It’s quantity over quality when it comes to Week 6′s 3:30 kickoff window. There’s just one game between ranked foes, when Florida goes to LSU. But there are upwards of 10 games pitting equal(ish) foes as we’re trying to determine various conference pecking orders. I will probably breakout my fourth and fifth TVs for the first time this season (I’ve been attending games the previous five Saturdays and just havent been home when that many sets were needed) and any one of these games could find themselves on the dial in the fourth quarter. I dont expect the national title chase to be really altered by these games, but the middle class of my blog poll ballot might be. And the bottomline is we’re still trying to figure out half of these teams and there will be plenty of evidence coming in from almost every corner of the country during this window. Let’s take a tour……..
Miami at Virginia Tech. LInes, VT -7.5, O/U 45….Always a must see contest, but its also a virtual elimination game in the Coastal Division race of the ACC. Both come in with one league loss already tagged on their record. Both clubs plays Georgia Tech 
down the road, so the winner still needs to do a lot to take the division, but the loser will have 2 conference losses, drop a killer tiebreaker and face a long haul with a lot of help needed to qualify for the ACC Title Game. The box score battle between tailbacks will be fun. David Williams for the Hokies is excellent, while the Canes have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season. A Miami defense thats been gashed for 202 rushing yards a game enters this game down a pair of starters with OLB Ray Buchanan and DT Marcus Forston out for the season with recent injuries, putting a lot of pressure on an already supermodel thin defensive front. Meanwhile on offense, Miami’s Lamar Miller is on pace for a 1,500-yard season and is going for 6.7 yards per pop. He tore up the Hokies a year ago, but so far the best thing about the 2011 Hokies is their improved rush defense. Will the real Canes stand up? Are you the one that couldnt play enough defense and get enough stops to shake Maryland and Kansas State? Or are you the one that looked downright athletically elite in their beatdown over Ohio State? Meanwhile, in Blacksburgh there are a lot of question marks. After playing mediocre competition in September and not really looking all that great in the process, they got pantsed by Clemson in front of their own home crowd. One legit game in, one double digit loss. The culprit? An offense that lacks identity. Can they find that on the fly against the gifted Canes? Did you know that the Hokies have needed seven yards or more on half their third downs? Cant see them winning too many important ACC games if that keeps up. The Hokies figured out how to get themselves in a defensive slugfest with East Carolina. So, they can ugly this game up, for sure. Look for the game to come down to which quarterback, Tech’s Logan Thomas or the Canes Jacory Harris, hurts his team the least. I’d wager that would be the Hokies, but seeing Clemson take them out so easily at home makes me wonder if there’s going to be any Lane Stadium Magic this year.
Kansas at Oklahoma State. Lines, Okie St -31.5, O/U 73……..If you’re looking to play chalk, the Cowboys ought to be the biggest frontrunner during this window. No way the Jawhawks hang here. They’re going to lose big, but at least Turner Gill’s troops can do so with virtue. I’m sure that will warm Jawhawk fans every second of this impending woodshed. The Pokes are the biggest favorite on the board during this set of games. Its too bad sportsbook.com isnt offering OSU on their highest scoring team prop board because I’d take the Under on teams that outscore them today. If you can find stat props of Cowboy players, go ahead and take any of the Overs. Okie State is 23-12-1 ATS as home chalk the last decade. This game has 63-20 written all over it.
Arizona State at Utah. Lines, ASU -4, O/U 48.5……..A must win for Utah if they harbor any notion of playing in the Pac-12 title game in their innagural season. And for the Devils, a win could all but cement their place in the league finals, barring a major collapse. Not bad for a club that only went 5-7 last year and was on a 11-21 straight up run against FBS foes coming into this year. Dont forget that USC is ineligible for the league title game, so second place in this division qualifies you this season. UCLA, Arizona and Colorado wont be factors, outside of possible spoiler role, so it really comes down to these two. The Devils already own a win over the Trojans, so adding the Utes to their collection of early scalps would really make things difficult for anyone else in this division. A week ago, ASU showed signs of their troubled past, but pulled through to victory over an undermanned Oregon State squad. They gave the ball away on each of their first three possessions. Obvious Statement Alert: They probably wont get away with that again on the road at Utah. 
The Utes have already lost to USC and a week ago were trounced by Washington. We’ve learned that maybe they’re a great non-BCS team, but a pretty bad Pac-12 game. They wont have any chance to win this division if they cant defend home turf better in this one. Even with a win, they still would be behind the Devils in the standings. The problem for the Utes is their top QB Jordan Wynn is out for at least the next couple of weeks with a shoulder injury and they’re turning their season over to untested Butte College JUCO transfer Jon Hayes. He looked decent in his first FBS action of his career coming in for Wynn after the injury, but this is a different ballgame. Is it a good thing to be going against an assassin like Vontaz Burfict with your backup QB? Probably not. The Devils arent a one-man gang on defense either. This has gone from a game where they would be expect to lose to one where now they are expected to continue showcase their legitimacy. I still think this is a major trap for ASU. Utah is also one of the best underdog programs in the land, so I wont be one calling it an upset if the Utes indeed muddle up the division chase with an outright win.
