We had a great first week of Pick-4. It was so exciting, the Michigan defense decided to get involved, hitting the Over 57.5 yards for longest touchdown on the Jake Ryan pass deflection, Brandon Herron INT for a score. This means MICH can call the Turnover Play whenever they want, right? Of course, prop bettors who actually wagered on this, didnt win as every single bet on the Michigan game was canceled out with a return of your money. Games have to go 3.5 quarters for Vegas to count it. We’re not that strict here. That play happened, its in the box score and those who played the Over are the winners. It’s not a Pick-4 prop this week, but I noticed at BoDog right now that the longest score prop for tomorrow night’s game in Ann Arbor is actually shorter, at 54.5 yards. Something to think about. And how about that Kellen Moore/Aaron Murray passing yards prop? The total was 499.5 and they feel just short with 496 yards. Wow. Under players win, while we’re left wondering about the awesomeness of the JCB oddsmakers almost nailing that on the dot. They are like Thermoses in that war room: They just know.
Anyway, we had no perfect scores last week, but there is a holy mess of players who went 3-1. Let’s see if anybody can separate from the pack. First, some of the props we considered, but left on the cutting room floor: Will Brian Kelly’s sunburn get worse; Will Laner Kiffykins go for 2 in the first half; Over/Under on fans in Ann Arbor who pass out before 5 pm; Does Joe Pa thinks he’s coaching against Bear Bryant, yes/no; Time Of Game Steve Spurrier benches Stephen Garcia; Over/Under ‘For Sale’ signs on Mark Richt’s lawn by dinner time; Total penalty yards for Vontaze Burfict; and how many national recruits will Michigan State rake in this weekend playing Florida Atlantic.
Instead, we settled on these four. Good Luck, fools. You’re going to need it.
Trent Richardson Over/Under 112.5 rushing yards…….Did you know that Richardson has gone over 85 yards only five times in his Crimson Tide career? Interesting. Two of those games were in his second and third career games as a freshmen in 2009. So, just three times in the Tide’s last 25 contests has he even gone over 85 yards. Of course, one of those games was against Texas in the National Title Game two years ago and, naturally, one year ago in this spot when he ran up 144 yards against Joe Pa’s stop troops in the Tide’s 24-3 win over the Nits last season. And, his lack of actual, eye popping rushing yards has one large mitigating factor: Being second string behind Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. He’s only coming off a 13 carry, 37-yard effort against Kent State last week, but can you put any stock in the Tide’s boxscore against the Golden Flashes? It doesnt take much imagination to envision him running hog wild in Happy Valley. But, I trust Paterno and company on the defensive side of the ball. They have matchup problems, but maybe not in the run defense. Guarding Marquis Maze on the perimeter and mustering up offense enough to cross the street are the real problems here. But, I think they can bottle up the Tide rushing attack, at least enough to keep one guy from going nutso. I’ll take the chance. The Pick: Under 112.5 yards.
Russel Wilson, Total Yards, O/U 275.5 yards……Is Wilson the ultimate Heisman darkhorse? He’s playing on a team that ought to play for a conference title and he’s going to rack up some guady stats along the way. He’s been racking up impressive stats already during his college career, but in the obscurity of NC State football. Every time he rips off a run like his TD scamper a week ago against UNLV, whomever is announcing will note how much of an added element he brings to Wisco and somebody out there in Heisman voting land will add him to their ballots. Who knows? But if the Badgers end up in the Rose Bowl again, you can count on him being a major factor in at least Big 10 MVP honors. If he’s dynamic enough, the Badgers could have a Heisman contender. As for this matchup, I think Wilson just adds, adds, and adds to his statistics. The Pick: Over 275.5 yards
Michigan vs Notre Dame, Second Quarter Score: Irish -3.5……..This prop covers the second quarter score only during the annual hate fest that is the Irish/Wolverine rivalry. Why the second quarter? For me, its the true litmus test on the new coaching staff in Ann Arbor. Not how they use Denard, not can cobble together a serviceable defense, not can they teach anybody on campus to kick the ball. Nope. I am judging the new sherrifs in town by how Michigan does in the second quarter. A year ago? It was a fucking disaster. The Wolverines were thumped to the tune of 194-83 in the second quarters of their games last season. As a result, they rarely got to halftime in any important game in legit range of their foe. Can the new coaches change this? Can they make enough improvement on the field and hold games together better in the early going so that perhaps their talented ace in the hole Denard Robinson has a chance to win games in the fourth quarter. That’s something that college football fans were robbed of last October and November: The chance to see Denard play with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. Michigan outscored their opponents in every other quarter a year ago, but by being drubbed by almost a 2.5 to 1 margin in the second 15 minutes torpedoed the whole season. Seven times they were outscored by at least 10 points in the second stanza. Michigan was able to tie UMass 10-10 in the second quarter, but the only team they beat a year ago in the second quarter was, guess who? The Notre Dame Fighting Irish. But, they needed an historic and magnifcent 87-yard TD run by Denard to make that happen. A week ago? Michigan won the second quarter 20-3. A turnaround or just a fluke from playing a MAC team? In the first legit showdown of the season, I am as intrigued by how the second quarter goes down as anything else. Maybe its just an early round of Maize and Blue Kool Aid in advance of the weekend, but In Hoke I Trust. The Pick: Michigan +3.5.
Robert Woods (USC) Over/Under 7.5 catches…….This kid is on fire. And not just his 17-catch effort a week ago against Minnesota, but dating back to last October. He is the next, great USC star. And that’s what he was brought to campus to be. Not only did Rivals give him the 5-star stamp of approval, but the gurus named him the #1 ‘athlete’ of his 2010 class. He answered right away with a 65-catch season a year ago as a freshman. But, he started slowly with just 13 catches in the first five games. Over the final eight games last year, he snared 52 balls, almost twice as much per game as his first month-plus of his career. Last week’s 17-catch, 177-yard effort served notice that he’s planning on taking his game up another level. To me, its going to be fascinating how Utah does in their first Pac-12 game against the talent laden Trojans. Can anybody in their secondary match-up? And, because we know its going to happen, I’m pretty sure catches on 2-point conversions dont count as catches in the box score. We have the JCB research team looking that one up right now. Woods has gone over 7 catches four times in his last nine games, but two other times landed right on seven. I got burned a week ago taking an Under with the stud wideout. Not happening again. The Pick: Over 7.5 catches
