The SEC conference season opens tonight with an SEC West battle between Auburn and Mississippi State in Starkville. Two seasons ago on this field, these teams set SEC football back a couple of generations with a 3-2 classic. Insert a cliche, Chris Berman-like Frank Thomas won it with a home run in the ninth joke here. Tonight will be a different story. Offensive fireworks are a team strength for both squads. The Vegas line for total points scored is Auburn O/U 29.5, Mississippi State O/U 27.5, and total points combined O/U 54. The public expects points tonight and multiple sources are calling for a game with both teams reaching the 30-point mark. Both teams beat up on soft mid-majors last week, so it’s a good measuring stick this evening to see how any of that success translates in a good, yet not old-fashioned SEC battle. With the offenses expected to shine, it gives us a perfect opportunity to unveil the JCB Over/Under Board and a series of props that surely will decide the outcome of the game. Before going forward, I must give a shoutout to my friend Jerry over at the War Blog Eagle for his insights that helped me behind the scenes to determine just the right props to “release” for this game. If you want great Auburn and SEC coverage you need to make his blog a daily read. On to tonight’s props.
Cameron Newton, total yards of offense, O/U 300.5 yards
The expected star of the game. Cam Newton gives Auburn a chance to have something they havent had in a while: the best offensive player on the field.
Cam Newton racked up close to 400 total yards of offense against Arkansas State in his Auburn debut
Denard Robinson is rightfully getting a ton of press this week, but Cam Newton’s game was statistically as impressive as he rolled up 171 yards rushing and 186 passing against Arkansas State in the opener last week. Newtonpalooza is all the rage on the Plains right now. He won SEC Offensive Player Of The Week honors, the first Tiger player to do that in four years. It’s been a long journey for the cant-miss recruit, original Florida enrollee turned junior college star. Is it finally his time to make an impact on the SEC? Newton came within a hair of signing with MSU and head coach Dan Mullen a year ago. In fact, the last time he was in Starkville was for the Egg Bowl last year where he cheered cowbell in hand for the Dawgs. A few weeks later, however, he comitted to Auburn. Folks in Starkville are having some fun with Newton’s return to town tonight. As I see it, one of the most underrated storylines begins tonight with him. Auburn hosts Clemson and South Carolina to close out September. It’s a great run of competition. And if Newton remains impressive by the end of it, then the race for the SEC West crown is on. And dont be surprised if Auburn, with home games against its toughest league foes until the finale against Bama, becomes a frontrunner in that chase in the fall. That would be significant progress for a team that’s had back-to-back losing SEC campaigns. As for tonight, I dont see why he wont put up some decent to big numbers. He’s going against an MSU D that yielded 35 points a game to bowl teams a year ago. They’ve been one of the worst defenses in the nation for years at getting to the quarterback, so I don’t think you’re going to see the type of pressure that would rattle a new quarterback. I would not take him out of your fantasy roster. And its going to be fun tonight watching him pursue this total.
Chad Bumphis/Brandan Heavens, total combined receiving yards, O/U 150.5
So Mississippi State apparently has a passing attack. This could come as a surprise to folks who might recall the passing disaster from a year ago that saw Bulldog QBs toss almost twice as many picks as touchdowns with only two receivers catching more than 15 balls. MSU threw nine TD passes last year. In the opener against Memphis, they tossed 5 between Tyler Russell’s 4 and Chris Reif’s one. Sophomores wideouts Chad Bumphis and Brandon Heavens each went for 100 yards and two scores, while senior Leon Barry, one of the SEC’s best kick returners, added 91 yards and a score. The beauty of Week 2 is we get to see how much truth and how much mirage the results from Week One are. I’m watching this to see if Dan Mullen’s offense that shredded Memphis can do damage in a conference game. They might have a perfect foil in Auburn. The Tigers gave up way too many yards against Arkansas State than any War Eagle backer wanted to see. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof’s defenses have always been good against the run, aggresive and able to generate turnovers. But they’ve also specialized in letting receivers catch the ball. Summer wisdom said that with better depth, the Tigers could run Roof’s schemes better, but if Game One was any indication, the Tigers still yield too many yards in bunches. Can the redshirt freshmen QB Russell and his sophomore receiving threats parlay success against Memphis into SEC production? Bumphis was a legit recruit, a Rival’s 4-star and 16h overall receiver in the 2009 class. Heavens was labelled more of a project as he was a 3-atar ‘athlete’ in that same class, ranked 20 spots below, for example, the aforementioned Robinson from Michigan within that designation. Bumphis had a solid freshmen season, but Heavens barely played on offense registering just a single catch a year ago. The former Auburn commit, has gone from Plan B to Bulldog weapon in the MSU gameplan. Seeing both of them go for 100 yards receiving in the opener makes me hopeful that maybe Mississippi State finally has some dangerous weapons to pay attention to. We’ll see what their encore is tonight.