Iowa at Penn St. Lines, PSU -4, O/U 45.5……I touched on this game a bit during the week’s Pick-4 post. Can the underperforming Iowa defense stop the underperforming Penn State offense? Can the Air Iowa attack maintain this new identity against the 6th ranked pass defense in the nation? Weakness vs Weakness and Strength vs Strength. Sounds like a great matchup. I am standing firm with what I said on the MGoPodcast. The only thing I trust in this game is the Iowa pass offense. The one thing we can count on is the Hawks spraying the ball around the field with James Vandenburg pulling the trigger and using Marvin McNutt, Keenan Davis and an assortment of tight ends for some downfield offense. I think they can get enough points out of the passing game to put this one away. The Hawks have won 9 of 11 matches with PSU and held them to a combined 13 points the last two seasons. The Nits might find a bit more offense this year going against the rebuilding Hawkeye defense. But, I think Penn State is a little overrated themselves on defense and will be severely tested by the first legit aerial attack it will see. The Lions are 3-10 ATS as home chalk. I’m not sure what my final card of the day will look like, but expect Iowa +4 to be one of the highlights.
Illinois at Indiana. Lines, Illinois -14.5, O/U 53.5………..Since I got teased on the MGoPodcast for not knowing my alma mater’s exact schedule by heart, I will include this game on this list. Besides, its a nifty social experiment. The Illini are in a classic sandwhich/trap game situation, playing a week after a come from behind win over rival Northwestern and the week before hosting Ohio State. Going on the road to Bloomington should be a walk in the park, but sharps have been making money for years betting against teams in this sandwich type spot the Illini are in. So, I dont recommend playing chalk. But I am not saying take the underdog either. This is Indiana Football, afterall. You dont profit longterm by backing Hoosier Football. Its a blog rule to bet with your heart and take your team a couple times out of the year. It helps rediscover your soul you lose by being a degenerate gambler. But when it comes to Indiana, I only implement that rule during basketball season.
Missouri at Kansas State. Lines, Missou -4.5, O/U 55.5…..If Kansas State beats Missouri, does that mean they get the Tigers impending SEC invitation? They should make those the stakes. Because determining the pecking order for the Holiday, Alamo and Pinstripes bowls just isnt enough juice. Besides, it would be a thrilling part of Missouexpansionaloosa. They might as well pay for the 
SEC bid because either team would have about the same sort of luck in those new digs: A lot of pain and remaining miles away from any league championship. Seriously, Missouri, you cant even win this league, why relegate yourself to annual SEC poundings? Being able to win the Big 12 North in down years for that division isnt the type of program that will thrive in the SEC. But every league needs its Indianas and Purdues, and at least with Missou you have a much more capable version. Of course, its all conjecture at the moment. It seems the conference realignment stuff changes every day. On the field, can Collin Klein keep this up? The first-year KSU QB has carried the football more times than anyone else in the Big 12. He’s had at least 19 carries in each of KSU’s first four games and rolled up 93 and 113 yards respectively in upset wins over Miami and Baylor. A week ago against the Bears was the first time this season that Klein threw the ball more than he carried it. KState has been one of the more clutch teams this year, pulling out three wins already this season despite trailing in the fourth quarter. For Missouri, its the third start this season on the road against a ranked foe. They already lost at Arizona State and Oklahoma. The Tigers have their own running capable QB in James Franklin who, like his KSU counterpart, has the most carries on the team. In a losing effort against Oklahoma, he racked up 391 total yards in offense, including more than 100 on the ground. How will he fare against the improved and active front-7 of KSU? Currently, KSU is a top-10 defense, but other than Baylor they havent played any really top shelf offenses. But they got enough stops against the Bears to hang around and win. Their D got a huge boost with the return of LB Jarell Childs from injury. He was critical in keeping a lid on Robert Griffin. Look for him to be tracking Franklin all day. KSU used the Bill Snyder Template For Beating An Athletically Superir Team in their win over the Bears, look for them to try and milk the same formula to a win today. If Franklin can play a smarter game than Griffin did a week ago for the Bears, it might not matter.
