Its been a slow posting week, but lets pick up the pace now that the football weekend is formally here. The Pick-4 game is a great way to start. We’re getting into the heart of October and we have a classic race at the top between proven prop players. One thing we know is that the JCB wont be part of the chase. Egads. The leaders have already doubles us up. Well, I guess that’s what putting up 1-3 records like its your job will do for you. There are plenty of folks down there with me, but most of them have skipped a week or two. But you have to hand it to me. Its quite the skill being able to out think myself on these props while fooling nobody else in the process. That takes skill. Right? Please say it does. Anyway on to this week’s props. We’re focusing on the new found identities of Texas and Iowa in their toughest brawls of the season so far. The amazing set of Arkansas wide receivers. And the continuing tire fire saga of the Ohio State offense. Good luck. Please go 0-4. For my sakes. Then again, I’d probably only gain a point on y’all, so, what the hell, go ahead and keep nailing this.
Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 118.5……..The Red River Shootout. Dallas State Fair. Sooner vs Longhorns. Both ranked in the top-10. And the best news is for the first time in years, kickoff is not conflicting with a home Michigan game. So I get to sit at home and watch one of the best rivalries live and in High Def. Oklahoma is favored by 10 points. Has Texas cured itself of their 2010 ills well enough to even compete here, let alone win this game. While WEEE EXCITE to finally watch this live, I dont have my hopes up for a classic. Eleven of the last 14 matchups have been decided by double digits. So you know what would make this game even more interesting? If you answered by making it a Pick-4 Prop, then tell them what they won, Beano. We’ve picked Texas total rushing yards because thats the key stat here. Can Texas run effectively, keep the football out of the hands of the powerful Sooner offense and shorten the game? Or do the Sooners ambush the Horns right away, forcing Texas away from any gameplan that involves their new found quality rushing attack? Against Tulsa, Missouri and Ball State, the Sooners allowed at least 119 yards on the ground. The Horns have to hit that mark to stay in this ball game. Against Florida State, the Noles ran for just 1.1 yard per carry, thanks to all sorts of negative rushing plays from QB sacks to reverse plays blown out by the fast pursuing Sooner stop unit. But even without those losses, the Noles running was stoned. The heroes for Texas in this chase are senior Foswhitt Whittaker and freshman Malcolm Brown. It’s been the freshman whose been Mack Brown’s workhorse. He’s had at least 14 carries in every game and popped UCLA for 11o yards. Brown is a stud. Rivals game him 5-stars, ranking him the #1 tailback in his recruiting class and #10 overall players. He’s lived up to the billing so far, but getting carries in the Red River Shootout is a lot different that toting the rock against Bruins, Cyclones and BYU Cougars. A year ago, 5-star rookie tailbacks Marcus Lattimore and Michael Dyer held starring roles in breakthrough seasons for Auburn and South Carolina. Can Brown begin to match their feats? I think he can. Well, I think he and Texas will be able to run enough to keep the game close. I still dont know if it will be enough to win the game or cover the spread. But, the Horns, with a lot of Brown, a dose of Whittaker and a couple dashes of DJ Monroe at least will hit this rushing mark. The Pick: 118.5
James Vandenburg Total Passing Yards: 249.5……..I thought about making this Penn State passing yards against the Iowa defense. I’ve been accusing the Hawkeyes on this blog and during the MGoPodcasts that their stop unit looks a lot like Michigan’s the last two years. If they get pantsed through the air by the Bolden/McGloin tandem at Penn State this weekend, then those comparisons just ramp up. Only the 2010 MIchigan should be allowed to make McGloin look like Dan Marino, so no pressure Iowa. So that intrigues me about this game. But, we’re going the other way with this prop, because we like watching the Iowa passing attack of James Vandenburg, Marvin McNutt and Keenan Davis. They’re 22nd in the country in passing yards, but go up against the 6th ranked passing defense of Penn State. Iowa has not played any great passing defenses. But Penn State hasnt played any lights out passing attacks either. Which unit is more legit? The answer will likely tell us if either stands a chance in their respective division races. More so for Iowa. Penn State isnt getting by Wisconsin unless this defense is the 1986 Nittany Lions in disguise, which I tend to doubt. But, if the Hawks passing attack proves dominant this fall, dont think for a second it cant beat MSU and Michigan at home and put themselves in the divisional driver’s seat heading into the finale at Nebraska. Can the tall, experienced secondary of Penn State, that’s permitting just 155 yards in the air, corral this new found Air Iowa, whose averaged 293 yards in the air in his last three outings? I say no. I love the Hawks +4 in this game, think they win straight up and expect Vandenburg to threaten the 300-yard mark in the process. The Pick: Over 249.5
Jarius Wright, Cobi Hamilton, Joe Adams, Total Combined Receiving Yards: O/U 205.5…… Both teams need this win to stay in the SEC West, but is that even relevant? I dont think either have the chops to last all season in the chase with Bama and LSU. But, the winner of this game will have the look of the third place team in the SEC West, which makes it the third best team in the whole league and undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country. The reality of their ceiling, however, is the winner has the inside track to the Capital One Bowl and a match with, uh, maybe Michigan? The loser probably will spend the rest of the year on a path to the Gator Bowl and a match with, uh, maybe Michigan? I expect a lot of offense in this one. Since we did an Auburn tailback prop a couple weeks ago, lets focus today on the arguably the best receiving corps in the land with the Arkansas flanker set. We could use an assortment of different groupings of Hog targets for this but we’re sticking with their starting 3. It adds an element of luck to it because Arky uses so many different guys. Who knows maybe this is the game Greg Childs breaksout into 2010 form and takes numbers away from one of these three? Or maybe one of the secondary targets has a career day? None of those would surprise me. Despite last week’s effort against South Carolina, I still dont trust this Auburn defense. The Hogs and Tyler Wilson will put so much pressure on them compared to Garcia and South Carolina a week ago. Can the Tigers tackle at the catch, limiting an Arky specialty of yards after catch? I’m inclined to take any over on stat props when the Tigers are playing. The Pick: Over 205.5
Braxton Miller, Total Offense: O/U 122.5…….Each week gets more and more sobering for Ohio State. Their effort a week ago was so bad it dropped them from 91st in the country in total offense to 108th. And now they play a Blackshirt team seething mad after hearing all week about LOL WELCOME TO THE BIG 10. At home, we all expect them to send a message through Ohio State, for whatever that means this calendar year. Dont laugh, but going up against the Huskers might be easier for the Bucks than what we’ve seen. A month ago, the Canes had the benefit of two bigtime returning starters, giving their D extra fire heading into the OSU game. A week ago, they played MSU who might just have one of the best stop units in the land. Something is off with Nebraska, we’ve been saying it all year on the podcasts. We’ll see how far off if they let the Bucks do damage. Washington and Fresno had little trouble running the football and controlling the game for long stretches just flat running the football. Ohio State can do that and maybe, just maybe, another week of practice allows for some progress for the Bucks. I know that cant throw worth a darn, but with Miller, Hyde, Hall and that offensive line, they should be able to run a little. This total seems low. But I’m still going under. Can Miller do anything in the air? Nebraska wont respect that a lick until he beats him once or twice that way. One or two explosive passing plays would probably tilt this over. However, I think the only way the Bucks stay in the game is if they get great field position. Like primo field position after 6o yards kick returns from Jordan Hall or after 50 yards on a return of a Martinez mistake. Heck, or even scores off those plays. The Bucks just cant drive the field against anyone, unless its Akron. Lincoln and a bunch of angry Blackshirts arent Akron. The Pick: Under
