Back in June, sportsbooks began releasing Games of the Year lines for college football, but absent from the big board 
were any contests involving the Ohio State Buckeyes. Saddled with player suspensions, Tat-Gate, the resignation of The Vest and just a boat load of program uncertainty, books wisely chose to ignore any OSU games. Some offered odds on who the OSU coach would be in 2012, but otherwise you couldnt really find a place to get in on any OSU action. That all changed last week with some books finally taking the leap and listing some Ohio State contests, notably sportsbook.com.
This is a big deal because there havent been too many better investments over the last decade or so, than pulling the trigger at the window and taking the Scarlet and Gray Red and Silver. They’re 75-49-2 ATS in the last 10 seasons, 48-30-2 in Big 10 play. They havent had a losing season against the spread since 2003. They’ve been lights out at the Horseshoe, covering basically two out of every three games played on the banks of the Oletangy the last decade. They’ve been a money maker, for sure. Is that over? Was it all about Tressel? Will replacing the back 7 on the D prove to be a Waterloo? Will breaking in a new QB prove to be a demise? Does their seemingly thin depth on the offensive line worry you? Or does this program, still stocked to the hilt with as much blue chip talent as anybody in the country, rally together and with an ‘us against the world, nobody believes in us’ mentality still maintain their status as top Big 10 contender and rack up another 10-win season?
I am not sure the oddsmakers know just yet either. Regardless, they’ve released some OSU lines and its even more confusing. Four games (At Nebraska, Wisco, Penn State and at Michigan) have been released and the Buckeyes are an underdog in two games and a pick ‘em in another. They’ve only been a dog or a pick ‘em a total of 12 regular season games in the last decade, but, perhaps expecting their first wave of anti-OSU money in years, oddsmakers are reluctant tapping OSU as chalk. Lets take a quick look at the four games in play right now for Ohio State.
Ohio State at Nebraska, 10/8. Lines, Nebraska -12.5
So, Nebraska, you’re playing Ohio State for the first time as fellow Big 10 members and you’re double digit chalk against 
the league’s dominant super power? No pressure, guys. This line is historic. The Bucks have only been a double dog twice in the last 11 years: The BCS Title Game against Miami, which the Bucks won outright, and their trip to LA to play the Trojans in early 2008, which they lost 35-3. Of course, that was also the last time somebody other than Terelle Pryor started at QB for Ohio State. Of course, both those games were against nationally elite programs at the time. This line begs the question, when was the last time Ohio State was a double digit dog in a Big 10 game? You have to go all the way back to the 1990s for that. In the 1999 version of The Game, the Buckeyes were +11.5 in Ann Arbor against the Wolverines, and they were +12 earlier in the season in State College against Penn State. How long ago was that? Tom Brady and Lavar Arrington were among the stars for Michigan and Penn State back then. Ohio State also labored to a 6-5 record that season and didnt go to a bowl game. It was the second-to-last year of the Cooper regime. Despite the chaos that’s gone down in Columbus this offseason, I still have a hard time believing any conference team, even the newcomers from Lincoln, as double digits better than the Buckeyes. There defense is still going to be top shelf and the Huskers arent exactly a smooth running machine on offense. Sure, the Black Shirts might make life miserable for young Braxton Miller, or whomever else is behind center for Ohio State, but would you choose the Nebraska roster over Ohio State’s right now? Plus, the Bucks will be getting a huge surge with four suspended players coming back for that game. I dont know. Maybe it’s the sticker shock of seeing Ohio State such a huge dog in a Big 10 play, but I cant help but think this game will be closer than that number.
Wisconsin at Ohio State, 10/29. Lines, Wisco -3
I love Wisconsin-Ohio State games. Ever since the walls of the Big 2, Little 8 came crumbling down in the early 1980s, the Badgers have become an historic bugaboo for the Bucks. That includes a year ago, when the Badgers handed Ohio State 
their only loss of the season, an outcome the JCB predicted. Your welcome, winners! As for this year, the Badgers appear loaded and ready for another trip to Pasadena. They need to replace some studs on the offensive line, but luckily the local beefy lineman factory in Osh Kosh just rolls them off the assembly line. They also need to replace QB Scott Tolzein, who might just be the most underrated signal caller the league has seen in a generation. The solution there is to immediately plug in NC State transfer Russel Wilson, who had some lights out stretches during his career in Raleigh. The upshot is nobody has really slowed their roll on the Wisconsin expectations. They are favored to win the Leaders Division, favored in their showdown with Nebraska and, despite venturing into the Horseshoe, are favored by 3 against the Buckeyes. And, again we’re forced to dive into the archives to figure out when the last time the Bucks were a home dog, especially to a league foe. You dont need to go too far back actually. The Bucks were home dogs against USC in early 2009 when they lost by a field goal as +7 dogs against USC. In October, 2008, they were +1.5 at home in an eventual 13-6 loss to Penn State. By the time this game rolls around, I am positive the line will be different. We’ll know what a Luke Fickel teams looks like, the Bucks will have integrated those suspended stars back into the lineup and Braxton Miller will already have road showdowns against Miami and Nebraska under his belt. We’ll know better how the Wilson experiment in Madison will be playing out. I dont trust this number at all. Two years ago on this field, the Badgers dominated statistically, but turnovers and return touchdowns paved the way for an easier than it looked OSU win.
