Good morning Hooligans!!!
The never ending soccer season passes by yet another mile marker with the opening round of the new English Premier League season. Everyone is throwing out excellent season previews dividing the table already into three, a different three or even eight groups. I could do the same, but how the heck do I know how many groups there are. I’ll let the early season results come in and set the pace for what groups are defined and which clubs fit into each. But that doesnt mean the JCB doesnt have early predictions on the season. Here are the future bets we made, with a game pick for today at the bottom.
Manchester United, Over 81.5 points……..ManU won the EPL a year ago with a mere 80 points, the smallest point total for a champion in years. I think the Red Devils are a great bet to top the table again, but I dont think doing so at a similar number is a good bet. ManU looks better than ever. Maybe somebody like City beats them out at the top, but it wont be because ManU ends below the mid-80s on the final table. ManU has gone over this total in 6 of the last 9 years. I’ll bite on the over and sit back to enjoy a season where I have the best team on paper every weeekend.
Liverpool, Under 67.5 points…..I buy Liverpool’s improvement. And, unlike the last two years, they are legit contenders for a top-4 finish on the table. But, hitting this number requires a 10-point improvement from a year ago. The Reds will be fine in the long run, but I think they might run in place the first couple months as Daglish tries to figure what his best lineup is. I could see a lot of three point outcomes turning into single point outcomes just on a lack of familiarity alone in the early going. Of course, Liverpool still has big problems on the back end. Even once the various midfield lineups click, the Reds could be settling for single points–or worse–on defensive breakdowns. From a fixture standpoint, Liverpool can make a ton of hay down the stretch as they play a boat load of expected second division clubs the final two months. And, all their showdowns the second half seem to be at Anfield. So that could be a problem for the Under. But, hey, maybe Liverpool proves more than ready to wear. In that case, that kind of slate might open the door for us to hedge with Liverpool plays this coming winter and spring. Stay tuned.
Top Goal Scorer
Wayne Rooney, +800……. I am going to break a cardinal rule and mention what I wanted to bet on. I wanted to take Chicharito, the chalk, at +750. But, he enters the season with injury issues, notably a concussion that will keep him out of today and who knows really how much longer. Scotty Bowman is running the ManU information department on this one and nobody really has the clear story. Besides, even though Chicharito deserves to be on the field at all times, he’s still going to have to split enough time with Dimitri Berbatov, so being the top goal scorer might prove too difficult a task. Maybe in 2012-13. So, enter Wayne Rooney, teammate and basically co-chalk with Hernandez, at +800. The thing with both of these guys is they can just go out and play their regular game and end up near the top of the goal scoring charts. That speaks both to their own wonderful talent, but also the talent surrounding them. The difference is Rooney will play a bit more and is in good health to start the season. In my opinion, the odds on these should at least be reversed with Rooney the favorite on the board, but they dont ask my opinion. I hate being a chalk eating Mo Fo, but sometimes its best in these games to take the favorite on the board and whatever meager payout ensues. Rooney is basically chalk, but +800 is nothing to sneeze it. This bet gives me the pleasing aesthetic of taking something both chalky and a prop that has some teeth to its payout.
Luis Suarez, +1450……Suarez and the whole Uruguayian team have become one of my favorite sides to root for when they play together. I am cheering for Suarez because of that, so might as well plunk a dollar down on him to give me a second interest in the top goal scorer prop. Besides, we already know this guy is an elite goal scorer. A full season with a top side in the EPL? He could be heading to something historic. Or maybe he suffers the same fate as countryman Diego Forlan when he toiled practically goalless for ManU. I dont know. Suarez seems the better pure goal scorer. And, he’s just now hitting his stride and his peak. And his 4 goals in 12 games with the Reds last season maybe foreshadows better success than Forlan. I think Suarez nets a goal today vs Sunderland and flirts with the top of the goal scoring table all season. It could be an exciting spring if he’s in contention.
Bonus Opening Round Pick? Bonus Opening Round Pick!
So those are the JCB’s future plays for the whole campaign. But you didnt think we’d go the whole first round without at least one individual play, did you? Are you a first time reader? Silly you. We love the karma of recently promoted sides and we’re hitching a little bit of our wagon to one of them in the lid lifter:
Norwich City +250 to win over Wigan, +230 on the Draw………This game ought to set the tone for the relegation race this season. I am still in shock that Wigan is even playing in the EPL this season. Most of last year, they looked like the worst team in the league. In fact the first time all season that they were out of the relegation zone was during the second half of their final game of the season. But, its not where you spend the season, but where you finish and Roberto Martinez’s team survived to live another year. For Norwich, the Canaries return to the EPL for the first time in more than six years. A year ago in this spot in the opener, Wigan was steamrolled by EPL newcomer Blackpool. Can Norwich provide a does od deja-vu? I think they have a great shot and I’ll take a stab at those odds that they’ll at least take points today at DW Stadium. I think Canaries end up as this year’s Blackpool, a team a lot folks, myswelf included, ended up in love with while pulling for them to survive relegation. There’s something vintage about those green and yellow kits and having top flight football on Carrow Road again. People will fall for it. Look for Grant Holt to become the Charlie Adam cult hero that the Tangerines cultivated a year ago. He has 53 goals and 26 assists in 90 games since joining the Canaries. In those 2 years, Norwich has earned back to back promotions. Can that magic parlay itself over the course of a full EPL campaign. Probably not. But, it will more than enough in the opener vs Wigan. I do like Norwich, but make no mistake, this is an Anti-Wigan pick as anything else. By betting both the draw and Canaries win, we’ll do better than a 60-percent return on investment if Norwich at least earns a point.
We’re gambling on football again. And, even though its technically futbol and not football yet, a soothing calm has nevertheless enveloped us. Enjoy the matches!
