If you’re looking for a storyline to track the first weekend of the college football season, how about the arrival of the mid-majors. Boise State starts the year in the top-5, TCU in the top-10. But everyone knows their stories. Their placement in the polls this high may rankle some, but shouldnt be unexpected to anyone who’s been following the game in recent years. Indeed, the polls seem to be priming a clash of the ‘little guys’ for all the marbles in January. Besides, thats not the kind of arrival I am talking about. I’m not even referring to far out Blog Poll ballots with as many as six non-BCS teams in the top-25. (Seriously, I love the Al Golden turnaround at Temple, but 19th? Tell ya what, if they beat Penn State later this month, I’ll give them a vote too). Nope, not even talking about that. I’m talking about the mid-majors arrival at the betting window. They are secrets no more. The best mid-majors might still fight for respect from the crusty old sports writers, bloggers and fans who are loathe to admit anyone from outside the sphere of the big programs can compete at that level. But the fight for respect is complete and victorious at the betting window with the gambling set. These teams are now being installed as chalk against BCS teams in an attempt to even out the action. They’ve mastered the art of hunting as an underdog, but how will they handle the role of hunted favorite? Consider some of these historically lethal underdogs against the power conferences who are favorites in critical non league games to open the season this weekend:
What do you mean we're favored? I cant motivate under those circumstances. Seriously, did you see the last two New Mexico Bowls? This is UNACCEPTABLE!!!
Pitt +2.5 at Utah (Thursday)…..this is the 12th time the Utes have been chalk against a BCS team since 1999, compared to the 18 times they’ve been catching points during the same time frame. Their results in those roles are stark contrasts. As chalk, they lose you money with an average 6-6 record. As pups, they’ve been big moneymakers going 14-4. While the instances of being favorites and underdogs appearas close to balanced as any mid-major could expect, a distinction needs to be made that does illustrate how rare this spot is for Utah in this match. Most of the BCS teams they’ve been chalk against have been terrible. Four times against brutal Arizona teams that eventually won 4, 5, 3 and 3 games in those seasons. There were 2000 games against 3-win Cal and 4-win Wassau clubs, 2002 vs 3-win Indiana and 4-win Louisville a year ago. Of the four other times, three took place during that monster 2004 season, Urban Meyer’s killer 13-0 squad that proved to be a cover machine, including a 4-TD rout over this Pitt program in the Feista Bowl as 15-point chalk. I cant find record of the Utes ever being chalk against a BCS team ranked in the top-25. The Panthers check in at 15th in both polls, while the Utes only qualified for the coach’s poll, sneaking in at 23rd. We’re that close that having an unranked mid-major team favored over a ranked team from a BCS league. According to the AP, we do have such an occurence. I might have to get the JCB research team working OT to find out if such an event has even happened before. This is a pretty big game on Thursday night. Both teams have BCS expectations. The loser suffers a serious blow in that charge, more so if its Utah. And in Dion Lewis for Pitt you have a legit Heisman candidate. Both teams aspire to validate preseason expectations. I’m surprised the game isnt getting more buzz, especially since its the main event on the season’s opening night. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact the game is on Versus and not an ESPN channel? Nah, no way.
UW +3 at BYU……..No surprise that a program as stellar as BYU is a home favorite against a team with second division Pac 1o finishes five years in a row. But the Cougars are replacing a program all-timer at the QB position. And the Huskies bring to the table at that position the presumptive 2011 NFL top pick. And the betting public still likes the Cougars to win. Some would find that telling. The storyline here is obvious: a rematch of the game two years ago that Locker and Huskies lost in the final seconds after picking up a celebration foul after a late TD, causing a longer than usual PAT to tie the game, which was subsquently blocked. I’m interested in seeing if this Cougar train continues to chug without Max Hall.
TCU -13.5 vs Oregon State (Arlington, Jerry Dome)……..I cant believe the line is this big. Oregon State has been on the
Oregon State and Jacquizz Rodgers are the BCS Buster in this one, not TCU
losing end of battles with upstart midmajors. They’ve been bushwacked in Boise twice in the last decade. But two years ago, they took BCS-bound Utah down to the wire as double digit underdogs before losing in the end. Jacquiiz and James Rodgers powered the Beavers that night and they’re still what drives the OSU offense these days. They should be able to hang within this number, right? This is the #3 Pac 10 program in the Pac 10 the last decade, surely they can stay better than two touchdowns on a nuetral site with one of the better Mountain West teams, right? It may look like a December bowl game, but there’s a lot at stake, when these two ranked teams play Saturday night. Perhaps this line is an overreacting to the lingering and lasting memories of the last Beaver football game, a woodshedding at the hands of BYU in last year’s Las Vegas role. Maybe it public doubt in the Beavers in the wake of an injury-filled camp that got lost in the shuffle of last week’s infamous linemen gone tasered incident. Or its new strategy by the oddsmakers in an attempt to make TCU as little attractive as possible for bettors. Did you know they’re 27-17-2 ATS as chalk since joining the MWC in 2005, including 15-5 the last 2 regular seasons. Get used to more expensive prices on the Horned Frogs as oddsmakers attempt to stem the tide of TCU money this fall. Of course, a lot of those games came again MWC teams. This is only the 10th time since 1999 that the Horns have been chalk to a BCS team. Only two of those teams, 2000 Northwestern and 2006 Iowa State, were teams that went on to a winning record. That ISU contest was actually a bowl game. So a regular season game with TCU chalk against a perennial bowl program from a BCS league is a rare sight. And in this one, not only is TCU favored against a BCS Bowl contender from a big-6 league, but they’re heavy chalk to boot. This is one of the premier games of opening weekend and is being played in the Jerry Dome.
