The best way to breakdown the bowls are to look at the postseason in separate chronological phases. The first stretch involves all the games that take place prior to Christmas Day. That’s more than a half dozen games to chew on while the postseason gains momentum. But, you dont just want my opinion on all those games. So, to break down the early bowl action, I’ve brought in JCB bloggers SteveY, of Three To Watch fame, and Hathachips, the Guru of the Parlay to discuss the early set of games. We also convinced special guest MGoTim from MgoBlog to join the party. We’ll do 2-3 more of these roundtables as we go forward in bowl season. For now, lets see what they have to say about these first games. Just to remind folks, here are the games being discussed: BYU -12 vs UTEP, NIU -1 vs Fresno, Troy -1 vs Ohio, Rutgers -1 vs So Miss, SDSU -5 vs Navy, Boise -17 vs Utah, Hawaii -12 vs Tulsa and Toledo -1 vs FIU. Yes, the Toledo game is the day after Christmas, but we do focus one question on the MAC and it jsut seemed natural then to include that game into the following discussion.
Jamie Mac: What game among this group are you most looking forward to watching or what do you see as the most intriguing storyline and why? Any specific players you’re jazzed about checking out as well?
SteveY: Navy and San Diego State is the best game of the early bunch in my epinion. Boise State and Utah seems fun, but Utah really shat the bed a couple times, making me less interested. Possible scoring-fest coming with NIU and 
Fresno as well and those are always fun to watch. But back to Navy and SDSU. It’s a shame these two match up against one another because I’d like to see a lot of the major conference teams take on these guys. Brady Hoke conducted a hell of a turnaround with the Aztecs and Ken Niumatalolo has continued Navy’s success after Paul Johnson’s departure. Both coaches have been rumored in connection with bigger job openings this winter. The game is on SDSU’s home field which is nice for the Aztecs, but there is also a huge naval base nearby so plenty of Navy supporters will be in attendance. SDSU did a pretty good job stopping the run this year, but the only running attack nearly as successful as Navy’s torched the Aztecs for 300+ yards when SDSU faced Air Force. I don’t think either defense has much success, making for a great game. Staying in the Navy game, I’m looking forward to watching Ricky Dobbs’ last game. A senior QB that has been electric running that triple option, but he’s had some turnover problems this year. He’ll make or break that game. On Christmas Eve, be sure to watch Greg Salas, a wide receiver for Hawaii who leads the nation in receiving yards. Salas is going up against Tulsa, who has the second worst pass defense in the country. Finally, I’m going to be watching NIU’s running back Chad Spann, the MAC player of the year. Spann hasn’t broken the 100 yard mark since October, but was dominant before the dry spell.
Fresno as well and those are always fun to watch. But back to Navy and SDSU. It’s a shame these two match up against one another because I’d like to see a lot of the major conference teams take on these guys. Brady Hoke conducted a hell of a turnaround with the Aztecs and Ken Niumatalolo has continued Navy’s success after Paul Johnson’s departure. Both coaches have been rumored in connection with bigger job openings this winter. The game is on SDSU’s home field which is nice for the Aztecs, but there is also a huge naval base nearby so plenty of Navy supporters will be in attendance. SDSU did a pretty good job stopping the run this year, but the only running attack nearly as successful as Navy’s torched the Aztecs for 300+ yards when SDSU faced Air Force. I don’t think either defense has much success, making for a great game. Staying in the Navy game, I’m looking forward to watching Ricky Dobbs’ last game. A senior QB that has been electric running that triple option, but he’s had some turnover problems this year. He’ll make or break that game. On Christmas Eve, be sure to watch Greg Salas, a wide receiver for Hawaii who leads the nation in receiving yards. Salas is going up against Tulsa, who has the second worst pass defense in the country. Finally, I’m going to be watching NIU’s running back Chad Spann, the MAC player of the year. Spann hasn’t broken the 100 yard mark since October, but was dominant before the dry spell.MGoTim: Though the answer seems obvious (yes), I think it’ll be interesting to see whether a couple of those larger point spreads get covered, particularly the Boise and Hawaii lines. When it seems like such an obvious bet, that’s what makes the underdog covers exciting, right? Big lines may make it seem like you’ll see a bunch of overmatched teams and blowout games, but a lot of time there are deceptively interesting games to be played.
