Line, OU -14
This is the second best Big 12 team in Oklahoma going up against, what do you think, maybe the 7th best team in the Big 10 in Iowa? That sounds fair. You have a team that was in the middle of the national championship race deep into November against a squad that should just count itself lucky that it was able to cobble enough wins together just to go bowling. Couldnt we come up 
with a more fair matchup? The Sooners deserve to play another team thats been in the top-15 all season like themselves. We fans absolutely deserve a better game than this. We want to to see the Sooners challenge themselves against a peer, not a mediocre 7-win team. Of course, savvy bowl historians will note the similarities between this game and Iowa’s Alamo Bowl clash against Texas five years ago. The Hawks had had an average season and were heavy underdogs against a 10-win Longhorn team. But, they pushed Texas to the wire and nearly won the game in the end. I dont know if I buy the similarities, however. That was a young, up and coming Texas team with Colt McCoy as a first year starter. This Sooner team is a bit more established and have Landry Jones, a Heisman contender at QB. And Iowa is different. That 2006 squad was good, but underachieved during the fall. I dont know if this isnt just a mediocre Iowa outfit. Their dismal season has fans questioning what proper expectations for the program should be. They havent stopped anybody all year. Wont Landry and Sooners, even without all-everything WR Frank Broyles just run up and down the field against them? Will this be any harder than OU’s farce of a BCS Bowl against UConn a year ago? Pretty much every team has been able to drive the ball up and down the field against the Hawks this season. If you are looking for a defense to kick the other team’s offense off the field with good speed, then Iowa is not the stop unit for you. They are 120th–dead last–in the country in permitting drives of 10 or more plays. At least Iowa’s D makes you earn your way down the whole field. They dont give up many big plays. While more than 26 percent of opponents’ drives go more than 10 plays, less than 8 percent of opponents’ drives average 10 or more yards per play. Keeping a defensive wraps on the big play is a Norm Parker defensive specialty and allowing big play drives at such a small rate makes the Hawks 15th nationally in that category. And thats the fascinating thing about this matchup. The Sooners do not pick their way down the field and are only 91s in the country in 10 or more play drives. But, they’re 8th in the land at producing drives that average 10 yards per play, with 21.1 percent of their possessions. Can Iowa force them to nickel and dime their way down the field, shorten the game and have a chance in the end? Can Oklahoma win a game without a barrage of big plays, especially with stud receiver Broyles out of the contest? One offense loves the explosive play. One defense prevents those plays as its specialty. Which style wins out will tell the tale on this one and determine if its a Sooner blowout or a game closer than the experts expect.
MEINEKE CAR CAR BOWL OF TEXAS, 12/31, Noon. NORTHWESTERN VS TEXAS A/M. LINE, A/M -10
One reason I might end up liking the points in this game between Northwestern and Texas A/M is the fact that this game isnt the most important thing right now as far as Aggie Football goes. They dont have a head coach and who they hire as the program bolts for the SEC is of the utmost import compared to this game. I’m never a fan of interim head coaches in bowl games, especially as chalk. Longtime readers of the blog know our love of the Purple Pupster. The underdog in Northwestern football games is 38-21 ATS. However, the pupster is just 6-6 ATS in those games this year. This was not the year to be taking the underdog in Northwestern games on mere principle. After the dog began the year 4-0 ATS, its wheezed to a 2-6 ATS during the final two months of the season. The Cats had enough to compete with Michigan, Penn St, Iowa and Michigan State, but not enough to keep the games closer than the experts expected. As for Texas A/M, if football quarters were three quarters long, they could be Sugar Bowl bound or something. But, alas, football remained a four quarter game and the Aggies redefined the word choke on a weekly basis. Redefined it so much that their head coach Mike Sherman is now on the unemployment line. Just eliminating half the losses they had despite leading in the fourth quarter, and you’re looking at a 10-win outfit. There is no shortage of offense in College Station and Cyrus Gray and company should have a lot of success against the 8th ranked total D and 90th ranked rushing D of Northwestern. The Cats just cant keep people off the field as their rankings of 101th ranking in available yards allowed and 108th in drives of 10 plays or more attest. This should all play into the hands of an Aggie offense allegedly determined to make amenda for an underachieving season. But Fitz’s Cats have been one of the guttier Big 10 teams in bowl games in recent games. They still have never won a bowl game in program history, but they’ve covered three years in a row, taking heavy chalk down to the wire: 2009, Insight, losing 30-23 to Missouri in OT as 14-point dogs; 201o Outback, losing to Auburn 38-35, again in OT, as 9-points dogs; and last year in the 2011 Ticket City Bowl, losing 45-38 as +7.5 to Texas Tech. So, they Cats are 0-for-their last 3, but covered a big number in each and averaged 31.66 points per game. I kind of like tham as bowl underdogs based on what we’ve seen out of Fitz’s teams so far. I sure wont be playing the Aggies as chalk. We know how this game will go down. Northwestern will win the 4rth quarter 17-3 to catch Texas A/M after the Aggies had opened up a big lead. Will it be enough to win or force a tie and overtime? I dont know, but I would expect a late Northwestern rally to at least get this game within single digits and the Vegas line.
