A Top-25 poll at the beginning of the season is bad for college football. In no other sport does a meritless ranking of teams have such an impact on who wins the championship. The landscape will look much different in October and will undoubtedly shift once again by the time the conference championship games take place. When a “top” team loses it has a better chance to bounce back, many times by virtue of these preseason polls.
On the eve of the college football season, let’s take a look at five teams outside the preseason guesses that will work their way into the Top 25 this season.
Houston- With Houston, you must start with Case Keenum. The Heisman hopeful quarterback led one of the most explosive offenses in the country last season and almost everyone returns. Keenum threw for over 5,600 yards with a completion percentage over 70 last season and will be hitting many of the same targets in 2010. James Cleveland, Tyrone Carrier, and Patrick Edwards may form the best receiving trio in the country. It’s not every year a team returns a 5,000 yard passer and three 1,000 yard receivers. Bryce Beall should carry the load at running back after his counterpart Charles Sims was ruled ineligible this season. The line will replace two, but expect the nation’s top scoring offense from 2009 to keep it going this year.
Houston’s concern, and reason for finding itself outside of the Top 25, is on the opposite side of the ball. 95th in scoring defense a year ago, the unit simply could not stop the run (111th in rush defense). New coordinator Brian Stewart comes from the NFL and will have the charge to be just below average. If he accomplishes that, Houston could be shooting for bigger goals than just finishing in the Top 25. The Cougars travel to Texas Tech and UCLA, play Mississippi State at home, and have a very important Conference USA date at Southern Miss in November. Split those games and it’s almost guaranteed you’ll see Houston in the polls come December.
Navy- Receiving just 12 votes in each poll, the Midshipmen are out to prove they belong. Well, they have proven it over and again recently, winning eight games in each of the last seven seasons. Coach Ken Niumatalolo may have his best team yet, led by another star quarterback, Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs threw for and rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, adding 27 rushing touchdowns. The midshipmen have senior tackles, an experienced fullback and a young playmaker in Gee Gee Greene.
Unlike Houston, Navy doesn’t have a terrible defense, ranking 18th in scoring defense last season. In a 3-4 set, Navy will need to replace three linebackers but three star prospect Vinnie Mauro should help. Mauro had offers from the likes of Wisconsin and Vanderbilt and will be counted on to make an impact this season. Senior safety Wyatt Middleton returns for his fourth year as a starter and will need to continue his playmaking ways. Navy opens with Maryland, travels to Wake Forest, and hosts Notre Dame for their three biggest tests. Honestly, Navy could run the table. Really. More likely, we’re looking at 9-3 or even 10-2, which would mark the first back-to-back ten win seasons in school history.
Texas A&M- The Aggies were 6-7 last season, so a jump to the Top 25 would be a real accomplishment for Mike Sherman and his players. Senior QB Jerrod Johnson will have to be the one to take them there. Johnson was third in the nation in total offense last year, throwing for 30 TDs and just 8 INTs. This behind an offensive line that gave up almost 30 sacks. The O-line will be the only concern on offense, as underclassmen will see a lot of time. Still, Johnson showed last season that he could produce with little time and there is no reason to believe he will change this year with his top targets returning.
Defensively, the Aggies will need to come together under new coordinator Tim DeRuyter who comes in from Air Force. Look out for senior hybrid LB/DE Von Miller. Miller was an All-American last season after leading the nation in sacks. The Aggies have four returning starters in the linebacking corps and should be able to hold running attacks in check. In a pass-happy Big 12, the Aggies will need to see a huge improvement in pass defense. If they execute under DeRuyter, who slowed down Case Keenum in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, Johnson should be able to lead A&M to 8 to 10 wins.
Middle Tennessee- Coming off of a ten win season and a bowl win, MTSU will be looking to repeat this season and will have the players to do it. Quarterback Dwight Dasher returns with a sweet name for a dual threat signal caller and he should get some help from Phillip Tanner and D.D. Kyles at running back. Dasher rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, throwing for almost 3,000. It’s just been announced that Dasher will be benched for the opener against Minnesota, but if he returns the Blue Raiders will be dynamic enough on offense to contend for the Sun Belt title and post another 10 win season.
SMU- June Jones will be entering his third season with SMU and has already turned a program in turmoil into one that won its bowl game last year. The Mustangs return four on the offensive line and almost all of their passing attack returns, including QB Kyle Padron. Padron won the job when the starter went down halfway through last season and never gave it back. SMU struggled against the run last season, so returning most of the front seven in the 3-4 set could be viewed as a positive or negative, but when a team improves from 1-11 to 8-5 you have to like the fact that guys will be entering their third year under the coach. The schedule isn’t easy with games against Texas Tech, TCU, Navy, and Houston, but an upset or two and June Jones will find himself back in the Top 25.
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MICH