What a killer set of bowl games tonight with Illinois matching with Baylor and Arizona taking on Oklahoma State. Lots of offense. Lots of big time playmakers. Lots of reasons to keep your eyes glued to the games. We have the 4rth, 14th and 27th ranked total offenses playing in these games. Want explosive rushing attacks? We have the 11th, 27th and 30th ranked rushing teams in the land, powered in part by the 7th and 8th leading individual rushers in the nation. Need some passing fireworks? These games bring us the 3rd, 13th and 21st ranked teams in passing yards. The aerial attacks are engineered by the 3rd, 17th and 25th ranked passers in the land with the 7th and 9th ranked receivers in yards gained among the primary targets. If offense and prolific stats are your bag, then this bowl doubleheader is for you.
Oddmakers expect points to come by the bushel in these games. The Baylor/Illinois Over/Under is 64, while the nightcap in the Alamo Bowl between the Pokes and Cats is set at 67. No other games the rest of the bowl season has a point total set at more than 60 points until the National Championship Game, which sits at a whopping 74 right now. When two Big 12 teams known for high octane offenses and little to no defense take the field, we follow suit here at the JCB and devote an entire Pick-4 contest to the proceedings. It was interesting taking a look at our props and how they conformed, if at all, to the actual player props listed by oddsmakers. We doled out a pair of rushing yards props, one for Illinois Mikel Leshoure and another for Okie State’s Kendall Hunter. The Pick-4 prop for Leshoure is 135.5, but oddsmakers are not as strict, handing out a lesser hurdle for LeShoure to clear and bettors to ponder at 118.5 yards. As for Hunter, it’s the same story. Our contest provides a higher number with O/U 125.5, while bookies have set the rushing total at 110.5 yards. In the other props for the Pick-4, we throw Robert Griffin O/U 300.5 total yards in offense, but the Book I use only offers total completions O/U 22.5 and total TD passes O/U 2.5. Obviously, the Criner vs Blackmon prop is unique to the Pick-4, but if you want to get some real life action on either stud wideout, sportsbook.com offers Criner O/U 100.5 receiving yards and Blackmon O/U 9.5 catches.
Speaking of Pick-4, my selections for this round: Over, Under, Criner, Over
Texas Bowl, 6:00, ESPN. Illinois vs Baylor. Lines, Baylor -1, O/U 64
I am looking forward to this game. I enjoy bowl games between programs who arent used to the postseason. Baylor has not been bowling since 1994, while this is just the Illini’s fourth bowl bid in the last 16 years. Neither program takes making these games for granted. And while the cynical, bowl-doubting public may roll their eyes at this match-up, the Texas Bowl might as well be the Rose Bowl for these two programs. Throw in the fact we have a pair of offenses that can deliver haymakers all day against these defenses and it’s going to be an exciting contest.
Quick gambling subplot to follow during this game. I was perusing the various online books last night comparing what props they were offering for the next round of bowl games, and I stumbled upon an interesting betting menu at BoDog. They had props where you could bet conferences head-to-head on the amount of bowl wins the leagues will accumulate. They listed a Big 10 match with the Big 12, where the Big 12 was favored by -4.5 wins over the Big 10. I had no interest in funding a new account, so I wasnt going to play any of those props. But I wish I had seen them earlier as it would have been a fun post to put together and perhaps some of the readers out there would have liked to play a conference prop or two. I’ll be a bit more on top of it next year, I promise. Anyway, our local league got a big boost in that race with Iowa topping Missouri in a direct head-to-head match between the leagues last night. How is this relevant to this Illinois/Baylor game, outside of another straight-up match between the conferences? That prop bet could be won and lost on this outcome. If the Illini win, that’s a 2-0 lead, that would technically be 6.5-0 in favor of the Big 10. The Big 12 only has six more games to play after this contest. If Baylor drops the game today against Illinois, the Big 12 cant catch up, even if they win out as a league and the Big 10 losses out. Big 10 boosters on this can cash in before the end of the day. Sending a Ron Zook coached team out to clinch your bet is like sending Armando Benitez to get the final three outs with the pennant on the line, but at least you have a chance to cash that prop in with an Illini win.
