Alright, this contest is beginning to tick me off. Nevermind that I’ve only got four props correct since my solid 3-1 mark opening week. I can live with that. Nevermind that our defending champ BCRuss apparently is a Pick-4 juggernaught. I mean, they say dynasties are good for ratings, maybe that works for page counts too? I dont even mind being five off the lead set by BCRuss and OwenY. But seeing somebody skip the first week, then go on a 11 out of 12 run, just burns my hide. Look out MDurham07, the JCB has resources and we’re not afraid of using them. We’re sending a boatload of coolers your way, so good luck staying on the right side of luck. In other contest news, how about that Longest TD prop in the Okie St/Tamu gane last week. First time in Pick-4 history a prop went Over in the first minute of the game. I was surprised that not a lot of folks threw a DOUBLE PLAY out there. We’re keeping that in the rules this week. All plays are worth ONE point, but all players have the ability to make one of these four a DOUBLE PLAY. Just put a ‘x2′ after the designated pick. You have this option, but you dont have to do a double play. Later in the year, we’ll make it mandatory, but for now, its just an option in your back pocket. This week’s props have a decided prime time flavor with three night kicks involved. Good luck and have fun watching the games this weekend!
Michigan State, Total Rushing Yards: O/U 110.5
The blog might a lot of noise by declaring the Michigan State offensive line not only dead on arrival, but so bad that its going to crush all of MSU’s plans this year. We’ll see in this game just how close to correct we are. Ohio State has some issues in its lineup this season, but its defensive line is not one of them. Over the course of the 8-game Big 10 schedule, we might be way wrong on this MSU line. But this just looks like a terrible matchup for them against the defensive lineof the Buckeyes. The Spartans were in disarray two weeks ago against the Irish, regardless of what crazy formation they tried. My favorite? Lining up a TE to the left of the center and the other four offensive linemen in a row to the right. I dont know what the goal was, but it didnt work. However, lets say MSU plays above its head up front and stones the OSU defensive line? Baker and Ball could have a field day against these linebackers if they can crack into open field. There was a play against the Canes two weeks ago that typified the state of the rebuilding LB corps. Sweat was too slow on his run blitz and missed the ball carrier, Etienne Sabino took a poor angle and he missed, then DB missed a tackled, all leading to a big gainer. The Canes and Lamar Miller ran all day against the Bucks. This prop doesnt ask the Spartans to do nearly as much. But, our motto around here it to always put our money where our mouth is. We’re sticking to our guns. This MSU OL sucks and is going to get eaten alive. Baker and Ball will have their stellar games this fall, but Saturday wont be one of them. The Pick: Under 110.5
Montae Ball/James White Total Rushing Yards: 145.5
Working theory. This isnt a vintage Blackshirt team. Not saying they cant win the Big 10 this year with their defense, but its not a vintage year for the conference either. Crick and Steinkuhler have been good up front, but there’s something off about the Husker stop unit. But I honestly cant put my finger on it and I’m open to the possibility that its just a case of going through the motions during their preconference slate. But, I cant shake how well Fresno and Washington ran the football at the Huskers. They both were dedicated to the run and controlled large portions of those games. Fresno in particular popped off nice run after nice run, running right at projected all-conference LB and tackle machine Lavonte David, throwing a lead fullback, pulling guard and trapping TE at him at various times. Enter Wisconsin. Only the manliest manball team in all of manball land that is known as the Big 10. From what I saw in their two games against decent to good competition, the Huskers are going to have trouble stopping the White/Ball machine, especially given the Badgers balance. But this is also Wisconsin’s first real game of the season. We’re all excited just to see them finally step up in class. This isnt UNLV or South Dakota St. But I am sticking with my working theory. The Badgers will have too much offense and while Wilson and Toon will make some eye opening plays in the passing game, it will be the smooth, powerful and relentless rushing attack that impresses us the most when this game is done. The Pick: Over 145.5
Sammy Watkins Receiving/Rushing Yards: O/U 122.5
One right of fall is the annual rise to heights of Clemson only to be followed by a thud. Is their a program out there that handles expectations and good times worse than Clemson? Of course, they’re hotter than sliced bread after consecutive breakout wins against Auburn and Florida State. But can they maintain and pull off another big win this weekendwhen Clemson plays at Virginia Tech? What’s different from this year’s Clemson teams from those in the past? They’ve developed some swagger. We’ll see if they can keep it, but one reason in their favor is the emergence of playmaker Sammy Watkins. The freshman was one of the hottest recruits in the nation a year ago. 5-stars. Offers from a host of SEC, ACC and Big 10 schools. Ranked 15th overall in the nation in the Rivals top-250 prospect list. And, he hasnt disappointed. He was the best player on the field in those wins over Auburn and the Seminoles. Is he the X-factor downfield that Clemson has lacked in past years when expectations climbed? I think there’s a good chance he is. But he’s facing a big step up in play this weekend. Auburn’s defense is rebuilding. Florida State has a great secondary, but they were banged up and not at full strength a week ago in the game. On the road against Bud Foster’s defense? Dont think for a second that Foster doesnt have a plan to take him out of the game. Or is the plan to let Watkins get his and not let the rest of the team beat you. Regardless, a potentially juicy head to head between the super frosh and Hokie CB Jayron Hosley. We’re making this prop a a combined receiving/rushing yardage one because the Tigers do like to run Watkins 3-5 times a game so far. I dont know about this week, however. Its Lane Stadium at night. Regardless of situation, I wont bet against anything Hokie under those circumstances. The Pick: Under 122.5
Chris Rainey Rushing/Receiving Yards: O/U 105.5
Ho Hum. Another college football Saturday and another major SEC showdown. This week its Alabama going to The Swamp to face the mighty Gators. I’m interested in seeing if Alabama can make a statement to not only give me pause for voting LSU and not them #1 in the Blog Poll, but also if they can shake my belief that its the Tigers, not the Tide with the SEC’s best defense. Its a moot argument in a way, since the teams will play each other in a little more than a month. But in Swamp, the Tide face a huge challenge trying to reel in Florida’s do everything back Chris Rainey. I wont lie. I had no clue this kid led the Gators in both rushing and receiving through their first four games until I began hunting around this week for Pick-4 props. He’s gone from solid contributor to The Man in his senior campaign. He might hit a career high in rushing yards before the midseason mark. He’s already surpassed his total yard clip from 2008 and 2010 and is a nice game against the Tide away from passing his 2009 benchmarks. Of course, a good game against the Tide is easier said than done. But of the running options Florida has, Rainey might have the best style suited for success against the tough Bama D. Can the Gators win without an ace effort from Rainey? Probably not. I expect Weiss to do everything possible to get the ball into his hands. He’ll capture a little Swamp Magic and hit on a couple big plays. I think he hits this over, but it wont be enough for the Gators to win. The Pick: Over 105.5
So what do you think will happen? Play Pick4 now.