Hathachips: I like two games for this question. Both involve teams that had their souls CRUSHED near the end of the regular season, in games where they were heavy favorites. I am of course talking about Boise State and Northern Illinois. In the Boise game, I’m convinced that Boise wins this one, but Utah will cover. The Utes are getting 17 and only 400 miles from home. They are 10-2 with losses to TCU (understandable) and Notre Dame (‘BARRASSING). Boise’s crazed fans aren’t that much further away (625 miles), but after kicker Kyle Brotzman missed 2 chip shots, embarrassing the whole school, costing them $12 million and a BCS bid, I’m sure most of their fans want to FIRE CHRIS PETERSEN and paint the field orange for a change rather then drive through the Rocky Mountains to Vegas for a vacation and a bowl game. Or maybe not. BOISE 38 – Utah 27 . In the Northern game, the Huskies were undefeated in the MAC and lost the championship game at Ford Field to a Miami of Ohio team that went 1-11 the year prior. Talk about ‘BARRASSING! NIU’s average margin of victory for their ten wins was 27.2 ppg. They can light up the score board, but so can Fresno State and the fighting handle bar mustaches. Fresno is putting up 30 ppg and have a decent defensive team. They held off Illinois for a 25-23 win in the last game of the season and also stayed close with #21 Nevada in a 34-35 loss. And to come full circle, this game is being played at the home of the Boise State Broncos; a blue field that sees a lot of points. I like NIU in this one because they have a CHIP on their shoulder. OVER is 59, I’d take that as well. NIU 38 Fresno 35
Jamie Mac: I agree with SteveY. The SDSU/Navy game intrigues me the most. But, I love betting Navy as a road underdog. They ought to be a holy lock to outrush the Aztecs and teams, especially underdogs, that outrush their opponent in a bowl game are lethal against the spread. On to the the next question.
Everyone knows how much I dig trends and betting systems. A basic one for bowl season is bet on the favorites in Pre-Xmas Bowls, take the Underdogs after Xmas, but get back on the chalk when the calendar flips to January. Now, I dont adhere to this 100 percent. It’s an old adage and created well before the bowl schedule has been co-opted, extended and expanded. There are twice as many pre-Xmas and January bowl games than there used to be, so the flooded schedule has kind of made the above theory more guidance than something you should strictly follow. However, take a look at those games, do you think chalk will rule the Pre-Xmas bowls? Should we trend towards the chalk the first week of bowl season? Please advice!
SteveY: It’s definitely hard to stick to the trend when I feel like this early period used to be mediocre teams from major conferences beating up on the little guys. This year’s slate looks considerably different with one “power” conference team, quotes necessary because lol Big East. I’m actually wary of the chalk in some of these cases. I think the lines on the Boise and Hawaii games are too big and most of the other games are virtual toss-ups. I’d shelf the trend picks.
MGoTim: A lot of the chalk looks pretty good, to the point of some seeming like sure things (Louisville -1 over Southern Miss with Charlie Strong given a month to prepare? Yes please). The only line that truly scares me away from taking chalk is Northern Illinois over Fresno in a virtual pick ‘em. The Huskies have to react to losing their head coach, and the Bulldogs have always seemed to play their best ball on the biggest stages – while having a mediocre record in the WAC. I wouldn’t touch that game.
Hathachips: For realz, any jame where the underdog is getting more than a TD, I get a little bit intrigued. Boise, Hawaii and BYU are the only 3 in this line up. Boise always has a big line, but they usually cover, so it’s expected. Hawaii plays in Hawaii, so no one really knows what they are about. BYU is a 6-6 team going up against another 6-6 team and giving 12? It’s weird. I think the only big favorite out of these three to cover will be Hawaii. They only have to travel to the HAWAII BOWL. Really? A home game for your bowl game, not bad. Other than that, I see the rest of the favorites covering except Troy. Favorites vs. Dogs record: 5-3.
