Slayer of Rainbows: USC at Hawai’i

USC is going to beat Hawai’i. It’s not going to be close. In fact, it’s probably going to be insultingly lopsided. In last year’s home opener against Western Kentucky University, then-freshminted Vols coach Lane Kiffin (HAHA SECONDARY VIOLATION KIFFYKINS HAHA) melted the scoreboard en route to a 63-7 decision. He had his starter, Crompton, throwing for touchdowns in the fourth quarter despite being up by thirty-five against a team that had managed a single score in the previous three quarters. Going into his first season with Tennessee with whispers about his competence nearly outshining the band’s rendition of “Rocky Top,” Kiffin looked to have his first result make the skeptics pipe down. (A close loss to UCLA just a bit later made the effort fruitless, and in hindsight, a little cruel). So while there’s already an established history between these two teams—Hawai’i has never once beaten USC, and in fact has never come within four touchdowns of doing so (avg series score: 52-15 USC)—there’s also a clear precedent, when it comes to Kiffin: if it’s September, he will not take his boot off your neck.

The question we pose this game, then, isn’t “Who’s going to win?” Nor ought we wonder, “And by how much?” Since the outcome of this game is competitively irrelevant, with one team looking for style points and another for a paycheck, this preview proposes instead to answer, at length the following question: “Of what—if of anything—can this game serve as an indicator?” While I don’t think it can tell us anything we don’t already know about the relative strengths of either team competing in it, I do think that this matchup can tell us something about each team independently. So, without further ado, what it all means:

Hawai’i defense or lack thereof

Hawai’i fielded one of the worst defenses in the country last year. In nearly every major statistical category—scoring (#90), rushing (#107), total (#91), pass efficiency defense (#7 in the WAC with opponents’ QBs averaging a 144.2 pEFF rating)—it stunk up the joint. Only its #33 passing defense, at 201 yards surrendered per game, looked respectable. Remember, however, that Eastern Michigan had the best statistical pass defense in the country; if you could run on them to the tune of picking up a deuce a game, and you were out ahead by the end of the first quarter, why even bother with a pass? Regardless of how things look for Hawai’i’s defense in general, one ought to be comforted by the return of the entire defensive backfield—including all four positions’ backups. Matt Barkley will undoubtedly shred it before he is taken out of the game, but it will be interesting to see how well this experienced group holds up against him. More interesting, however, will be seeing how the underclassmen backups perform against his replacements, and against the younger receivers who step in after RoJo & co. are put on the pine. Even more compelling will be the degree to which the Trojans’ short passing and running games are responded to by the green linebacking corps. With no returning starters at any of the three LB positions, and both a sophomore and a true freshman in the two-deep, we should see a number of players grow up quite quickly trying to contain things just off the line of scrimmage. I suspect that Paipai Falemalu (16 T, 2 S in 12 spot-duty performances as a substitute DE last year) will come in and emerge as the primary playmaker behind the defensive line, with occasional starter and senior Mana Lolatai locking down the Mac position that has been lacking an enforcer-type to fill it since Solomon Elimimian graduated after 2008. I do not anticipate a steller performance on the day from the LB corps, but I do think that with enough PT to go around, and a chance for the older players to prove themselves against skill players who will be superior to almost all they will conceivably face for the rest of the season, what we WILL get from the LB corps is enough to go on when it comes to determining starting lineups. Defensive propositions: look for the defense to intercept one ball in the second half, to surrender 500 yards of total offense with 225 of them coming on the ground, but to provide its backups at CB, DT, and S with ample playing time after USC’s starters go out.

Double rainbow offense?

As was detailed in a previous post on the WAC race, the offense really told us a tale of two seasons last year. This year, it should at least be more consistent; despite losing the competent Greg Alexander to graduation and injury at the beginning of last year’s conference schedule, one proven playmaker (Greg Salas) did enough for this year’s starting signal-caller, Bryant Moniz (returned from a personal leave of absence over the offseason, and currently holding down the #1 spot), to have gotten through the tough transition to D-I quarterbacking last year. Add to that the fact that he has three senior receivers (and in this offense, the receivers are much more important than the quarterbacks), including last year’s casualty Rodney Bradley, to throw to, and you should be looking at pieces for a strong first-team offense, provided an OL with new full-time starters at every position but LT can make clear what its strengths are against the best defensive line it will play all season. The relevant information we should have by 1:30A: how reliable Bronson Tiwanak is going to be in replacing one of the best WAC centers of the last few years, how solidly the guard play is going to come together, and whether Moniz is going to get the modicum of protection he will need to pick apart weak WAC secondaries. Unfortunately, the information will be encoded—released in the form of penalties, completions for gain, and a solid pocket’s appearance on a play-by-play basis—and much more difficult to make sense of than it would be if it came in the form of yards and points (which it probably won’t). Offensive propositions: look for a touchdown in the first half, and maybe one more in garbage time, expect one or two of the three senior receivers to be done for the day before the fourth quarter begins, hope for fewer than 25 yards of procedural penalties.