Penn State at Ohio State, 11/19. Line, OSU -3
Has there been a more home dominated series in the Big 10 than the OSU-PSU annual clashes? The home team is 14-4 straight up, 13-5 against the spread since they began playing annually when the Lions joined the league in 1993. The Nits have not enjoyed their trips to Columbus. They’ve won just once in eight starts and have averaged just 9 points per contest. But, hey, they’ve exceeded double digits the last three times they’ve played in Columbus, so dare we say this trend is on an upswing for JoePa’s boys? Well, I wont say that. They’ve still never scored more than 14 points on this field. That’s a point of pride for the Silver Bullets, and I would expect much the same this fall. I just dont trust this PSU offense. Also, the winner of this game has covered the spread in 17 of the 18 Big 10 games they’ve played against each other. Relevant? Who knows, but if you’re asking me to pick a winner in this one on the first day of August, I still lean OSU and would lay that field goal chalk without thinking twice.
Ohio State at Michigan, 11/26. Line, Pick ‘Em
So, if you have sticker shock seeing Ohio State as a double digit dog in conference play in one spot, and a home dog in conference play in another spot, then how in the world would you describe that tingling feeling in your degenerate gambling soul seeing their annual grudge match against Michigan as a mere pick ‘em? This line makes no sesne. On the early summer lines, nobody is betting on Michigan. Yet, they’re not even an underdog against Ohio State. Five other Big 10 teams and Notre Dame are currently chalk against Michigan, but Ohio State isnt. Northwestern is currently 3-point chalk against the Wolverines, but Ohio State isnt chalk at all against Michigan at the same book. None of this makes any sense to. Does Vegas know something? Please say they know something, pretty please with sugar on top? In theory, this rivalry should always be something close to a pick ‘em, but games arent played in theory. Frankly, at no other point in the rivalry history has the divide between the programs seemed so vast. The Bucks have won seven in row, the last four by double digits and they averaged 34.66 points per game in the three matches before those four. I dont even think Michigan has held the lead for as much as 15 minutes of total clock time during the last seven games in this series. The Wolverine’s defense was historically bad last year and arguably the worst unit in the country. They still cant kick the ball. And, while the offense has made leaps and bounds since the Great Roster Implosion of the 2008 offseason, they still turn the ball over like its their job. They havent been in real, fourth quarter position to win this game since 2005. Spare me your Shawn Crable personal foul in 2006 whines, Michigan fans. That game was never going our way. Maybe Brady Hoke channeling his inner Lloyd Carr and whispering stories of the program’s glory years is all it takes, but I doubt it. But at least he’s brought the hate back to the rivalry. I still dont think Michigan is talented enough to beat Ohio State. Hell, I am not even sure they’re talented enough to consistenly beat the Iowa’s and Michigan State’s of the league yet, let alone the Evil Empire down south. Here’s the deal, if you’re asking me would I put money on Michigan today to win that game come November, the answer is a decided NO. In fact, I’m tempted to make an early deposit in an off shore and get some serious money down on Ohio State. Would it be the earliest stab at a reverse jinx in gambling history? Maybeeeeeeeeee.
And, frankly, I like them in those other three games as well. I just dont buy into the talk of their demise.
By Blue in South Bend August 1, 2011 - 6:46 PM
Where would you put the line when they play @MSU?
By bcruss August 2, 2011 - 1:44 AM
Great writeup. I also wonder what that MSU line might look like. Last time OSU went up against MSU in 2008 they closed at 3 point chalks and proceeded to dismantle the Spartans to a tune of 45-7. In East Lansing. Will MSU be able to lay claim to "Elite Big Ten Team" status, or will OSU prove that troves of talent can overcome controversy. We'll have to wait until October 1st to find out.