Jokes at Ron Zook aside, I do like Illinois’ chances in this game. In many ways, this Baylor team they are playing tonight is the Big 12 equivalent of Michigan. Seive-like pass defense, but with average enough numbers against the run that you can talk yourself into them being able to stop Mikel LeShoure. Stop that nonsense. The Illini had their way for the most part with the Michigan defense and it will be more of the same tonight. LeShoure will have a huge game tonight. He’s had eight 100-yard games this year, including some guady performances that makes just hitting the century mark look like a yawner. Of course Baylor, like Michigan, has a dynamic offense highlighted by a playmaking QB thats almost unstoppable when he’s playing his A-game. Tranlastion: This could easily be another 67-65 loss for the Illini.
In the end, I think Illinois wins this game because they have the better defense. If you’re asking me who is going to win this coin flip, I’ll take the team whose defense I trust to get a couple ciritcal stops. Baylor hasnt stopped anybody with a pulse. With Corey Liguet and Martez Wilson I think Illinois can contain Griffin and company on enough possessions to stay ahead in what is going to be a major shootout. Illinois’ defensive performance against the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State and Missouri has me feeling they can get this done. I dont see a single halfway decent defensive performance against a team with a pulse on the Baylor ledger. The Illini havent really been totally outclassed by anyone this season. With a little better luck, they might have 8-9 wins. Baylor, again very similar to Michigan, has really been rocked in a lot of their losses and doesnt really have a resume victory to their name. They beat just one bowl team–Kansas State by a 47-42 score–but lost to all the other bowl teams on their slate by an average of 22 points. The Illini might not be as explosive as some of those Big 12 offenses Baylor faced. But, they’re better defensively than most of those teams, have a dominant factor back in LeShoure and QB Nathan Sheelhase might not be spectacular, but he’s a steady dual threat. He’s tossed just one pick since the middle of October, has tosed 13 touchdowns in the last six games and has rushed for 100 yards in three of the Illini’s last 5 games with a 97-yard effort also tossed in there.
The Pick: Illinois +1…….Robert Griffin will put on a show for sure. But, Illinois will have just enough defense and will control the game with a dominant, multi-faceted rushing attack. Illinois can stop a little of Baylor rushing offense. The Bears wont have a chance to do the same. Leshoure will threaten 200 yards and score three touchdowns. Dont be surprised to see the Illini have a pair of 100-yard rushers with either Scheelhase or Jason Ford providing the extra running game pop after LeShoure. Unlike the Michigan game, Illinois wins this shootout.
PROP PLAYS
LeShoure Over 118.5 rushing yards, -120
Will LeShoure score a first half TD? YES, -140
LeShoure is one of my favorite backs in the nation, let alone the Big 10. I like this Leshoure matchup against the Baylor D so much, that we’re stepping on the value of these prop plays and risking a unit on each of these hitting. The 118.5-yard mark would be below his average per game on the season. I just dont think Baylor has the defense to stop him and this cat ended the season on a major role. That includes finding paydirt. He’s scored touchdowns in six straight games, including four contests with multiple scores. He’s sure to find the endzone at least once tonight, including an early score.
Alamo Bowl, 9:15, ESPN: Oklahoma State vs Arizona. Lines, Okie State -5, O/U 67
I wont spend too much time on this game as we’re getting close to the Illini kickoff and I want to get this posted somewhat in advance of that.
This game begins for me with something everyone should do during bowl season: Back a Pac-10 team when catching points. Did you know that the Pac-10 is 15-5 ATS when catching points in the postseason? Now you know. That’s the knowledge you come to the JCB for. Despite Okie State’s juggernaught offense. And despite Arizona’s ‘down’ season compared to a year ago, I’ll take the Cats +5 (-125) in this one without hesistation and take my chances. In a way, its a like the game above. I’m taking the team that offers a shred of defense in whats likely to be a shootout. Except Arizona is a bit more explosive on offense, has a better QB, better D and is catching more points than the underdog Illini in the above game. We saw Iowa from the Big 10 have a lot of success against a good Big 12 defense last night. How will a team with a better team than the Hawks perform against a much worse defense from that same Big 12? I think very well, thank you very much. Everything Okie State can do on offense, the Cats can do. Foles and Criner can easily outshine Weeden and Blackman.
In summary, here is tonight’s card:
Illinois +1
Arizona +5
Mikel Leshoure Over 118.5 yards
Will Leshoure scored a TD
All for 1 unit
