Yesterday brought another mixed bag in our bowl run this Bowl Chronicle campaign. We started horribly, dropping a pair of picks in the Military Bowl, beginning the day in a big hole. We got healthy on Illinois. Their win over Baylor gave us our biggest profit haul of the postseason on a single game. We heart Mikel Leshoure. But the day ended sourly as Oklahoma State whipped Arizona as we saw another underdog pick go down in flames. The result was a 3-3 record that earned just a small profit of 0.25 Units. Hard to complain when starting out in greater than a 1.5-unit deficit, but each of the last two days felt like we could make a major move up the profit charts, but lost our last pick yesterday and talked ourselves out of larger plays during the 2-0 Tuesday session. The real story of the bowl season, outside of the Big 10′s 2-0 start of course, is the continued dominance of the favorites. Going by the closing bell, chalk is now 11-3. We’re almost half way through bowl season. We’re still waiting for the underdogs to go on a run. We’re still up 0.80 Units, but considering we’re 3-7 selecting underdogs, the fact we’re in the black at all is a minor gambling miracle. Fourteen bowls games are in the books. The next fourteen games are squeezed into the next three days. I predict joy if the puppies make a stand and start biting back. I predict pain if the chalk continues to dominate. Four games today, the busiest so far of the bowl season. We’ll have a post on the rest of the action later today, but here’s our card for day’s opening game, prop picks included.
Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs Southern Methodist, noon, ESPN. Lines, SMU -8, O/U 52
Bowl games have a tendency to be clunky starters in some part to the long layoff between games. Here’s hoping that today’s bowl lid lifter in Dallas evolves into a classic because of the relatively short layoffs the teams have had since their last contest. Army played less than three weeks ago. Southern Methodist played 25 days ago. Both teams play specific styles of contrasting football and if each is sharp coming out of the game with their execution, then we’re going to see some fun football in the early going in this otherwise sleepy looking nooner. The old school option of Army in one corner. The run and shoot attack of SMU in the other. If both offenses are humming, then we should see a little bit of everything as each attack lands its blows.
It’s also a twisted matchup in that it involves two programs who arguably havent been the same since being embroiled in a major scandal that shook the college football world at that time. Army helped carry college football its first 50 years or so. Read as much as you can about the Cadets during that time as its some fascinating history. One of the highlights is the the Red Blaik Era where the team won more than 78 percent of its games and two national championships over 17 seasons. However the Cadets became embroiled in an academic cheating scandal in 1951 that nearly dismantled the program. Blaik eventually restored the program to its winning wats, but Army really downgraded football almost the second he left campus after the 1958 season. The team stayed competive for awhile, but the three coaches following Blaik each went only a handful of games above .500. And since 1974 there arent too many programs on the FBS level that have a worse record than Army. Other than three bowl appearance in five years in the 1980s under Jim Young and a 1996 Independence Bowl Bid, I’ve never really seen a winning Army football team in my lifetime. This was an elite program during an Golden Era of collegiate football. Seeing Army in the postseason appeals to my historic nature, and its just one of many reasons to be stoked for the Cadets playing in their first bowl game in 14 years. As for SMU, they got the Death Penalty a quarter century ago after payola scandals made even more infamous by the stellar 30 for 30 ESPN documentary that aired earlier this month. They had not turned out a winning record in the 20 years they’ve been back on the college grid until last season’s breakthrough bowl appearance. Repeating that performance is a benchmark in its own right as June Jones continues to grow another mid-major in his own run and shoot image.
For a handicapping side, it gives us an exercise in backing underdogs that you know will outrush the favorite. This didnt go well a week ago with Navy last week, but I dont think the Ponies are as good as the San Diego State outfit that handled the Mids. I dont want to sell 
SMU’s rushing attack too short because when they do run the ball, they do so effectively enough where tailback Zach Line is the CUSA’s leading rusher. But, its such an unbalanced part of their attack, that they are still just the 79th rushing attack in the nation. In 9 of their 13 games, they failed to crack the 150 yard mark as a team. Army brings the 1oth ranked rushing offense thats churned out 250 yards rushing yards or more in nine games and only once failed to crack the double century mark. When the dust on the box score settles, I would be surprised if Army didnt have more rushing yards. Thats important. One of the first things I ever read on football capping pointed out that dogs that outrush the favorite cover about two-thirds of the time and those that doubled up in that stat column cashed over 80 percent of the time. It had records and everything. Of course, the catch is how can you really predict who will outrush who. Its tough enough figuring out who is going to win a game and now you want to try and pick who is going to win a stat? I know, its not even worth trying. But I have always used it as a basic jumping off point when looking for games to play. I really like teams that can run the football as underdogs. Think about it. Those teams, by running the football, do a great job of exerting their control of the game and often keep the favorites offense off the field for long stretches. Give them a mythical scoreboard head start? It’s why I liked everything about Illinois yesterday over Baylor. But its also why I liked Navy over San Diego State. What can I say? We’re not perfect over here.
As for this matchup, I cant help but feel like we’ve seen this contest before. Havent we seen the option-based Air Force take apart the run and shoot Conference USA squad Houston in twice the last three years, with the loss being by just six points. Didnt we see the Naval option batter and bruise this very same SMU team two months ago. Army isnt quite as good as their service brethern yet, but there’s no way they’re overmatched here. I’ll take a flier on the Cadets rolling to the tune of at least 250 yards on the ground, disrupting the rythmn of Kyle Padron and the Pony offense in the process. Of course, thats what I thought about Nevade over SMU a year ago. Maybe you shouldnt have spent so much time reading this post?
The Pick: Army +8, x 1 Unit……in practice, the only games I take on basic underdog that will outrush the favorite principle involve games with Navy, Air Force and Georgia Tech. Now that Army is good enough to be in a bowl game, I’ll have zero problem adding them them to the list of automatic circles. Always take the Service Academy when catching points could become the new JCB slogan. We’ll see about that next season. But for today, the least I could do is support the boys and back them at the window.
PROP PICKS
We’re going to continue riding the props. We’re still in the black on the postseason despite the Great Underdog Crash Of Christmas 2010 because we’ve netted 2.45 units on prop plays. I think we’ve got a couple here
Jared Hassin, Over 67.5 rushing yards, x 1/2 Unit..……he’s only exceeded this total seven times out of 12 games this year, but he’s been lost in the shuffle of blowout wins and losses at times. In five of the games he failed to go over this total he’s had 5, 6 and 8 carries. In all other games, he’s averages 16 totes a game for 86 yards. He’ll be a big part of the game plan today, and I have a hunch he’s be closer to the century mark than than 67.5 benchmark oddsmakers have set for him.
Aldrick Robinson, Over 87.5 Receiving Yards, x 1/2 Unit…….I dont think the Cadets can check him. The Army option offense might be able to control clock and limit possessions, but when the Ponies do have the ball, look for them to milk their advantage. Army plays good team passing defense, but I think Robinson gets loose for at least three big plays downfield. Toss in a couple nickel and dime catches and he’ll go over this total. He’s had eight 100-yard games in SMU’s last 14 contests, including a 176 yard effort in the bowl game a year ago. With the extra time to prepare, I expect Jones to come up a handful of creative looks to get his best playmaker the ball, even against a solid pass defense.
Three plays, with two props. A single unit on the side and half units on the props. Have we made this game interesting enough yet?
