As many throughout the mid-west hunker down under the impending SNOWPACALYPSE/SNOWMAGEDDON, the college basketball gods have, at least, provided us with some entertainment as we begin to tap the canned food supplies and begin boiling snow for when the pipes freeze. Tonight, the Big Ten Gods shower us with the two premier games of the week – almost as if they knew we’d have nothing else to do.
Purdue @ Wisconsin (-5), 7 PM
This game matches the second and third best teams in the conference for the first time this season. Last year the two teams split – Purdue winning by three on their home floor, and losing by seven at Wisconsin. Since those games, both teams have lost key contributors – Purdue’s Robbie Hummel to injury, and Wisconsin’s Travon Hughes to graduation.
Both teams excel at both ends of the floor – Wisconsin is the 3rd most efficient offense in the nation and the 35th best defense while Purdue sports the 15th most efficient offense and the 14th most efficient defense. Both teams depend largely on two stars – Wisconsin on Jordan Taylor (the Big Ten’s most efficient offensive player, according to Ken Pomeroy) and John Leuer, Purdue on JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. Wisconsin, thanks to the steady Taylor, is the least turnover-prone team in the nation, while Purdue is the sixth least turnover prone team. What I’m saying is that this is a really evenly-matched game.
Within those macro numbers, however, there is some noise. When Wisconsin has lost this year, they’ve been obliterated in free-throw differential – they’re generally miserable at getting to the line, and the teams that beat them have managed to coax 20+ FT’s. In their five losses, the Badgers have averaged being out-shot from the free throw line by 10 attempts, and allowed 22 FT’s a game. If you remove the loss to UNLV, where they actually outshot the Rebels by 9, that falls to a 15 shot deficit, allowing 23 a game. Look for the Boilermakers to pound the ball inside to JaJuan Johnson – who is taking close to seven shots a game. E’Twaun Moore has shown a willingness to drive to the basket when his shot isn’t falling (a trait he displayed against Ohio State), and he’ll need to do that here, even before he’s staring at a 1/7 shooting performance.
Purdue, for their part, goes, generally, as E’Twaun Moore goes. In their four losses, Moore has shot 25.8% from the floor – they’ve only survived shooting percentages like that twice – a two-point home win over PSU and Saturday’s romp over Minnesota. Wisconsin just allowed Moore’s statistical doppelganger – the equally streaky Talor Battle – to score twenty second-half points on them. They’ll need to fare better here.
If Moore is on, the game really comes down to which team can find a third scorer. The passive Keaton Nankivil is the most likely suspect, but outside of him, virtually no Badger is willing to shoot, much less score. Purdue doesn’t have as obvious a suspect as Nankivil, but Lewis Jackson is averaging 10 ppg in Big Ten Play, and the streaky Ryne Smith averages 11 ppg in Big 1o play (despite scoring under 10 in more than half his games), while DJ Byrd, John Hart, and Kelsey Barlow all chip in with around 5 ppg. Their scoring isn’t as consolidated as with Nankivil, but enough guys are involved.
All in all, this game appears to be a tossup – since it’s in the Kohl Center, the Badgers are certainly expected to pull it out. We’ll bank on E’Twaun Moore’s cold streak to extend (since conference play began, he’s shot 37.5% from the floor), and advise you you take the Badgers, and lay the points.
Penn State @ Illinois (-8), 9PM
Our opinions on Illinois are clear after yesterday’s post – they underachieve, their weak-willed, and shoddily coached. Weber hasn’t shown any aptitude for pulling them out of tailspins, and that’s exactly there the Illini find themselves, losers of 4 of their past 5.
Penn State, for their part, has put together a string of excellent basketball – winning 4 of their past 6, with the two losses coming by a combined 4 points at OSU and at Purdue, including a two-point win over these same Illini in Happy Valley. In that game, the Nittany Lions pounded the Illini on the boards (+12 in margin, 10 offensive rebounds), won the turnover battle (+5, with McCamey committing 5) and rode a hot Talor Battle (26 points on 50%+ shooting) to grind out a win in a game that saw the Illini out-shoot them by 70 points.
Battle is the star of the team – scoring over 20 points per game, but is a relative inefficient, volume scorer, shooting 42.5% from the floor. The Nittany Lions have truly been keyed by Jeff Brooks (14 ppg on 60%+ shooting, 3 offensive rebounds a game) and Andrew Jones (another three offensive rebounds a game). Thanks to this offensive rebounding and point-guard Andrew Frazier’s relatively sure-hands, the Nittany Lions average an additional ten attempts at the basket (either a shot, or foul shots) over their opponents. Battle can squander all the possessions he wants at that rate. The formula they need to follow is clear.
The Illini, for their part, do have one substantial advantage – they’re one of the best three-point shooting teams in the Big Ten, and Penn State is one of the worst at defending it (335th nationally). Their best player – Demetri McCamey, has been erased from their past five games – 26% shooting. If the Illini are going to win, simply, McCamey needs to pull his head out of his ass. Do you want to bet on that? I don’t.
The line is Illinois by eight, which seems like it’s propped up a ton by the laundry on the respective teams, and not by their results. Penn State has played better, and tougher teams to single-possession games on their own floors – I’m not sure they’ll win, but an eight point cushion seems pretty tasty.
