So. Bowl Season? We like that around here at the JCB. A lot. I have a fun–and profitable–Bowl Chronicles series that we’ve run the last two years, first at mgoblog, then last year here at the JCB digs. That will be revived later this week, with the first bowl games kicking off on Saturday–not the mention a pair of FCS semifinal games and the D2 and D3 Championship Games. The posting has been light recently since the last day of the regular season more than a week ago. Batteries and brains needed to be recharged. Back to regular posting today. We’ve got a ton of football to absorb coming up, and the next month will be a celebration of pigskin around these parts with all sorts of posting planned to get us through the bowl season and the final legs of what promises to be a dramatic conclusion of the NFL season. I can guarantee that I will alienate family, girlfriend and co-workers during this time with my devotion to all things Pizza Pizza, Sun and Champs Sports Bowl related instead of the holidays. But, I wont alienate my loyals readers with anything less than wall-to-wall coverage. Hopefully, we’ll discover a few big winners along the way.
Speaking of which, lets talk about the Fremeau Efficiency Rankings. I will admit that I dont often use these numbers for any handicapping methods. I’m only now beginning to figure out how to use the KenPom numbers in college hoops to pick games. At least with those numbers, I know how they are determined, giving me a better understanding of what they mean as I scour any day’s college hoops schedule for a mismatch. With the FEI, I still dont know how any of these numbers are figured out and, to me at least, makes them not the best tools for guiding you in picking games, especially against the point spread. However, plenty of my blogging brethern speak in these terms when writing and previewing upcoming games, so I try to keep tabs on these numbers. To that end, let’s take a look at the bowl matchups within the FEI prism. Maybe some of these games will indeed turn into formal JCB plays. We’ll see.
| Bowl Game | Team (FEI Ranking) | Team (FEI Ranking) | FEI Gap | Vegas Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday Bowl | Nebraska (12) | Washington (74) | Nebraska +60 | Nebraska -14 |
| Military Bowl | Maryland (27) | East Carolina (71) | Maryland +44 | Maryland -7 |
| Pizza Pizza Bowl | Toledo (95) | Florida International (56) | FIU +39 | Toledo -1.5 |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Boise State (11) | Utah (49) | Boise +38 | Boise -17 |
| Humanitarian Bowl | Northern Illinois (41) | Fresno State (78) | NIU +37 | Northern -1 |
The biggest gap in the rankings exists in the Holiday Bowl matchup between Nebraska, whose ranked 12th in the FEI, and Washington, ranked 74th. We’ve already seen this matchup this year and the results, a 5-TD road win for the Huskers seem to suggest these rankings have this nailed. Nebraska is favored by 14 points per the line this morning. One Caveat Emptor: The Holiday Bowl has been an underdog game throughout its history, although the chalk has bucked the trend to cover in two of the last three games, including the Huskers win over Arizona a year ago. Will the Huskers be motivated playing in the same December as a year ago? Will they be motivated to play the Huskies again? Despite the disparate statistical results, this bowl game is a prime example possibly of the dangers of the disinterested favorite come the college football postseason.
Two of the remaining games involve Maryland and Boise, both of which are solid to heavy chalk. The Terps are a TD-favorite over ECU, while Boise is the biggest chalk on the entire bowl board, laying 17 points to the Utes. But check out the other two games of this quartet: Fresno vs NIU and Toledo vs FIU. In both instances, we have one team that is almost 40 spots better in the FEI rankings. Yet, both games are coin flips, per the Vegas lines. Is this a sign that we should consider dropping some cash on the Huskies and Panthers? I like NIU, and Fresno has a bad history of not showing up for bowl games unless a team from a BCS league is on the other side of the field. The problem is trying to figure out how the defection of coach Jerry Kill and staff will leave Northern. In the FIU/Toledo game, I dont know what to think. I am a little biased as a Toledo native, so I will be pulling for the Rockets to win. I dont think the Sun Belt has any great mid major teams in it, and it comes as a little bit of a surprise to see them ranked so high on the FEI scale. I am formally confused. Luckily, we have a few days yet to sort both of those games out.
I’ll be back with Part 2 that takes a look at the underdogs in bowl season that are ranked higher on the FEI scale than the favored team they are playing.
By Bowl Chronicles: Can The MAC Extend Its Winning Streak? | Just Cover December 18, 2010 - 10:56 AM
[...] Effeciency Index, the 41rst ranked Huskies are 37 spots better than the 78th ranked Bulldogs, one of the biggest gaps between any combatants this bowl season. On paper, its one of the biggest mismatches during this bowl [...]