The long wait is over. College Football is the true national pasttime. Yet, it plays the shortest schedule of any of the spectator sports we do follow. And its got the longest off season. A liftetime seems to have passed since the last final college football last season. But we’ve finally arrived to the first Saturday of the season. Two huge showdowns tonight punctuate the viewing guide when LSU plays Oregon and Georgia takes on Boise is made-for-TV nuetral game tilts. Everyone knows those are big games. You dont need me to remind you. I prefer talking about the types of games we have tonight after they’ve played out as we begin to weave results into a formative narrative for the season. I’ve also already said a ton about Michigan’s opener against Western over at MGoBlog. So, instead of spilling more keyboard keys on those mega matchups, lets take a quick tour of some of the undercards before making my picks for the week at the bottom of the post. Enjoy the games today.
Akron at Ohio State, noon, ESPN……How bad is Akron? Here’s how bad. I noticed one of the onlines had a prop bet on the highest scoring team today. It listed 20 teams. And made Ohio State the chalk at +350. (South Carolina is co-chalk at +350, with Auburn +500, USC +700 and Michigan +700 the other favorites) Really? The Bucks are likely to basically score the most points today? Its just hard to see Joe Bausermann and a host of brand new, albeit talented, skill position players being the top scoring team. To be sure, this prop board doesnt include the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Florida and other high octane teams or major programs playing a tomatoe can. But, still, come on Akron, show a little fight. If you cant cover the 34.5 at least keep the Bucks from winning on this prop.
Miami Ohio at Missouri, noon, FSN……There are two games this weekend between teams that won at least 10 games a year ago. Everyone knows LSU/Oregon is one those. The other? How about this Missouri/Miami clash? Ah, its true. Was Miami, now with a new head coach, a one hit wonder? How does Missouri look with a brand new QB? It ws a magical season for Miami, but this game is a rematch from one of its roughest outings a year ago, with Missou obliterating Miami by more than 30 points.. The Redhawks have 17 starters back while the Tigers are replacing some critical parts from a year ago. Maybe that’s enough to make this game a lot closer than a year ago. Public betting disagrees as this line shot up from under 17 to over 20 during August. Bookies, whether they like it or not, are on Miami in this one.
UCLA at Houston, 3:30, FSN……Intrigued by both sides here. With UCLA, you have a brand name program, with a brand name coach, on a flaming hot seat. The Rick Neuheisel Era has looked, well, a lot like the Karl Dorrell and Bob Toledo eras. But their worst season in over 20 years is behind them. But I still dont have any expectations for this team. But they are DocSat’s upset pick off the week. Also, Kirk Herbstreit picked them to finish 2nd in their division and earn a berth in the Pac-10 title game because his first place projection USC isnt eligible for the game. Thats a pretty bold prediction to stake on a team thats 8-19 in league play under their current head coach. As for Houston, they get stat machine QB Case Keenum back after missing all but a couple quarters a year ago after an ACL tear. Nobody’s really chattering loud about them, but they might be the best true midmajor (I exclude Boise and TCU in this discussion, much like Butler in college hoops. Those programs arent mid-majors) in the country. If the Cougs are legit, they should tuck this game away and easily cover the -3 number. If they do win, look out. They dont have any other nasty non-league games and a favorable CUSA slate. They could run the tables deep into November if they get by the Bruins.
BYU at Ole Miss, 4:30, ESPN……The Cougars first game as an Independent comes on the road in Oxford in SEC country. Why are the Rebs and Cougs playing each other? They sacrificed to the cause to make us, the college football fans, happier. Ole Miss was supposed to play Boise in this spot, but when the movers and shakers started making waves about a Georgia-Boise pairing to kick off the year, the programs were willing to oblige. BYU was still trying to fill out its slate. Ole Miss wanted at least another known program for a good gate. They made it work. And, as a result, we get to see Boise State take on a first tier SEC team this evening in primetime. You might not want to watch this Ole Miss-BYU game, but you owe it to them to tune as thanks for making one of tonight’s must see games possible.
