Week One in college football is in the books. I’ll have my weekly Blog Poll ballot up later tonight. Beginning next week, I’ll do the standard post a draft of the ballot on Monday, let the readers skewer it, then produce my final ballot by the next day. With the holiday weekend, I’m sure I’m not the only voter playing catchup, but assure everyone I will cast my final ballot before Wednesday gives way to Thursday. With that disclaimer on the way, let’s move on to the Week One recap post.
It was not a brilliant opening weekend at the window for the JCB’s picks. But it wasnt a disaster either. Kellen Moore to Austin Pettis not only gave Boise a big win, but it leveled our record on the first week at 4-4-1. Among the great picks include winning on Boise–again–as the rest of the country faded them, getting in early on the Denard Robinson show with Michigan easily covering the spot of -3 against UConn and Oregon State coming in under the +13.5 in their showdown against TCU, a line that had been beckoning me all summer long.
As for the bad? Well, Colorado State was a mistake. I hinted Saturday that I might be forcing this pick and it came back to bite me. What’s worse is the series with Colorado is always one I avoid gambling on, despite its strong slant towards the underdog every year. It figures that when I jump on the bandwagon that the Rams would get blown out. I should have laid off the Michigan/UConn Over once I saw the wind up in Ann Arbor, although I still feel if UConn puts that drive into the end zone instead of fumbling it away on the 2 near the end of the third quarter that the total would have tilted Over. I suppose I would like to have those two picks back. However, they arent even close to the biggest mistake I made opening weekend.
It’s been almost 72 hours, but I am still kicking myself for betting against Fresno against a BCS school. Talk about a ridiculous move, one that involved ignoring one of my basic strategic tenants going into each season. Always take the Fresno State Bulldogs when they step up in class and take on a team from a BCS league. Always. No exceptions. First thing I do everytime I pick up my preseason magazines is seek out Fresno’s schedule and circle the dates of the 2-3 matches they have with teams from the Big 6 leagues. I did the same this year and all summer expected to be taking Fresno over Cincy. Until they were installed as a chalk. I didnt just balk at taking them. Worse, I went against them. I apologize to the Great Fu Manchu Pat Hill and his charges. When you invade Oxford later this month to take on the Rebels, I’ll be first in line at the window. Of course, after the Rebels lost to Jacksonville State over the weekend, you might be the chalk in that one too. This time, I wont care.
We trudge on with our .500 record into Week 2 of the college season, not to mention the opening of the NFL. I’m not ready to dole out picks just yet, but, for the moment, here are the games that I am officially leaning towards. When tiggers get pulled, you JCB readers will be the first to know.
Michigan +4 over ND…….its an underdog series. I told everyone to make sure they got +7 over the summer. Hopefully, people followed by lead. I still feel good about this number, even though it’s a field goal lower now.
Miami +9 over OSU…….I’ve thought all summer this game would closer than the experts think, so I will likely be buying.
Hawaii +2.5 over Army……One team put on an offensive show against USC. The other struggled with Eastern Michigan. Yet, the Bows are catching points. I might bite despite the cross country trip and early start time.
BYU +1 over Air Force……BYU just always has the Pilots number. Not sure anybody outside of the Big 3 in the MWC will beat anybody in the Big 3. Almost playing this one on sheer principle alone.
South Carolina -2 over UGA…..I always say watch out for South Carolina in this series. Rarely are they chalk, but, man, I was impressed with them in Week One. I cant shake the feeeling that Steve Spurrier is going to be a major storyline this fall. They move to 2-0.
Kansas +14 over Georgia Tech….yeah, you’re reading that correctly. What can I say? I’ve made a living taking teams who are road dogs the week after losing outright as double digit favorites. This line was -7 during the summer. Dollars to doughnuts, the final score lands somewhere between the summer and current point spreads.
Florida State +8 over Oklahoma…..The team with the better, more dangeorus QB is starting 8 points ahead. Interesting,
Auburn -2 at Mississippi…..this is tomorrow night. I am leary, but I have a guy, he knows the SEC and he likes this one. I’ll have a special Over/Under board for this tomorrow and, perhaps, even a formal play. Tune it.
Indy -1.5 at Houston…..wait, what? An NFL lean? You bet. It must be still summertime if people are talking up the Texans. Do the Colts still have Peyton Manning? If they do, I’ll take them against their AFC South rivals all the time, home or away, with a number this small………BUT, I suck at the NFL. This could be a trap. 50/50.
So those are the games I am leaning towards. Please give me feedback. These are off-the-cuff thoughts. Tty to talk me out of some of them, I am all ears. More importantly, try and take me into games not on the list. We have a few more days yet to finalize Saturday’s card and I would appreciate the help.
Three games that I am tempted by…
FAU +28.5 vs. Michigan State (@Ford Field) — Sparty, NO!
Alabama -12.0 over Penn State — Bolden had a nice first game against an FCS cupcake, but how will he fair against the Tide in Tuscaloosa? I think this one could be ugly for JoePa and the Nits.
Oregon -12.5 at Tennessee — UT is a mess, blowout victory over FCS cupcake notwithstanding, the Ducks will roll on Rocky Top.
I've got 2 units on Auburn tommorrow night (they are at Miss St., btw, not Miss)…I hope I'm right in my faith in Mahlzahn's O.
Miami +9 over OSU…….I’ve thought all summer this game would closer than the experts think, so I will likely be buying.
I like Miami a lot in this game. Miami has the firepower to put up points and can the athletes to hang with the Bucks on D. Tressel is known to go conservative in these types of games so I can't see the Bucks winning by multiple TDs. I think Miami can win this thing outright, so plus 9 makes it a surefire bet for me.
Alabama -12.0 over Penn State — Bolden had a nice first game against an FCS cupcake, but how will he fair against the Tide in Tuscaloosa? I think this one could be ugly for JoePa and the Nits.
Love this line for bama. Frosh QB against a saban defense, ouch. Not to mention a YSU penguin was able to outrun Nittany Lion defenders – even if Ingrham can't go Richardson should have a huge game.
Florida State +8 over Oklahoma…..The team with the better, more dangeorus QB is starting 8 points ahead. Interesting,
I like the Noles in this one. Oklahoma's defense looked like hot Garbage against Utah State. Now they have to face a legit QB who has a lot of speedy weapons. The FSU defense is always full of athletes so it should have no problem matching up with the sooners. And I'm not sold on Landry Jones, I don't think he can win a game on his own. I would like the noles with a plus 4 or 5, Plus 8 seems like another surefire bet for me.
Ugh…follow up on the Auburn/Miss St. game. I placed my bet when the line was Auburn -3.0 so I got the dreaded "push" after Auburn had their 37 yard FG blocked.
Damn you, Angry Logan Betting Hating God!
that sucks, Logan. Twice this week my procrastination came in handy. Both the Boise and Auburn games would have been pushes, but I waited–I'd like to say it was strategy, but it wasnt–and got lucky with the lines. Two pushes turned into two winners……..which means I expect to be screwed by a couple lines before the weekend's out. That stuff always evens itself out somehow. But, hey, you still have that money in your pocket and its a big day tomorrow.