Jamie Mac: The MAC broke a long bowl game losing streak a year ago when Central finally won a game to honor the conference. The MAC is featured three times in these early bowl games. How do think they do? Basically, take this question to rap about the chances of the three MAC teams: NIU, OU and Toledo
SteveY: Full disclosure: I did not watch a lot of MAC games this year because I’m a fan of the CHIPS and they were not fun to watch. Howeva, I like the fact that the MAC is starting to play some level competition in bowl games, now that the powers that be figured out they see enough of the Big Ten in September. Neat that all of the MAC games above are one point spreads, makes them real easy to call. Right? Anyway, this will sound obvious given the close betting lines but I think these will all be exciting games to watch in the fourth quarter. All three MAC squads have a chance to win, so I don’t think we’ll be looking at the start of another streak. It’s hard to tell how a team will react to the loss of its coach and NIU gets a hot opponent in Fresno, so I would say I’m least confident there. I really like the Ohio game against a Troy squad that has plenty of bowl experience. RAWRCATZ have a great chance though with that passing game. Finally, I think Toledo has the best chance of the three because of their opponent in FIU. Sure the…Fightin’ FIU’s?…had a good enough season to get here, but come on. I like Toledo since the 500 Rockets fans who show up will quadruple FIU’s turnout, but mostly because I don’t think FIU is any good.
MGoTim: As I said above, I’m hesitant to rely on Northern Illinois for anything this bowl season, with the question marks surrounding a coaching change, and a pretty good opponent across the field. Ohio really choked down the 
stretch, losing to a bad Kent State team on the last weekend of the regular season when a win would have put them into the conference championship game. Without knowing a ton about this year’s Troy squad, I’ve been programmed to think of them as far and away the class of the Sun Belt, so I’m hesitant to rely on the Bobcats against them. Toledo looks like the best bet of the three MAC teams playing early in the bowl season. FIU barely scraped into a bowl, and the Rockets have the playmakers to take this game. Toledo’s primary weakness (pass defense) isn’t a big liability, because FIU is pretty awful at tossing the rock. BOOK IT for the Rockets.
stretch, losing to a bad Kent State team on the last weekend of the regular season when a win would have put them into the conference championship game. Without knowing a ton about this year’s Troy squad, I’ve been programmed to think of them as far and away the class of the Sun Belt, so I’m hesitant to rely on the Bobcats against them. Toledo looks like the best bet of the three MAC teams playing early in the bowl season. FIU barely scraped into a bowl, and the Rockets have the playmakers to take this game. Toledo’s primary weakness (pass defense) isn’t a big liability, because FIU is pretty awful at tossing the rock. BOOK IT for the Rockets. Hathachips: I think they all win. They are all -1 chalk, and at the top of their divisions. The MAC is a much better conference than it used to be (Except for Eastern, CAW!, MICH, of course). The distribution of talent in the NCAA is more balanced now and I think they have easier bowl match-ups than years past.
Jamie Mac: Everyone is somewhat bullish on the MAC. I guess nobody cares that the league is on a 0-10 ATS postseason run. I dont really care either. My gut instinct tells me the MAC wins two out of these three. But, I’ll break those down in future Bowl Chronicle columns. Let’s go to The Island for the nest question.
I dont typically use the Fremeau Efficiency Rankings as a tool to cap games, but I find those numbers fascinating nevertheless and interesting fodder for CFB discussion. What caught my eye with the FEI and these early games is that Hawaii and Tulsa are ranked next to each other at #’s 56 and 57. Yet, the BOWS are heavy, double digit chalk in this game. Sure, they are hosting the game and that counts for something, but somebody might have to talk me out of making a play with the underdog Tulsa squad on this one. Agree or disagree, and if you disagree, do your best to talk me off this pick.
SteveY: I did say earlier that I thought this line was too large, so I suppose I agree but I wouldn’t bet big money on Tulsa here. Both teams have top notch passing attacks; Hawaii has the best in the nation statistically and Tulsa the 16th best. Both are top ten in total offense. Hawaii has the better defense by a long shot. In a first to 50 type contest, you have to like the team with the better defense (38th nationally in total D to 107th nationally) to get it done. Will they win by two scores though? I won’t try to talk you into betting on the Bows, just to bet reasonably on the giant spread.
