Bowl season officially hits its stride today with a three game slate. Including something in the middle of the day to track during your work day. We hit that game with this post. We’ll touch on the two later games between Illinois/Baylor and Oklahoma State/Arizona a little bit later.
Military Bowl: East Carolina vs Maryland, 2:30, ESPN. Lines, Maryland -8, O/U 67.5
For the casual football fan, the type who just follows his team and their conference, I’ll introduce this game by telling you this is 
where Mike Leach’s Texas Tech offense went. Exiled from Lubbock a year ago, the top two assistants from Mike Leach’s staff landed in Greenville with Ruffin McNeill taking over as head coach and Linoln Riley serving as offensive coordinator. When watching the Pirates, its pretty obvious. They passed for more than 300 yards eight times. After averaging 16 touchdown passes a season the previous four years, the Pirates scored 37 times through the air. Dominque Davis is the triggerman. He’s tied for first in the country in touchdown passes, third in completions and seventh in total yards through the air. He has two targets that are good bets to be drafted at some point during the next two Aprils in Lance Lewis and Dwayne Harris. Each caught double digit touchdowns. Harris is seventh in the nation in catches, Lewis is 17th and both were in the top-30 nationally in yards with Harris going over the 1,000 yard mark and Lewis coming up 21 yards shy. Leach has been a missing presence this year, but his offense has lived on all season in Greensville putting up more than 40 points four times with another four games tallying at least 35 points. The problem with ECU is that the team looked a lot like Leach’s teams his first year’s in Lubbock. Next to no defense. The numbers are ugly. Giving up 43.4 points per game it all adds up to the dead last in total defense. Ladies and gents, here’s your worse defense than Michigan’s right here. At least statistically.
On the other side, the key motivational question here is obvious. How will the Terps respond to the firing of their head coach and his lame duck status for one final game. I dont know if I like their chances to circle the wagons like champs when I hear the Friedgen calling his last days as the head coach a slow death. I’m leery of this being an inspired bunch in the mold of the 1987 Ohio State Buckeyes in the wake of Earle Bruce’s sudden firing. The Terps are a solid team and made a surprise run in the ACC Atlantic. They 
survived in the race through the second to last week and played killer spoiler in the finale by knocking NC State out of first place. Maryland does not do anything great, but they’ve got enough parts to win games with in the ACC. Scotty OBrien has been just steady enough at QB to keep the offense going. Davin Magget and Da’rel Scott have been an effective and, at times, explosive platoon at tailback. Torrey Smith could end up as the game’s leading receiver after having surpassed the 1,000 yard mark in his junior season. They’re just an average defensive team statistically, but they can take games over on that side of the ball at various times thanks to their ability to get sacks, tackles for loss and takeaways. Fourteen Terps have sacks with half having at least two. LB Alex Wujciak is the defensive leader, in on seemingly every play. Their big play sack artist is Joe Vellano with 5 sacks and 10 TFLs. Kenny Tate and Antwine Perez are the starting safeties, they’re second and fifth on the team in tackles, with six picks and 14 pass breakups combined.
Expect a shootout. Thats pretty much how East Carolina games go. Seven times the loser in the Pirates contest put up at least 35 points. The scored 38.1 points per game, good for eighth nationally, but allow 43.4, 118th nationally. The Terps average 30.7 points per game and half their games this season have exceeded 60 total points. Despite the high over/under total of 67.5, there isnt a single technical trend that points to anything but these teams taking this game Over the total. I’ve never been good at college football totals, but this would be a hard game to sit and watch with an Under ticket in your pocket. So that’s some free advice.
As for a formal pick, I am taking the points with the Pirates. Both teams beat North Carolina State. Maryland beat Navy. ECU was horse whipped by the Midshipmen, giving up 76 points in the process. That comparison alone probably drives a lot folks directly to the chalk. Not me. I think ECU comes out firing, catches a sleepy Terp team early on. The Terps will wake up and hit back, but this will be a back and forth game with not much time spent with either team having more than a touchdown edge. I think ECU’s passing offense makes this a game. I’m not sure the Terps can shut this down. Sure, they can have some success in the stop department every now and then. They’re tied for 11th in the nation in interceptions and 15th in is passes defended. They can force a run on incomplete passes. But Davis and the Pirates are comfortable playing against that type of defense. Considering the Terps allowed just a shade under 300 yards per game against the seven FBS schools on their slate that was 71st or better in passing yards, its safe to say Davis is going to put up big numbers. This is a pretty shaky D when going up against a legit offense. I think that shows today. Davis accounted for 45 total touchdowns on the air and ground. Hell find paydirt all day against the Terps. The Terps might win, but Davis and company will do enough to keep this game closer than the experts think.
The Pick: ECU + 8……ECU has always been a quality play as an underdog with a 41-30-2 ATS mark catching points since 2000. That mark is better away from home with a 27-18-1 mark on the road, 3-1 in bowl games. And, dont forget what we mentioned more than a week ago at the start of the bowl run. The 6-6 teams that folks lament are in a bowl are solid investments. They’re 21-11 ATS, including 3-2 this year. When you toss out the 1-1 record compiled in the New Mexico Bowl when a pair of .500 teams played with BYU and UTEP, the 6-6 trend is 2-1 this season. I’ll wager a unit it ends bowl season with a winning record. Besides, I just dont trust this Terps team early in this game. I think ECU’s opening punches will be enough in the long run to get us the cover here.
BONUS PROP PICK!
Hey, we’re 2-0 on these this bowl season. And when we say we’re killing time at work, we mean serious business
Davis Over 3.5 total touchdown passes/interceptions……This could fall into the too good to be true category, but its too sweet looking to pass up. Davis has tossed 36 touchdowns this year. That’s three a game. He’s tossed three or more scores in more than half of ECU’s games this year. He’s also tossed his fair share of picks, 14 on the season and only had four clean sheets in that department on the season. The Terps are 11th in the nation in interceptions and has picked off at least one pass in 10 of 12 games this year. They can get interceptions for every player in their secondary. The numbers all add up. Davis could hit this total in a number of different ways. I’d be shocked if this didnt end up with at least four.
Summing up the picks for the afternoon romp that is the 2010 Military Bowl: ECU +8, 1 Unit, Davis Over 3.5 TD Passes/Ints, 1/2 Unit.
2010 Bowl Chronicles:
Overall record: 7-5, +0.55 Units
One Unit Plays: 4-4, -0.40 Units
Half Unit Plays: 3-1, +0.95 Units
Double Unit Plays: 0-0
