The first Saturday of the season arrives and its a very unattractive big board for somebody like me who has an aversion towards playing games that are expected be blowouts. Of the 27 games listed for tomorrow, 9 of them have pointspreads of at least four touchdowns, with seven of those requiring an outlay of more than 30 points in chalk. Another 10 carry at least a double digit price. There are a lot of power teams tomorrow playing glorified scrimmages like the Florida Gators playing Miami Ohio as 36.5-point favorites. Want to really make that game interesting? Enter our JCB Pick-4 contest (it’s freee!!!!) and try your hand at the Florida passing touchdowns prop that’s part of the game. Go. Do it. Now. Gamble away all your JCB Dollars.
Speaking of that pick-4, here are my picks for the contest: Michigan Over 3.5 TFLs, ND Under 33.5 points, Florida Under 5.5 TD passes, Will Kellen Moore throw a pick, Yes.
Now onto the real picks of the day.
Colorado State +11.5 over Colorado…..a strict historical play. The underdogs in this game is 14-7 ATS since the mid 1980s, which is just a fancier way of saying Colorado State covers a lot in this series since the Rams are annually the puppy in this Rocky Mountain Showdown every year. Do I think the Rams are some sort of sleeper team ready to pounce? No. But, I dont think the Buffs are going to be any good either this season. And, even in this down years in recent seasons for CSU, they’ve still showed their best hand early on in the season when the hated Buffs are on the other side of the line of scrimmage. I dont mind playing historic trends, but I would be lying if I said I wasnt concerned in this one. It’s not a series I typically play. The early, noon slate just has no juice to it. This is an earlier kick and at least it gives me something to track during tailgating hours. This might be a forced play, but I’m comforted by how these games have played out over the last two decades.
Purdue +11 over Notre Dame…..I’ve been threatening this play all summer long. I’m sticking with it. Purdue was only a few plays away from having a really good season a year ago. They played everybody close in their losses it seemed. I also dont trust first year head coaches laying heavy chalk like this. Even though it means going against Brian Kelly, I think this game stays within single digits. Besides betting against the Irish as home favorites in South Bend has become quite the moneymaker in the post Lou Holtz times. Since the lispy leprechaun left town, the Irish are a dismal 26-42-1 ATS as home chalk, including 1-5 in that role a year ago. I’m biting. It’s the Robert Marve Era in West Lafayette, what could go wrong? The Irish have owned Purdue in season openers, but thats just a set of seven games over the course of this annual fight. I prefer the history behind Purdue having covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. Purdue wins if they get pressure on new Irish QB Dayne Crist and with Ryna Kerrigan bullrushing off the line, they’ll get enough pressure to do no worse than keep this game closer than the experts think.
Oregon State +13.5 vs TCU…..this line has been taunting me for weeks. I just cant believe the number is this big. I know the Beavers are replacing their productive QB from a year ago, and that sometimes the word quarterback in Corvallis is local for Interception Machine. Canfield really smashed that meme to smithereenes a bit, but I’m unconvinced that the next guy will step in and keep the sudden, consistent play behind center. That said, there’s more than enough offense from OSU to do enough damage to hang point for point with TCU. I’ll take any team catching points with the Rodgers brothers and four returning starters in tow. After back-to-back years of having just 3 defensive starters, the Beavs welcome 7 back this year. I think that means a return to the sack happy, takeaway seeking defense that regressed a bit last year in those departments despite another run at the Pac 10 title. This is the epitome of a something’s got to give matchup. OSU is 14-4 in their last 18 chances as an underdog, while TCU is 15-5 in their last 20 appearances as chalk. I’m siding with the underdog because I like head starts. Especially ones that are close to two touchdowns. TCU is stacked this year, but the Beavers have as much returning to their starting unit as they’ve had in years. It will be interesting to see how TCU’s nasty defense, geared to stopping spread attacks, handles the more traditional approach of OSU. Is the one that gets away from TCU, preventing the Frogs from a BCS repeat? The difference in this game will eventually be the better QB play of TCU’s Andrew Dalton, but I dont think its 14 points better. The Beavers have been one of my special programs that I track and like to play on or against depending on the situation. I’m sticking to my instincts here and hoping that a match between the #9 and #15 teams on my Blog Poll ballot will play an exciting, down-to-the-wire game.
Cincinnati +3 (-125) at Fresno….I really can not believe I’m betting against Fresno against a BCS club. Usually I make dough every year on Pat Hill’s team when they take on the big boys. But they’re always underdogs in those game. Tonight, they’re chalk. I’ve expressed fear already about teams playing in an opposite role than usual, such as this case. I stuck by the side of one of those teams last night with Utah and survived–barely. As for this game, you know what I cant get out of mind? It’s what we saw a couple of years ago when the Bulldogs were -3 at home against the Badgers. They lost they game outright. I think history repeats itself this eveing in the Valley. The Bulldogs have always been feisty underdogs, but whimpering favorites. For example, they’re 2-10-1 the last four years as home chalk. With the Bearcats in town, Fresno is giving points to the best team they’ve faced in this money burning subset. Cincy were 17-point favorites when these teams played a year ago. Are Brian Kelly, Tony Pike and Marty Gilyard worth a 20-point swing in price? Are they worth the 11-point swing from last year’s margin of victory to what’s needed for FSU to cover this number? I really dont think so. I am a big fan of what the Bearcats still have. Zach Collaros may be every bit as explosive as a college QB as Pike was. He accounted for 14 TDs when he subbed for the injured starter a year ago. He has great targets in Armon Binns and DJ Woods. Three starters return up front with very experienced backups from the last two seasons entering the lineup at the other two spots. I think this offense continues to roll. The Bearcats have three straight 10-win seasons and back-to-back BCS Bowl bids. I feel its a rule, somewhere in the back of the book, likely written in fine print with fancy words, that demands you play a team with that profile as an underdog against a mid-major.
Michigan -2.5 over UConn O/U 53.5…… I. Just. Cant. Resist. Michigan had a winning ATS record at home a year ago, so no worries, amirite!?!? Oh wait, that counts the Babby Seal shellacking as -39 -point chalk against Delaware State. I’m pretty sure any stat that involves results from that contest automatically gets scrubbed from the books. Ok. Fine. This play is all gut and heart. But, I think the Wolverines win. A little too much team speed. A little too much Denard. A little too much explosiveness on offense. Michigan will have the last shot in this shootout and, like the ND game a year ago, will win it in the end. But, hold on. There’s more. I am also taking Over 53. Get ready for the first of at least six games this season where both teams score at least 30 points in a Michigan game. Sounds fun, doesnt it?
How about. A six-pack for the first Saturday. Whatever you do today, good luck and have a blast watching the true national pasttimes this afternoon. And, if I may dip into a blantant show of Homerism:
GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
