Here we are. The final weekend of the college football season. A year ago, the championship weekend was a success on three different fronts for the blog. I cant promise these picks will be as good, but we’re playing with house money and we’re going to have some fun on the last Saturday of the season. Bloody Mary’s will be sipped. Brewdoggers eventually chugged. Tailgate-style food will be consumed. Bets will be made. I promised a full picks post, but I wanted to get the calls in for tonight’s game up before those games started. I’ll have tomorrow’s card up a little bit later. I’m still skipping the MAC Championship Game as far as a pick goes. But, i wonder how many folks realize there is a second game tonight. One that involves a Big 10 team, actually. Its not only worth watching, but its one that is more than worth going to the window for.
Fresno +6 (-125) over Illinois x 1…………All I need to know is that this guy, right here, is………
…………………..an underdog tonight. That’s all we really need to know to be interested.
Its hard to believe that the college football regular season is a little more than 24 hours away, and I havent banked anything on one of my favorite plays during the course of any season–taking Fresno State and the Great Fu Manchu as an underdog against a Big Boy School. That ends tonight. Hopefully. Always take the Bulldogs as underdogs against teams from a BCS league. Pat Hill is 22-7-1 ATS in his career at Fresno when catching points against a team from a BCS league. I have these games circled on the calendar well before the season starts. Here’s our chance this year to win some on this annual tradition and hopefully get our Championship Weekend off to a good start. For most of the season, this didnt look like a play to qualify for this, ah, system. Fresno looked to be chalk in this game for most of the season. The Golden Nugget released summer odds back in June and listed the game as FSU -7. The line stayed that way, but began shifting once Illinois beat Penn State and proved to be having a bounce back season. It eventually became a ‘pick ‘em.’ But the betting public, still smarting with the memory of two weeks ago tonight when FSU got shellacked by Boise by 51 points, suddenly needed a lot more enticing to lure in FSU money now that game week has rolled around and its the Illini favored by 5.5 or 6 points. I dont need more enticing than that. I’ll admit the summer line looks laughable, but certainly not the even odds this game has sat at for more than the last two months. I expect a close game. Last year’s game between these two went right down to the wire. Why not this one? Believe me when I say this a Super Bowl of sorts for Fresno. After watching Hill’s team for more than a decade, I think we can say with some certainty that tonight’s game is more important to him that any silly New Mexico or Kraft Hunger Bowl against a fellow mid-major. The Big 10 is coming to town and thats the kind of arrival thats brought out the best out of Fresno for years, at least as it pertains to the pointspread. Mikel LeShoure going up against the 36th ranked rushing D is the matchup to watch. LeShoure has been cutting a swath through defenses down the stretch, but in the Bulldogs he might be facing a much stiffer D than he saw in those games against the likes of Michigan and Northwestern. Just E-pinion. I just dont think outside of LeShoure that Illinois is going to have enough offense in this one. Look for the FSU pass rush to really get to Scheelhase. I cant shake my gut feeling that the Illinois D might be a tad overrated. We might have motivations on the opposite end of the spectrum tonight. Whereas the Bulldogs are frothing to show they can beat a Big 10 team, the Illini kids might be just happy to be here, glad to get away from the cold and maybe just have that lacksadasical focus roadtrips to teams you should beat has a tendency to breakout in the CFB ranks. Besides, the Illini are still coached by Ron Zook, who is 19-31 ATS in his head coaching career as a favorite. So, we have a great underdog coach battling wits with a terrible chalk coach. You know we’re booking something on the Pupster.
The Pick: Fresno +6 (-125) x 1. Game was listed at 5.5, but I bought an extra point up to six. I’m sure some books are offering this price, but not any of mine. If I have any props or anything else going on tonight, I’ll fire up the twitter. Otherwise, stay tuned for the rest of the weekend.
By Championship Saturday: Picks, Part One | Just Cover December 4, 2010 - 9:24 AM
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