The offense you already know

You already know most of the things that there are to be said about USC. So I won’t say them again, and will turn instead to the relevant question: what does the Hawai’i game have to say about USC? Well, it should give us an indication of how a few key position battles stand. Unfortunately, one of the most intriguing of those battles will have to wait until week two to take shape. As Dillon Baxter has been suspended for the opener—possibly because he lied about being illegally recruited by other D-I schools in the aftermath of the NCAA decision, though it’s not clear exactly why he’s out—we won’t be looking at the resolution of the battle for the top spot at RB. However, it IS possible that you’ll get a look at your third-down back; with the lineup in the offensive trenches essentially set (3 upperclassmen at C, RT, and LG; underclassmen with game experience at LT and RG), look for Kiffin to push against the weak UH run defense with some of his bigger boys, and give redoubled emphasis to a ground game which took a slight step back last year (2009’s 44th ranked effort comprised 438 carries for 2,168 yards [167 ypg], compared to 2008’s 504 for 2,543 [#22 nationally; 196 ypg]) and saw four fewer touchdowns scored on the ground than in previous years (24 in 2009, by comparison with 28 in 2008). It is a distinct possibility that Barkley will again be the youngest member of his backfield, with Stanley Havili and Marc Tyler having gotten the nod at FB and RB, respectively. If they play well against Hawai’i, and pick up the kind of consistent yardage it is likely they will be able to, look to see the two of them hold on to their jobs into Minnesota week. They’re experienced, steady, and precisely in the Montario Hardesty mold, and we know Kiffin has shown himself willing to sit heavily recruited true freshmen in favor of the more reliable upperclassmen. At wide receiver, Kyle Prater (another heavily recruited freshman) will be redshirting this year due to injury; an unsettled two-deep at wideout has both a veteran entering his final season (RoJo) and a true freshman (Robert Woods) heading into the Hawai’i game. Remember, though, that with Hawai’i’s secondary being its strong point, there is a chance that this game will mean more for the two-deep at wideout than for any other position group. If Woods is unable to separate from Hawai’i’s tall, speedy cornerbacks, there is the distinct possibility that ANOTHER freshman (Markeith Ambles) makes his debut, or that the older options like Brice Butler (20 catches for 250 yards and a pair of scores, as a backup in 2009) and David Ausberry (returning from an injury suffered six games into last season) step into starting roles. In any event, USC will have an opportunity to have both aspects of its attack settle into place during the season opener; whether the 2010 team is going to skew old or young will likely be intimated by the choices made against Hawai’i. Offensive propositions: look for 200 yards on the ground, and a similar effort through the air in the first three quarters, Mitch Mustain to step in by the 8:00 mark of the third quarter and throw one touchdown and one interception, two turnovers but none by Matt Barkley, and more than 38 points to be scored.

Things could get ugly, maybe

On defense, things are a bit less of a sure thing in a few areas. The front seven will likely be the strength of this defense, as the youngest members of the two-deep are in their third year and are returning contributors (Chris Horton started for much of 2009, even if he was benched, and Nick Perry contributed in all 12 games plus the bowl). Whatever you want to say about Ed Orgeron, he can coach defensive linemen. The line will be fine, and may even take a step forward from last year’s middling effort. Two seniors return at outside linebacker, though one position battle that had long been considered over—that involving the Mike spot—has since reopened, with Chris Galippo (67 tackles in 2009, 32 solo, 1 sack, and a pair each of picks and forced fumbles) apparently having lost his job to the heavily recruited true sophomore Devon Kennard. But if the linebacking corps will be steady, the defensive secondary is going to be where plays have to be made. Hawai’i is a passing team whose big, physical wide receivers respond to pass coverage as they run their routes. You beat them by providing disciplined coverage, cutting off their routes—especially the short and intermediate routes, where their bread is buttered (last year, Hawai’i quarterbacks completed 40 of 68 passes on 3rd and 9 or less, for 563 yards (8.3 yards per attempt), 10 touchdowns, and 1 interception)—and keeping somebody deep. USC starts one senior, two true sophomores, and a true freshman at cornerback, safety, and cornerback, respectively. That is not a recipe for success against an elite passing offense; and if it reasonable to doubt Hawai’i will have an elite passing offense to field in its first game of the season, this will doubtless be the best aerial attack USC sees until it plays Washington in September. Defensive propositions: hope for 3 forced turnovers with at least two interceptions, but expect a disheartening stat sheet for the defensive backs; expect a lot of turnover at the linebacker positions as younger options are tested out in the fourth quarter; expect one defensive score OR a 20+ interception return.

Once again—in 2009 Hawai’i had an awful defense, one of the worst in the country, and played only a pair of BCS-caliber opponents last year: Navy, whose bizarre failure to run on the worst rushing defense they’d played all year is requiring of a “Well, that’s college football for ya!” shrug; and Wisconsin, who melted the scoreboard and wore a path down the middle of the field, from goalpost to goalpost, to the tune of 300 yards on the ground. There exists essentially no chance that the Rainbows win, and almost as slim a chance that they keep it close in the first half.

(USC -21 @ UH: 11PM EST, Thur 2nd September 2010)
WHY TO WATCH: It’s live football, with results that count.
WHAT TO WATCH: The fourth quarter.
WHAT TO BET: USC to cover handily.

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