Mississippi State, Longest Run After Catch 40.5 yards
One of the nuances behind the possible struggle of Auburn’s pass defense is the amount of yards they give up after the catch. Even though they scored virtually every time they had the ball in the first half, the Tigers had problems shaking off Arkansas State a week ago. A large part of it was the over 100 yards in the first half the Indians were able to move after catching a pass. Four different receivers had runs of more than 10 yards after the catch. Arky State took an early lead on a drive where they accumulated over 50 yards after catch. We know Mullen will look to get his playmakers in space and let them make plays in the open field. Auburn will cede YAC. Can they contain it? Thats the question here. Or do the Bulldogs have at least one bigtime, explosive passing play in them covering close to half a field running after the catch? Both Bumphis and Heavens have the slot ninja look and yards after the catch is their game. Most books will offer props on the longest touchdown scored. We’re doing things a little differently in this one, narrowing it down to one specific team and a stat that doesnt show up in the boxscore, but thats expected to tell a big part of the tale this evening. As for 40.5 number, my unofficial count saw the longest YAC Arkansas State got a week ago was 41 yards after the catch. So that’s where we are setting the bar tonight.
Leon Berry, Kickoff Return Yards, O/U 105.5 yards
The Bulldogs might have the best kick return specialist in the SEC in the senior Leon Berry. He had over 1,000 yards in this role a year ago, for an average 26.7 yards per pop. For comparison, that’s every bit as good a Daryl Stonum’s season a year ago, which was a record setting one for the Michigan program and something many of us Wolverine fans hung some hope all off season. So this guy is dangerous back there.
Leon Berry set a single season MSU record for kickoff returns in 2009 and blew up for 246 totaly yards against Auburn
Auburn did not have get return coverage a year ago. This will be a big test to see if this unit is shored up enough or if its still a weakness that will conspire to keep the Tigers from a legit run at the West crown. This will be a shootout tonight. Berry ought to get anywhere from 4-6 chances back there. Can Auburn boom a touchback or two? Maybe Auburn will just kick away from him? If Berry can return every one, I would have to set this at an unreasonable number for anyone to take the Under. In the end, I think Auburn kicks away from him enough that he doesnt max out his chances. Still, if he has a great game, this will still go Over the total. If he has a good game, then we’ll be right in the ballpark of 100 return yards.
Michael Dyer, Rushing Yards, O/U 60.5
We’re college football fans. That makes us, whether we want to admit it or not, creepers. We’re infatuated with high school boys, glued to homemade highlight reels, convincing ourselves that if our program can sign this teenaged stud, then all will be well with the future. No creeper crush went as deep for some a year ago than the one for Michael Dyer. Per Rivals, he was the second ranked running back in the class, and 11th overall talent. The Little Rock native spurned an offer from Arkansas and four others in the SEC including Florida and Alabama to attend Auburn. He had a nice debut. He had 95 yards on 14 carries. He was the most productive Auburn tailback on the day. He got a lot of yards after game was decided, but also had carries in the second quarter for Auburn. Then again, he’s third on the depth chart, so who knows how much he’s involved in the gameplan if a tightly contested SEC brawl breaks out. He’s already making a name for himself and if the folks ahead of him keep fumbling like Mario Fannin did in the opener, then he’ll see even more touches. In a perfect situation, he would be Auburn’s inside thunder right now. The theme for everyone in this game is how will good performances against a so-so mid-major translate against SEC football. Its not any different from Dyer. The creeper in me cant wait to see how one of the more talented incoming freshmen, and most talented recruit Auburn has had in a while, plays against an SEC team.
So those are my props to follow as this one plays out tonight in Starkville. I know what you’re going to ask next. Who is going to win and cover the spread? This line started at Auburn -3, but as we approach the afternoon of the game, it’s down to -1.5. I respect what Mullen is doing at Mississippi State. I think they make a bowl game this year, perhaps a return to the Liberty Bowl where they ended the 2007 campaign, their last postsesaon appearance. This team is a year away from threatening the 8- to 9-win range. I dont think they have the experience to pull this one out. And as improved and explosive the Dan Muullen offense looks in Starkville, I’ll take the Cam Newton team to outscore them in the end.
The Pick: Auburn -1.5
Book It!
[...] not sure everyone has taken stock of just how impressive Cam Newton has been for Auburn (despite Jamie Mac’s efforts). Piling up 322 passing yards, 241 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in his first two games, [...]