One week and two wins after calling them perhaps the last hope for the Big 10 to earn seven bids into the NCAA Tournament, the Penn State Nittany Lions were one of the biggest movers up the chart as the latest updated mock brackets pour in. The Nittany Lions are not in the consensus Bracket Matrix tournament field just yet, but a surge of votes in their favor has them currently sitting right on the cut line, as the last team cut from the current day bracket projections. After just three votes among the mock bracketology crowd last week, Penn State parlayed their big win over Wisconsin into 19 mock votes as the Matrix currently stands this morning. While that’s still less than 40 percent support, its worth noting that 18 of 34 mocks who updated yesterday–exactly half–took a look at the Nittany Lions and decided that yes if the season ended today, this is an NCAA Tournament team.
Not bad for a team that had zero important non-conference wins, lost at home to Maine and began January by losing to Michigan. It’s been an amazing three weeks for the club as they’ve taken down Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin at home and lost at Ohio State and at Purdue by a combined four points. During the toughest stretch of their slate to date, they’re 4-2 straight up, 6-0 ATS. While I doubt the mocks are putting any stock in the moneymaking aspect of their January run, the Lions play has demanded that the crowd at least take notice. And with a soft and expanded bubble, the Lions results in the second toughest conference in the land are speaking a lot louder than any hole on their resume from out of conference play.
Where the Nittany Lions remain on the outside looking in they’re among the last four cut from the field per Joe Lunardi’s Bracket at ESPN, while another states the Lions still have work to do by placing them in their ‘decent resume, but not good enough’ group. Among those voting in favor of the Nittany Lions, they are across the board making them a double digit seed. They as low as a 13-seed in some mocks, but for the most part are either an 11- or 12-seed. Bracket Watch responded to the Super Headache that is trying to sort out a new field right now by adding 14 new teams to his field, half of which were new at-large invitees, including Penn State as an 11-seed. Three bracketologists have them as high as a 10-seed, notably Bracketology 101. Penn State was one of two new arrivals into his field, with Duquense being the other one. They highlight Penn State’s league scalps as evidence that Penn State is worthy of inclusion.
The Nittany Lions have eight losses and a tough road schedule left, but they now have three quality wins in conference, which is good enough – for the moment – to get a bid.
Some commentators at that blog questioned Penn State’s addition to the field, especially at the exclusion of a Maryland team that thumped the Nittany Lions by 30 points two months ago in the Big10/ACC Challenge. The resident bracketologist addressed those concerns head on in the comment section:
Maryland’s head-to-head win over Penn State is nice, but that doesn’t mean the Terps have a better overall resume than the Nittany Lions. That win is Maryland’s only Top 50 win to date, while Penn State has three Top 50 wins (a significant difference). Penn State’s ‘s RPI is also 24 points better than Maryland’s (46 vs. 70).
What’s caused this Penn State turnaround? After all, they won just 10 games a year ago and at 3-15 in Big 10 play finished in dead last place. Talor Battle is still on the team, the perpetual Nittany Lion Of The Week on the hardcourt, and still one of the Big 10′s best players. That helps. And while he continues to far outpace every other 
Nittany Lion in scoring, unlike a year ago, this team is much more than Battle. Battle was the only double digit scorer for the team a year ago, but this season two of his teammate, Jeff Brooks and David Jackson, chip in with at least 10 points per game apiece. Last season, Battle led the Lions in almost every major statistical category. This year, all he leads the team in is scoring. That doesnt sound like much, but PSU can function like a normal basketball team now that Sophomore Tim Frazier has emerged as a legit point guard and is around to dish out the ball, run the offense and relive some burden off of Battle. Or that instead of Battle leading the team in boards, they have three forwards in the starting lineup that eat more glass now than he does. One of those forwards is Brooks. Playing ten more minutes a game than a year ago, he has responded with a whale of a senior campaign. Averaging 13.9 points per game, Brooks is one of the most efficient offensive players in the land, especially since developing the ability to make a three point shot. The upshot of it not being The Talor Battle Do Everything For Us All The Time Show anymore is a more balanced, appropriate outfit thats ranked 47th in the latest KenPom Ratings, 50 spots ahead of where they finished a year ago according to the hoops tempo free guru. They’ve also been able to close out games. A year ago, Penn State was 3-10 in games decided by six points or less, including 1-10 in Big 10 play. This year, they’re 5-2, 3-2 in Big 10 play in those tight contests.
Despite their improved play, I wouldnt go out and bet your local book that Penn State will make the field. There is a long five weeks of the Big 10 regular season yet to play. They made headlines with some home upsets last month. Those waves need to continue and the Lions need to close strong to eventually earn an actual bid. Despite their improved showing in the KenPom Ratings, those same numbers still project a measly 15-14 overall record when its all said and done. That includes an 8-10 league mark and an expected 4-game losing streak to end the season against the slate of at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, vs Ohio State and at Minnesota. Based on their performance in recent weeks, I’d give the Nittany Lions a puncher’s chance at taking down the top-ranked Buckeyes in Happy Valley. But, if they cant sweep their other home contests–Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota–then they’re going to have to nab some of those road games in that final four game set. If the Lions win all their home games, but lose all their road games–the basic trajectory that’s elevated their status to this date–that breaks them even in Big 10 play, but with an overall 16-13 record, I dont think that gets them in the field, barring a major run in the Big 10- Tournament. What if they match their first half Big 10 record and go 5-4 again over the back half? They’ll have a winning league mark, but still a rather unappealing 17-12 overall record. I’m still not sure that will be good enough without a win or two in the conference sectional. As great a ride as its been for Penn State these last three weeks, if they want to wrap up an at large bid before the regular season is over, they need to do better in the second half of Big 10 play than they did in the first half and go 6-3 in their final nine games.
They’ll being that pursuit tonight against Illinois. They had some screwy travel plans as weather diverted their flight to Champagne to an Evansville landing, where they bussing the final 200 miles. We’ll see what kind of legs they have, as a result. It’s a bit of a concern since the Nittany Lions have zero depth and basically play their starting five from opening jump to final buzzer. If they can survive whatever early rust and bus legs they have from the travel, I think they can hang with the Illini on the road. While I am not ready to call this bunch a tournament team yet, I am more than willing to ride with Chitownblue’s prediction earlier and take the Nittany Lions to cover the +8 tonight. We’re still a month away from March, but every game the Lions play from here on in will carry March weight. We’ll see if Talor Battle and his new, productive friends can handle the microscope.
