While the undercards might not float your boat and the late night special between USC and Hawai’i is expected to be a Rainbow Slayin,’ the opening night of the college football season does bring at least one legit showdown to the table this evening. The unquestioned main event on this Game Day, not to mention one of the more important out of conference games this month, is Pitt traveling to the Beehive State to square off with the Utah Utes. Why should you watch? I’ll give you seven reasons to tune in, in honor of this post’s sponsor: Mark Dantonio’s 7 Flavors Ice Cream Shoppe, the dessert choice of state and federal institutions throughout Michigan. Thanks for the shout out, coach.
1.) These have been two of the better teams the last two seasons. In the now, these are elite programs, evidenced by their 42-10 combined record the last two seasons. Both are legit contenders for their league championships. Both feel their season can and should end in a BCS Bowl. Some of those hopes get dashed tonight, especially if you’re Utah whose league does not have an automatic bid into the big bowl party. Despite not having an automatic BCS bid to play for, the Utes have developed into a consistenly outstanding program over the last decade. For Pitt, its been said that this might be the biggest challenge on the Panthers slate. But Pitt still has the Big East bid to win should they stumble tonight, later in the month against the Canes, or both. AFter back-to-back December bowls, the program is on BCS or Bust alert. Regardless, anytime you have legit top-20 teams with a better than .800 combined winning percentage in recent seasons, its a game you build your viewing schedule around.
2.) How big is this game for conference bragging rights? So much so that three leagues might have a vested interest in the outcome. Obviously the MWC gets a big feather in their cap with a Utah win and could make a legit claim to being more of a power-6 league than the Big East. As for that league, they’ve really struggled attaining legitimacy within the college football punditry and blogging class and the outcome tonight will again move those goalposts. Can the Panthers win and get those posts trending towards some positive Big East press? The third league with a dog in this race is probably the Pac 10, since the Utes will join the conference next season. How will the suits in the league office feel about their sparkly new addition losing a home game to a Big East club? Not good enough to beat a Big East team? Uh, welcome to the Pac 10?
3.) Dion Lewis. One of my favorite college football players to watch. A total stud.
As a freshman a year ago, he carried the Panthers. He had over 2,000 total yards and scored 18 touchdowns. Get this man on your college football fantasy team, STAT. The highlight might have been the opening drive of the de facto Big East title game with Cincinnati a year ago when the Panthers marched right down the field to score a touchdown. It was a 9-play drive and Lewis ran the ball on every play en route to a 228-yard day. At least twice tonight, he’ll make a move on a would-be tackler that will force your hand and require a DVR rewind. He’s real threat to take home the Heisman Trophy. At 12/1 odds he’s actually fourth in line after Terrelle Pryor, 3.5/1; Mark Ingram, 4/1; and Ryan Mallett, 10/1. Of course, its a crowded group at 12/1 that also includes Jacory Harris, Chrsitian Ponder and John Clay, among others. But, if you’re a believer in this Pitt program and think their season ends in something as romantic as a Fiesta or Orange Bowl, why not take a flier on Lewis to home the trophy? There’s no way the Panthers reach those heights without another monster season from Lewis. He’ll be an even more legit favorite for this hardware if that happens. Regardless, because of the competition he’s facing tonight, Lewis gets to make the first Heisman statement of the season.
4.) Dave Wannstedt is coaching. It’s always important to catch some of Pitt’s game every week just so you’re not caught off guard reading the This Week in Schadenfruede that MGoBrian puts together every week in the season. I’m giddy at the prospect of a coaching boner this early in the season out of Wanny. Something like going 20 minutes of game time without giving Lewis a touch sounds about right.
5.) Can Utah handle its role change. I touched on this earlier in the week when I lamented that all my favorite underdog programs are actually favored this week against allegedly bigger time opponents thatn they usually face. It’s forced into some deeper thoughts than usual for my opening week card. Utah is on that list. The Utes have always been one of my favorite underdog programs, especially against teams from a BCS League. They are 14-4 ATS since 2000 in that role. I had this game circled as a possibilitiy, but low and behold, it’s game week and Utah is chalk. I am always interested in seeing how teams handle and adapt those kind of changed expecations and different roles. Can a money underdog program still cash in as chalk against a power conference team? We’ll find out tonight how the Utes adjust to the betting public’s new expectation of them. It’s funny the mind of a handicapper. Had Utah been +2 I wouldnt think twice about betting the game. However, at -2, I’m hesitant, worried that I might be walking right into a trap.