Cincy +2 at Fresno…..Cincy has been to consecutive BCS bowl games. Fresno State is just 13-11 in the last two seasons. So naturally the Bulldogs are the favorite in this season lid lifter, right? Makes perfect sense. Its no surprise to see Fresno taking on an upperclass team from a BCS league. They do it every year. It is a suprise to see them as chalk. In its broad resume of playing anyone, anywhere, anytime, this will only be the fourth time in Patt Hill’s tenure they’ve been chalk against a team from one of the big six leagues. They’ve been an underdog against BCS foes 30 different times during Hill’s tenure, covering almost 80 percent of those games.
Maryland +7 at Navy (Monday)……When these reluctant rivals meet one week from now, it will be only the tenth time the Midshipmen will be chalk against a BCS foe this decade. All the other nine times, they’ve played either Vanderbilt, Duke or Rutgers, the matchups against the later all taking place before the Knights finally broke their streak of losing records. So, congrats Terp fans for entering such fine company. The Ralph Freidgen era has apparently come full cirlce and its the Ron Vanderlinden times all over again. Should these Crab Cake neighbors play every year? They havent played since the 2005 season opener, a tight 3-point Terp win. Navy was catching 12.5 points that day, but are 7-point chalk in this one. Hey, the times have changed. Navy is an excellent team. QB Reggie Dobbs will put up Heisman caliber numbers. They’re talking double digit win season in Annapolis. Navy is 4-5 ATS in those nine instances as chalk against a BCS team, but its hard not to think they’ll at least get the straight up win over the Terps.
Boise -3 vs Va Tech (Monday, Wash DC)……We’ve seen Boise as chalk against Oregon and Oregon State, the top two Pac-10 programs this decade after USC. So its not a total shock to see them the favorites in this contest. Those games against the Emerald Staters, however, took place on the blue carpet in front of a stadium full of orange. This is a nuetral site game on the other side of the country against a team thats been pretty darn close to elite for the better part of the last 15 years. A win puts the Boise nightmare one step closer to reality. In their BCS bowl games and other headlining bowl appearances against top flight teams, the Broncos have been catching points, up to a touchdown or more. Now, however, they’re favored in the latest incarnation of the program’s biggest game in its history. It seems like everybody I ask to guess the line on this game, most people say -3, but the other way. That said, Boise has 20 returning starters from a BCS bowl championship season. Put them in Alabama or Ohio State jerseys and they’d be the resounding preseason pick atop the polls. This not just BIG GAME for WEEKEND, but also WHOLE SEASON. The early season talking points cant really take shape until this one is in the books next Monday night.
None of this is very revealing. But it tosses the proverbial monkey wrench into what I expected to be my opening weekend plans. All of these teams are among my personal favorites. Well, for the most part. I dont have much experience betting TCU or BYU. But, the other four find their way onto my weekend ticket regularily. So much so that when asked about my strategy coming into any season, I say the first thing I do is look up Fresno State’s schedule and memorize the dates when they’re playing big name teams. I dont care how many points they’re getting, I’m buying in those game. They’re 23-6-1 ATS as a dog against BCS foes in the years since I’ve been picking games. I repeat the process, doing the same for Utah. I have their non conference schedules memorized by mid-summer and marked as a reminder in my blackberry just in case I get caught up in the season so I wont lose track of it. Ok, maybe one of those statements isnt true. I’ll let you figure out which one. Regardless winning weekend tickets in September, November and December have been anchored by one of these teams as a feisty underdog. Other pillars of my strategy include tracking Navy, playing them maybe a 5-6 times a season when the situation presents itself, and hitting on some Boise action when the Broncos are playing at home, regardless of line and in any big game they play, provided they’re not super chalky.
When I purchased my Phil Steele mag waaaaay baaaaaack in June, I was ecstatic as I began to piece together the opening weekend’s schedule. My favorite mid-majors taking on the ‘big guys’ would all be in action. Utah, Fresno, Navy and Boise, from Thursday to Monday, giving me investment opportunities throughout the weekend. Finding out that all my favorite pupsters are in fact chewy chalk this week is some cold water in the face. Consider the roll slowed. Two months ago, I would have assumed I would have been on all four of those teams. Now I dont know. These programs have been great against this caliber of competition as underdogs. Does it really matter if they’re favored, especially with three of them favored by a field goal or less. That’s basically a coin flip situation. However, Navy is the only one I know is better than the team on the other sideline. The others appear to be pretty even games. Utah and Fresno at least are at home. I dreamed most of the summer of these four producting a winning record against the spread opening weekend. But, I figured all would be underdogs. Are my chances at a winning record with these four really all that different with them all favored?
These are the questions I am pondering this morning.
Let the season begin.
I nearly fell out of my chair last night when I saw the TCU v. OSU line. 13.5 points?!?!? That's crazy.
I was also pretty surprised to see Fresno favored against UC. I know UC will take a step back from last year's 12-0 regular season without Kelly, but I still think they have a good chance of winning this game SU.
I'm curious about your take on Wisconsin as a 21 pt favorite over UNLV in Sin City. Wiscy has played a few MWC/WAC teams out West in the past and looked pretty sluggish IIRC.
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