MGoTim: Vegas might be playing games with the public here. Hawaii has built up name recognition as a good mid-major team over the past 5 or 6 years, whereas Tulsa is a relatively new name on the block. Even the average fan who knows a little bit about the Golden Hurricane probably knows them more for their erstwhile defensive coordinator – Gus Malzahn, who’s taking his team to the championship game at Auburn. The public is more willing to bet on a name they recognize, so I think Vegas is reacting accordingly.
Hathachips: Excellent question. I believe Hawaii will win and it has everything to do with being at home. If Hawaii had to travel to Texas for a Bowl game how many fans (outside of family members) would show up? Probably 4 and Seth. So 5 total. Tulsa went 9-3 with losses at East Carolina (49-51), at Oklahoma State (65-28 BLOWOUT) and at SMU (21-18). They won 4 of their 9 games against mediocre teams by an average of 3 points. Hawaii on the other hand has won 9 of their last 10 (Loss to Boise State) by an average of 32 points. Their last 5 wins were by no less than 34 points each. Their only win by a single digit (6) was vs. #19 Nevada, at home, where the BOWL JAME is. So Book me the fighting Rainbows -12. Hawaii 48 – Tulsa 27
Jamie Mac: Wow, none of you think a Tulsa team that went into South Bend and won has much of a chance here. Dare I say, I find that, uh, telling?
Anyway, lets keep the crystal ball rolling and make some final predictions. You dont need to give me a call on each game, but give me a few off the cuff, predictions to cover some of these games Feel free to include over/under totals or parlays and teasers as your best bet, if it is indeed your best bet. Basically give me predictions that I can take to the bank, yo!
SteveY: I think all three big favorites listed (BYU, Boise, Hawaii) will win their games. I think Navy and Southern Miss are underdogs with good chances to win outright. I like Utah +17 as the best bet of the bunch. The Utes have won nine straight bowl games! This isn’t a WAC team that’s going to fold if Boise opens up a big lead either, so I doubt we see a big blowout. If you’re worried about betting against Boise (which I might be), then I like the two underdogs with the points that I mentioned above, Navy and Southern Miss.
MGoTim: In a weird twist, I really like BYU to cover -12 against UTEP, although I hated on the Cougars early in the year. They rebounded over the back half of the season, and I look or that to continue in the bowl game over a bad UTEP team. I have a really interesting prop bet for you, as well. In the battle between San Diego State and Navy, will the Aztecs’ passing attack or the Midshipmen’s ground game pile up more yards? Both were within spitting distance of 300 per game all year. I like San Diego State to have the better offensive day with their bread-and-butter, as they’ll have too many athletes on the outside for Navy to deal with.
Hathachips: Boise State vs. Utah OVER 61 is going to be a great game. I see lots of points going on the board (OVER 61) because both teams combine for over 80 ppg. Boise should win this one outright but UTAH should keep it interesting and cover with +17. UTEP +11.5 seems like a solid pick also. Both UTEP and BYU are basically the same team. Bad defenses, alright offenses, same passing and rushing yards. Winner should by BYU, but not by more than a TD. Lastly, Louisville vs. So MISS. OVER 57. S. MISS gives up 29 ppg, while scoring almost 40. Louisville with a worse record should have a more talented team in this matchup so they should be able to put up more than 30, which means we are half way to the OVER. BOOK DAT SHIAT.
Jamie Mac: Wow, MGoTim picking directly against the first Bowl Chronicle of the season in that BYU/UTEP game. Who invited the expert anyway? I kid, I kid. I’m still taking the Miners tomorrow. Maybe we should wager a day of cat chasing on the outcome, Tim. In all seriousness guys, thanks for talking us through these bowls. Enjoy the games, we’ll get back together after the holiday to discuss the next set of bowls!
By Bowl Chronicles: Can The MAC Extend Its Winning Streak? | Just Cover December 18, 2010 - 9:51 AM
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