6.) When Utah has the ball, watch the great battle in the trenches between Utah’s offensive line with four starters returning from a year ago swapping paint with the Panthers D-Line and its playmaking defensive ends. And there’s quality to go with the returning quantity on both sides of the ball. The Utes have Zane Taylor at Center and Caleb Schlauderaff at Left Guard, both made the first-team all MWC a year ago. Their charge tonight will be to block a very productive front 7 that was the Panthers strength a year ago and remains so today. Bookend ends Greg Romeues and Jaball Sheard combined for 13 sacks and 10 TFLs a year ago. It’s actually a crazy matchup, that really deserves to go in the something has got to give category. The Utes strength up front is the interior of their line, which matches up with the weakness of the Pitt front seven. However, if there is a hole on the Utes line its at the right tackle position, so one of those ends for the Panther needs to take advantage if the new starter is lineup up against them.
7.) The above was a strength vs strength key, so how about a question mark vs question mark key? That would be Pitt’s passing attack going up against the Utes revamped defensive backfield. The Panthers have to replace QB Bill Stull who had a really solid season in 2009 completing over 65 percent of his throws, 21 scoring strikes and a better than 3:1 TD/INT ratio. First up as replacement is sophomore Tino Sunseri, who has all of 17 career attempts. Panther followers are cautiously optimistic that Sunseri can get it done at the position. The good news is he does get stud flanker Jonathan Baldwin to throw to as a safety blankets. The bad news is their replacing three starters on the O-Line. Stull was only sacked 15 times a year ago, but with inexperience at QB and a reworked line, this number could increase and become troubling. Meanwhile, Utah is totally revamping their secondary with three new starters. They also have three new starters at linebacker, so really the whole back 7 is being rebuiilt. The three projected new starters in the secondary have a combined one total start between them. Two of them didnt play a year ago due to injury. It’s a very green unit. It’s not hard to envision a huge day from Baldwin, who may be checked by Brandon Burton, the only returning starter who had 10 pass break ups a year ago.
Picks? Picks!
What, did you think we were not going to have any official Book It’s this evening? Tsk Tsk, you ought to know better by know. Let’s get the 2010 party rolling…..
Utah -2 over Pitt…….we’re going to take chance with the Utes even though they’re switching from the underdog to favorite roll in a game with a BCS team. Fact is, the Utes are 44-8 straight up at home. They have a rushing attack every bit as good as Pitt’s, a better QB situation, and I just dont think Pitt’s D will be able to handle the different formations, styles and versatility of the Utes offense. I would typically spend a few more and just play the moneyline, but we’re going to try our best to not cop out with that route as often this year. What’s the point of a resolution if you cant make it through the first night. Bottomline: In a coin flip game between Team A and Team B and Team B is coached by the Wanny, then I’m taking Team A everytime.
Northern Illinois +5 over Iowa State……Despite the game’s import, this could still be a look ahead game for ISU with the hated Hawkeyes on deck. And the Clones have often been shaky favorites when stepping down in competition. They’ve lost four games to non BCS foes and have four wins of less than a touchdown in the last five years in non league play. None of those teams had a winning record, except for the FCS squad Northern Iowa. The Northern Illinois Huskies represent a higher end of competition than the Clones have been used to seeing in recent Septembers in these type of games. Meanwhile, Northern has bagged BCS teams in the past. They did beat Purdue a year ago. And in 2003 the beat the Cyclones as part as a magical start to the season that also saw upset wins over Maryland and Alabama with Michael The Burner Turner leading the way. They have also played Wisconsin, Tennessee and Northwestern to the end, albeit in losing efforts in three of the last four non league seasons. So Northern’s players wont come in feeling overmatched. This game will be decided by a field goal in either direction, so I’ll grab the five points and take my chances.
Just two plays tonight. Both for single units. Have fun watching the games and enjoy the new season.
[...] expressed fear already about teams playing in an opposite role than usual, such as this case. I stuck by the side of one of those teams last night with Utah and survived–barely. As for this game, you know [...]