Florida at LSU. Lines, LSU -14, O/U 42.5……..Dont you think a lot of the luster in this match has come off in the wake of the Brantley injury? Baton Rouge and your backup quarterback just doesnt sound like a recipe for a fun afternoon of football. And its part
of the reason this line has gone from its summer line of a single touchdown LSU chalk to its game week line today of LSU -14. So what should be a marquee game of the year now looks like just another SEC dance for LSU en route to its epic tilt next month with the Crimson Tide. But its also the first time to legitimately compare those two with something resembling apples and apples. Its the first common foe. If Florida goes in there, hangs around and even has a chance to win, that might be enough to sway a reversal on the top-2 on my blog poll ballot. So thats important. Maybe more so, it could impact the current line for that SEC Super Bowl in Tuscaloosa in four weeks. The Tide are -5 right now for that game, but a so-so effort today out of LSU could jump that line to at least a touchdown come Monday morning. A lights out effort by the Tigers might shrink that line, but I doubt it. Nothing short of an Alabama loss or some sort of run of dismal efforts in victory is going to make the Tide a cheaper play than they are now. Getting back to here and now, should Tyrann Mathieu be a Heisman frontrunner? I cant shake the fact that he should be. But he’s not even listed with odds at sportsbook.com where Ander Luck at +300 remains the chalk among the 14 players they have on the board. If he has a game against Florida where continues his knack of conjuring up game changing plays, there will be certain momentum behind his candidacy, regardless of those odds. Follow that up with, for example, a pick-6 in a win over Alabama and he could become the a Woodson-like foil in this veritable crowning of Luck.
Air Force at Notre Dame. Lines, ND -14, O/U 55.5…….Notre Dame has won three in a row since their 0-2 start. And you know what? They arent losing again this year. Well, let me refine that. That arent losing again until their regular season closer at Stanford. And I cant shake the feeling that game will be for a BCS At Large berth, although the Cardinal may still have the Pac-12 automatic berth still on their table. I’m just feeling this Irish team. They shot every toe off their foot twice over in dropping those games against Michigan and USF to begin the year. But you have to love how they’ve responded. Some teams stay in the dumps, but the Irish have come out swinging. They wont roll over the Force, but eventually they ought to tuck this one away by double digits. The mismatch is the Irish and their ability to run all over the Pilots, with the 1-2 punch of Cierre Woods and Jonas Gray. Despite an alleged athlete disadvantage, the Flyboys always put together quality pass defenses. But the Irish wont need the Rees/Floyd combo to dominate here. The Irish will milk that disadvantage, all day. Can you find a prop on Cierre Woods rushing yards? Grab the over. Judt do it. It should be a fun game. Air Force isnt a sacrificial lamb and can hang around with enough big plays out of their triple option attack. They need to be fundamentally A-plus and get some key short fields with either the Irish poor punting game or love of herp derp turnovers coming into play to pull off the upset. I think eventually they’re just a speed bump on an Irish win streak that should last deep into November.
Southern Miss at Navy. Lines, Navy -1, O/U58……Is this a real game or something like the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl in disguise? Whatever. It gives me a chance to play Navy, so thanks to whomever made this game happen. Well, at least thanks for now. A week ago, I lost on Navy. The first time in seven years I’d lost playing Navy in the Air Force rivalry. I should have known better. In fact, I did, in this post a week ago, mentioning my suspicion of Navy suddenly being the favorite in this series after years of catching points. When you have an addiction, sometimes you just cant help yourself. Thats part of the deal. Its in the contract. I chickened out two weeks against South Carolina and they covered. I took them in a role I generally dont like them in and it bite my in the ass. My luck couldnt have gone totally south on Navy, right? I dont think so. Sign me up here. Its not nearly a complete college football season until I cash a Naval winning tickets. And thats all I have to say about this game.
Boston College at Clemson. Lines, Clem -20.5, O/U 55.5…….Insert Now Is The Time For Clemson To Choke joke right here. Herp Derp. Easiest joke to make, everyone is doing it. Of course, Clemson will falter at some point this year. Its what they do. Heck, they might even sleepwalk a bit through this one after the killer lineup of games they’ve had the last three weeks. But the Eagles just dont have the guns to make them pay if they do. This is fast becoming one of my favorite teams to watch, so I’m tuning in. Either I get to see another chapter in the Sammy Watkins Show, or the proverbial Clemson collapse. Good theater either way.
Pitt at Rutgers. Lines, Pitt -7, O/U 52.5…….Winner gets a leg up in the Big East race. Does anybody care? Rutgers had a signature win over Syracuse a week ago. Wait, can you have a signature win over Syracuse yet? Well, in the Big East that counts. The Panthers come in off the true legit win. Their home pantsing of USF makes them contender 1B with hated rival West Virginia. We’ve been here before with Pitt, however. They put themselves in the Big East driver’s seat only to crumble. Can the new coaching staff and their up tempe spread style prevent that this year? A road win over the Knights isnt going to leap them into anybody’s rankings, but it might show that the flaky Panthers are a thing of the past. I have no clue if Rutgers is any good or if I care. I can see myself in a little more than two months, however, taking the points with whatever CUSA team they might be playing in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, however. So, thats something to look forward to. The over/under total seems way too high for a Big East game, especially one with Rutgers. This game might be worth while if the total does approach that number.
