I didnt do a look ahead post for this week’s NFL schedule. Even degenerate bloggers take holidays. That does not mean I’m taking a bye week, however. Heck, no. There are a lot of great games today, lot of playoff stakes in the middle of the table and the JCB does not sit out football days like this.
My first bold prediction of the day: The Detroit Lions will make the playoffs next year. Hell, they might make the Super Bowl. How much rum have I emptied out into my glasses of egg nog, you ask? Well, quite a bit, thanks you very much. But thats not driving that statement. Really, its not. I say the Lions will be in the postseason next year, because this year they already are the best team in the NFL. But, not the best team in the way you think.
There is no better moneymaker in the NFL right now than the Detroit Lions. For years, the Lions were good moneymakers for the gambling crowd, but that was because they were such a good team to bet against? This year, the Honolulu Blue are paying out for their backers. At 10-4 against the spread, the Lions are tied with the Falcons for the best record in the NFL. So the Lions are making money despite their last place status, more so than any other team. Had they not been dealing with an assortment of injuries and bad luck (for example, both losses against the Bears), they could be in playoff contention right now. Instead, they’ve lost an astonishing seven times by a touchdown or less. The good news is they’ve covered the spread in most of those games.
To be sure, we see last place teams excell against the number every year. It does not automatically translate into straight up wins and a bounce back campaign the following year. However, I’m sticking to my Detroit as a 2011 playoff entrant because I see a strong parallel to the Carolina Panther program from 2001-2003 that ended with a surprise Super Bowl berth for Carolina.
The Panthers only won a single game in 2001, a season puncuated by a ridiculous 15-game losing streak. They rebounded to win 7 games in 2002, but most importantly were a cash cow for the betting crowd with an 11-5 ATS record. In 2003, they shocked the world by dominating the NFC South, winning the division and upsetting the Eagles in the NFC Title Game to advance to the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl. The Lions? Well, they won 2 games a year ago, a campaign marked by not one, but two 6-game losing streaks. They might end up winning as many as six games this year, but already have reached the double digit mark in point spread covers. If they close strong, they’ll end up with the NFL’s best record in that regard, like the 2002 Panthers. If the Lions follow the Panthers three-year trajectory, then they sky in the limit next season in Detroit.
The comparison goes beyond just a three-year snapshot of seasons. The Panthers had a game changing wide receiver in Steve Smith. The Lions? Say hello to Megatron Calvin Johnson. The Panthers had a dominant defensive line, anchored by Julius Peppers, that mauled teams. The Lions have one of the best defensive lines in the league, even with Kyle Vanden Bosch out with an injury. Ndomakung Suh will more than play the Peppers role for the Lions. The Panthers were tough to throw on during that era. The Lions are on the verge of being in the top half in the NFL in passing defense and improving every week. Carolina had an exciting rushing attack. The Lions have Javid Best. The Panthers had a hot QB in Jake Delhomme that was a borderline MVP candidate. Alright, thats where this comparison might fall apart. However, the Lions are already on the verge of being in the top-10 in passing yards and they’ve barely had the services of their expected starting QB this year. Personally I feel had Matt Stafford been able to take every snap this year, the Lions would already be no worse than fringe playoff contenders this season. His health will be vital to the Lions taking the third step in this Carolina comparison.
Maybe I’m making too bold of a prediction. Maybe we’ll all look back and laugh at this. The Lions look like they can make a leap, but things can change fast in both directions in this league. I will say this. Let’s stick with the here and now. We can mock or celebrate my 2011 playoff team prediction next Christmas season. These Lions are feisty. And maybe the best 4-10 team in NFL history. What does mean? Book Detroit +4 over Miami. In fact, book it twice over. We wont even need the points when its all said and done. As for the rest of the day, here’s what’s on the card.
Detroit +4 over Miami, x 2
Green Bay -2.5 (-125) over Giants, x 1
7-point teaser: Jets +10 over Bears/San Fran +9.5 over Rams, x 1
I am sure I will have a couple picks during the 4:15 window. I’ll send those out via the JCB Twitter.
(2010 NFL record: 34-24-2, +7.8 Units)
