It’s Parlay Time, Yet Again. (Updated)

HERP DERP

Here we are, Halloween weekend and tons of games to choose from.  It’s the 2nd half of the season and this should mean that we know what the hell we are talking about.   I personally couldn’t be having a worse year so far.  I took out a second mortgage just to get my balance in sportsbook.com back to where it was 9 weeks ago.  BARRASSING!  At least my #Pick4 is going well.  What do we win anyway?

Card 1:

Oregon -7 (70.5!!!!) @ U$C: I like the quack quack Ducks.  They run a wicked offense that’s averaging 900 points per game.  U$C has been ok, bad defense, but they can score as well.  One thing I continue to hear is that “Oregon hasn’t played any good defenses this year!”  Everyone has an excuse why a team sucks and every team has a problem or an off day.  Oregon has yet to show that.   U$C’s two losses this year have been by 2 (Stanford) and 1 (Washington) points.  If this was 6.5 I would like it a whole lot more, but I can see the Ducks walking out of So Cal with an nice win.  Oregon -7 (QUACK! 38 – U$C 24)

Northwestern -3 (59) @ Indiana: I really enjoyed how the RAWCATZ (NW) played last weekend against MSU.  They only gave up 14 points to the Spartans in 3 quarters to eventually collapse after a super lame fake punt.  The last 3 years this game has been decided by 3 points or less so the spread is accurate, but my golden nugget of info is that Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.  This could be a scoring duel, but I think the NW defense hold back the Hoosiers just enough for a 7 point win.  Northwestern -3 (NW 34 – IND 27)

Navy -13.5 (55) vs. Duke: Duke is the king of the over.  7 of the last 8 vs. Independents hit for the OVER.  Navy is similar, they are 10-3-1 to hit the OVER in their last 14 against ACC opponents.  Duke is giving up 39 ppg and the only way this doesn’t hit the OVER is because of Navy’s constant running game.  They rush for an average just below 300 ypg and throw only at around 100.  Good thing Duke’s defense gives up over 200 ypg on the ground.  Here’s to hoping for dry weather.  OVER 55  (Navy 41 – Duke 24)

Akron @ Temple (48.5): Akron is actually worse than Eastern Michigan!  WHAT?!?! They are 0-8 and giving up 40 ppg.  6-2 Temple put up 30 on Uconn and 42 on Army & Buffalo.  Will Akron actually score?  I sure hope so.  They only put up 15 ppg but Temple is giving up at least 20, so lets do math:  40 + 20 = 60!  OVER 48.5 (Temple 48 – Akron 13) the over/under is not open yet on sportsbook.com, WTF? (9:12pm, Thurs)

Singular Bet:  MICH @ Penn State OVER 53: Again I like the over for a Michigan game.  NO WAY!  Penn State is down on defense due to injuries, meaning MICH will score a lot. And even though the Knitting Lions are starting a walk on QB, they will score in bunches on the terrible MICH defense.  Joe Paterno himself could throw a few TD’s against MICH, not gonna lie.  I love the Wolverines, but that D is not tremendous.  BOOK IT, OVER 53  (MICH 34 – PSU 27)

Running out of time People.  I will try to add more tomorrow and hopefully that Temple/Arkon Over will be available.  I’ll take that shiat at 53 if I have to.

MICH!

UPDATE:

#18 Iowa -6.5 (50.5) vs. #5 Michigan State: Iowa is coming off a heart-breaking loss at home to Wisconsin, 31-30, that crushed their Big Ten title hopes.  Michigan State is still wondering how a completely terrible fake punt pass helped them beat Northwestern on the road after being down by 17.  Iowa loves their home crowd.  They play their best football at home.  I’m not sure if it’s the pink lockers, but their home record since 2001 is 55-11.  Michigan State loves criminals.  “Zero Tolerance” has brought back their star defensive back, Chris L. Rucker, after being in jail for 8 days for a DUI.  This coming just a year after his involvement in a potluck party brawl where multiple football players (lead by the 2009 fellow 2^nd chanc-er, Glenn Winston) punched random people who were enjoying potato salad and pork steaks.

After being given a second opportunity,” Coach Dantonio said Dec. 5, 2009, “there is a zero-tolerance policy, meaning that if there are any issues whatsoever, it’s a done deal.”

Maybe he wasn’t expecting his team to be 8-0 this year.  Maybe nobody informed Dantonio what “zero tolerance” actually means?  You’ve got to take this into account.  Will Rucker showing up unit the team?  If I were the back-up who has played the last 2 weeks in his spot (while still helping the team win) I would be pissed. But I guess that’s how it works over in East Lansing.  The “win at all cost” mentality has taken over.  Most likely because they don’t know what it’s like to win this much.

So down to the pick.  We all saw how MSU played on the road last weekend.  An early red-zone fumble by NW and a fake punt in the 3rd helped the Sparty’s squeak by.  Without that MSU whould have lost 35-17 easy.  Don’t look for mistakes like that to happen at Iowa.  IOWA -6.5 (31-17)

OVER OBSERVATION:

Early this morning I checked the Akron Temple game on sportsbook.com, still no availability on the over/under bet.   Not sure what the deal is.  I also took a look at the covers.com consensus picks and noticed they have 5 games with an over 70% consensus to hit the over.   Might as well throw $5 on that and see if the majority IS always right.   Here they are. (compliments to covers.com, a most excellent e-betting site) The Colorado/Oklahoma game is OFF! on Sportsbook.com.  What the shit.   I took the other 4, OVER.  $5 to win $50.

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