East Carolina vs South Carolina, 7:00, ESPN Game Plan……We’ve seen ECU take down West Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC and Boise State in recent years. But they were awful on defense a year ago under first year head coach Ruffin McNeil and didnt look anything like the feisty outfit that was at least growing into the Atlantic Coast doppleganger for Fresno State. They gave up at least 42 points in 9 of 13 games a year ago. Are they any better on that side of the ball? If not, they’ll fall farther back from their CUSA contending hey days under Skip Holtz. As for South Carolina, is Connor Shaw really the fulltime QB? Why isnt there a prop for time of game entrance of Stephen Garcia?
Tulsa at Oklahoma, 8:00, FX……Some of the luster was taken off this contest with the suspension of.do-everything WR/PR/KR Damarious Johnson for Tulsa. He’s been sat down for a game after paying a total of like a quarter for several thousand dollars of swag at his girlfriends store. Kids these days. Add in the recent issues in the secondary with starting CB John Flanders being declared ineligible and a BCS Buster on paper becomes nothing more than that. Tulsa needed to be fully healthy stocked to actually win this one. But, they’ll still put up some points and this game will be a pinball machine. Look for at least 80 total points in this game, but a Sooner win in the ballpark of three touchdowns.
If you’re still up watching the post 10 pm kicks between Louisiana Tech-Southern Miss and Colorado-Hawaii, you’re either a degenerate, chasing your bets or both. So, see you all then. First round is on me.
Look, dude, all that is great, but we’re really just here for your picks, so dish the dirt already. We got tailgatin’ to do!
Oh, alright. Fine. Let’s get right to it. These might be anticlimatic. I’ve already touted most of these in the lead up to today. But, lets make it formal.
USF +10 over Notre Dame…..The Irish have been a team we’ve liked to play against in the early going for a few seasons running now. It’s done more good than harm, so we’re back for more this September. With USF, we have Skip Holtz, one of my favorite road dog coaches, going up against a Notre Dame team thats been terrible cashing winning tickets as home chalk for well over a decade now. The Bulls program has won at Auburn, Florida State and Miami in recent seasons. I think they can hold their own against this Notre Dame team.
Fresno +10 over Cal…..Blog Rule: Always take Pat Hill when catching points against a team from a power conference. They’ll have prepared all summer like this is the Rose Bowl. I wouldnt even call it an upset if Fresno won.
WMU/MICH Longest TD Scored Over 57.5 yards……There was a TD longer than this in 10 of Michigan’s 13 games this year. This is also a Pick-4 prop. Dont forget to play. Go play now, then come back and read this final graphs. Anyway, taking the over here puts you on the side of both Denard Robinson hitting a home run and the Michigan defense giving up an obscenely big play. I’ll take my chances.
So, those are the three previously brought up here at the JCB or at Mgo. Here are some new additions:
Northwestern +3.5 over Boston College…..Cant. Resist. Must Take. The Cats. And Points. I’m sure this will get me a stern lecture from my friend the Mathlete, but I just cant help it. Underdogs are almost always the play in Northwestern games. I’ve felt all summer this game gets decided by a field goal one way or another, and with that hook sprouting atop the 3-point line, I’m biting. Besides, its the opening Saturday of the season. I need a nooner. Those are the rules.
LSU +4 over Oregon….I’m not sure the Jordan Jefferson suspension wont be addition by subtraction for the Tigers. Jarret Lee stunk way back in 2008, but a year ago was really solid when forced into action. Besides, the biggest impact player missing is on the other side of the field with the Ducks CB Cliff Harris sitting out for violating team rules and driving with a suspended license in the offseason. The Ducks were already replacing a bevy of program all timers on D, and now will alos be without the best best returning player on that side of the ball. I think they are replacing too much on the lines on both sides of the ball. Almost like the NW game, I dont think a FG really separates these teams, so I’ll take the 4 points
Denard Robinson Over 80.5 yards rushing…..He’ll have this by halftime. I am literally out the door and they tempt me this prop. Consider me properly baited. Love it.
USF and Fresno are single unit plays. Northwestern, LSU and the two props in the Michigan game are for halves
By Other Chris September 3, 2011 - 11:05 AM
No Persa — you stand by the 'Cats anyway?
By jamie mac September 3, 2011 - 10:18 PM
Always. The Fighting Fitz are more than one player