Boise’s position reminds me a lot like Florida State in the 1990s, the first years after they joined the ACC. The ‘Noles were laps better than everyone else in their league the moment they arrived. You knew nobody would beat them. Their undefeated season and national title chances rested on the outcome of some non conference showdowns strategically dotting the schedules. They had a 2-3 season, at best. I used to joke with my friend Gordon, a big Nebraska fan, that the chase for the national championship begins only once Florida State losses. It was part tribute to their talent, but mostly a statement that their chances of going undefeated was greater because of their easier schedule than everyone else. To be sure, the Noles annual showdowns against the Canes and Gators in those days are much tougher than the Va Tech/Oregon State two-step the Broncos are doing in 2010 and, despite the Noles dominance, the ACC week in, and week out at least was a legit conference compared to the WAC. So, its not 100 percent comparable. But, I think the college season hangs in the balance much like those seasons. The chase for the national title kind of begins only when Boise losses. They’ve been knocking on the door for years, an 11-season climb from little known, blue turf mid major monster to a spot where they’re only a couple months of fortuitious football away from playing for a national championship. They have the right preseason poll starting point for this happen. If they win tonight, I would put money on them being the top-ranked team in the coaches poll after the final regular season ballot. In fact, they might ascend to that spot before November even begins.
Point of order: Let’s be clear. I am not advocating this. Nor am I arguing against it. All my statement is is something we do a lot around here. A prediction. Nothing more, nothing less. Whether you like it or not, thats how this season will end up. If Boise wins tonight, I think they will be the #1 team in the important coach’s poll after the final regular season tally. With that spot, its hard to imagine the BCS computers not granting them a spot in the title game. The 2010 season is colored a lot like those seasons in the mid- to late-1990s with Florida State. The chase for the title begins only when, and if, Boise State losses. And after tonight, they wont be any less than a 2-TD favorite in their remaining games. Tonight, though, the line stands Virginia Tech Hokies -1.5. We’ll find out soon if two or just one spot is up for grabs in the eventual BCS Championship Game.
It’s a fascinating matchup for me because these have been two of my favorite teams for years. I have a hard time betting against either of these programs. The Hokies have never really been a cover machine, but they’ve been the best big game program within conference play since joining the ACC in 2004, are 3-1ATS in ACC title games and 4-2 ATS in bowl games in that span. I’ve just a had a knack of knowing when to play this team. As for Boise, I’ve been playing this team virtually every time they’ve played on their blue turf since ‘discovering’ them when they hosted the 1999 Humanitarian Bowl against Louisville. One of my biggest scores ever happened five years later in the Liberty Bowl when the Broncos covered (albeit in a losing effort) and the over hit against the same Louisville program. I constantly promote Boise as being capable of competing in the Pac 10 based on their 4-2 SU, 6-0 ATS record against the Oregon schools since 2004. I bet on Boise in all those games, and I had them in each of last two bowl seasons against TCU. I have had a lot of good times with the Broncos and Hokies. I dont feel comfortable picking against these teams. This game is impossible for me to handicap because of my biases.
I will say I cant wait to see this coaching matchup. The offensive experience, creativitiy and talent of Boise vs the confusing, phyiscal and suffocating defensive schemes of Va Tech. Bud Foster is in the top-5 of defensive coordinators in the nation. Chris Peterson is one of the top-5 offensive playcallers in the game. What will Foster’s gameplan be to slowdown the Kellen Moore show. Boise doesnt give up sacks and Moore never tosses picks. The Hokies defense, year in and year out, punish QBs, force ducks and turn you over. Whats great about this is that it might be Foster’s greatest challenge he’s faced in a couple of years. At the same time, it might be the biggest challenge that Moore and company will have faced in their careers, with all due respect to TCU of course. Foster has to replace eight starters from a year ago, giving Boise an edge on paper. Boise always has something up their sleeve in these big games. And we’ve seen the Hokies regularily turn games in their favor with dominant special teams. This is one of the more exciting gadget play, special teams matchups on paper that I’ve ever seen. Between Titus Young and Jayron Hosley, dont be surprised to see a kick return taken to the house. As a home viewer, you cant take a play off. This game will most likely hinge somehow on a play during which one team is in punt formation.
When the Hokies are on offense, I like Tyrod Taylor’s game. He throws as good a deep as anyone else in the land. And I cant wait to see how this, together-again-and-it-feels-so-good, 1-2 tailback punch of Darren Evans and Ryan Williams will run. All that said, I like Boise’s defensive staff much more than the Hokies counterparts on offense. We’re always scratching our heads about an inconsistent Hokie offense, despite how much we like some of the individual talent they’re lining up. I dont trust their ability to put up a bunch of points on a Bronco defense with 10 starters back. They’re rebuilding one side of the line and I think a Boise defense that stoned Oregon and TCU’s rushing attack a year ago can can do the same against admittedly a less dynamic and polished Hokie attack. That said, this will be a lot more physical of a running attack than Boise typically sees. Fresno put up over 300 yards rushing playing power football against Boise a year ago, for example. They did flat out stoned Oregon and TCU potent running games, but those were out of spread attacks. Can they handle the power and multiple legs of Virginia Tech.
On paper, Boise looks great with 10 starters back on both sides of the ball. Virginia Tech looks good, but have a lot more question marks and new faces in their lineup. If you dressed this exact Boise team in Scarlett and Gray, they would be favored by at least a touchdown. And I think that happens to be the margin of victory tonight. At least. Boise wins. The arguments start. Book It.
The Pick: Boise, +1.5…..I’ve already heard three different ESPN personalities today say they are going to go with the minority and pick Virginia Tech. Like maybe all them shouldnt share the same script. Regardless, I dont who this minority is anyway. This pointspread was Boise -3 96 hours ago. It’s a pick ‘em this afternoon. In the last four days, everyone has been betting Tech. I dont mind being on the bookies side on this one. In a matchup between two of my favorite teams, I’ll just fade the room and hope for the best.
If I lose my bet, the silver lining will be a more interesting college football season, one that wont be dominated by weekly do they deserve to be here arguments centered around Boise State. That could be construed as a long term win, I suppose.
