NBA Finals: Where The Mavs May Make Me Wrong Again

So.

I predicted that the Trailblazers would knock the Mavericks out of the playoffs in the first round. To be fair to the Mavs, I thought they’d give the Blazers a run. Then, I said the Lakers would. I think I used the term “wouldn’t be close”. Precisely correct, but for the wrong team. Then, I picked the Thunder not once, but twice, after the teams split the first two games in Dallas.

So what’s Dallas done? Essentially, they’ve mustered the most consistent offensive attack in the playoffs – likely a result of being one of the precious few clubs sports a top-notch pass-first point guard – and it’s not just Jason Kidd. Both Jason Kidd and JJ Barea have averaged over a 3.5:1 A/TO ratio (marginally worse than Chris Paul’s league-leading 4:1 ration) – and since some early struggles against Portland, Barea has posted more than 5 assists per turnover (over the course of the year, a league-leading mark).

Meanwhile, the sport the post-season’s best scorer in Dirk Nowitzki, scoring six more points per game than in the regular season. Even that that undersells what he’s done – again, since some early struggles with Portland, Dirk has scored 29 ppg on 64.7% shooting. Dirk’s game 1 against Oklahoma was historically good, but the veteran has wrested at least 4 wins from the jaws of defeat single-handedly in these playoffs – stealing both Games 1 and 3 from Los Angeles and games 4 and 5 to nail the coffin shut on Oklahoma City’s season.

Dallas also got here through defense – stifling both Portland and Los Angeles’ three-point attack, and then causing the Thunder’s duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant fits, thanks to the strong play of both Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion on the defensive end (the two shot 39.2% from the floor in the series).

Miami, too, has gotten here on the strength of defense, after stifling the Bulls for four consecutive games to advance to the finals. The Heat, as fitting the #3 scoring defense in the league, were extremely effective at limiting the quality looks that Derrick Rose got at the basket, and, with Chicago largely struggling to shoot from the outside (or find reliable scoring outside of Luol Deng), the Heat were able to devote a large amount of their resources towards thwarting Rose.

Offensively, the Heat were largely pretty ugly, but against the top defense in the NBA, that’s somewhat to be expected. Dwayne Wade failed to play well for the entire series, short of the final few minutes of games 4 and 5 (40.5% on the series), and LeBron, for his part, only shot 44.7%. The Heat, really, were carried by their defense, and, a surprise after a season of ridicule, Chris Bosh – who shot 60% from the floor and chipped in 23.3 ppg.

A large portion of Bosh’s success, of course, came on the back of possibly the poorest defensive four in the NBA, Carlos Boozer, but Bosh still managed to hit while facing up Joakim Noah as well, despite significantly more tenacious defense. Moreover, the Big Three managed 23 foul shots per game between them, and knocked down and absurd 87%.

So what can we expect? First, Miami’s free-throw advantage isn’t going to go away, with whistle magnets like James and Wade (whose ability to attract a whistle Dallas fans won’t soon forget), Miami is going to get to the free-throw line a ton, and the three have been extremely effective at knocking down their chances when they get them. Dallas has already had tried their hand at guarding a dynamic duo, and while James and Wade have more bonafides than Durant and Westbrook, there shouldn’t be a tremendous difference in what Dallas is able to force the two into from the floor.

What OKC did not have, however, is a post-scorer, which the Miami do in Chris Bosh. Bosh, for his part, shouldn’t have as easy a time on offense – Dirk is going to pull defensive duty guarding Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem, while Bosh will face Tyson Chandler. Chandler, while a good defender, isn’t quite Joakim Noah – if Bosh shoots like he did against Chicago, there’s not going to much Chandler can do to stop him. What Dallas can do, however, is avoid the several Boozer-prompted failed rotations that gave Bosh some easy dunks. Stopping Bosh could possibly be the key for the Mavericks in the series.

On the other side, it’s somewhat cute to think that Miami has anyone that can slow Dirk down if he continues to play at this rate – Joel Anthony is a quality defender, but he’s probably just a poor-man’s Serge Ibaka – and we saw what Dirk did to Ibaka. Udonis Haslem is a rugged interior defender, but, like most big-men, won’t be comfortable guarding Dirk on the exterior. When crunch-time comes, I’d expect to see James covering Dirk, but that won’t be a regular match-up during the games. The Heat will need to stifle the penetration of Kidd and Barea, something they succeeded in doing to Derrick Rose, but the Bulls didn’t have the outside threats that Dallas does – if the Heat devote the manpower to stopping the point that they did against Chicago, Dirk, Jason Terry, and Peja Stojakovic will have some open shots.

While I think the Mavericks may be a solid matchup for the Heat, the Heat have the best player in the series, and likely 3 of the top 4. Looking at the team profiles, the Heat own every single one of the “four factors” – eFG%, free-throw rate, turnover margin, and offensive rebounding margin – over the Mavericks – they were a better scoring and defending team over the course of the season. I don’t see a way the Heat don’t win, despite my now hilarious track-record with the Mavericks. Is this just my desire to see the Heat lose resulting in gamesmanship? I’ll never tell.

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