Big 10 Over/Under: Michigan’s Offense

If given the keys to the sportsbook, I’d set over/under on statistic totals all over college football. Consider this post a series debut of a feature I”ll run throughout the rest of August detailing the  over/under games I’d throw out there for public consumption. Our subjects will mostly come from the Big 10, beginning today with the games available for Michigan’s offense. Place yer bets! We dont have any JCBPoints to risk. If you must play with stakes, we could let it ride on the combined sips from the final cases of Zima I have stocked in the bar downstairs. Otherwise, these are for amusement purposes only. Also: it’s worth nothing, practices begin within the week and college football games kickoff next month. We’re so close, you can’t really call it the off season anymore.

Total Touchdowns, Quarterbacks:  O/U 30.5

Can Tate and Shoelace break the 30 TD barrier in their sophomore seasons?

I wrote in Hail To The Victors  that Michigan would get more than 30 total touchdowns from the QB position this year.  To put that in perspective, that’s more TDs than the QB position generated statistically during five of  the seven Navarre/Henne years from 2001-2007. Putting it in those terms, I think skepticsm hits a lot of folks whether or not any combination of Forcier and Robinson can hit such a high number. But dont forget these guys combined for 23 scores a year ago, which isnt far off from the high water mark in the eight years prior were back to back seasons of 27 scores in ’03 and ’04. Shouldn’t the natural progression of using a pair of experienced sophomores instead of true freshmen create enough of a scoring leap to put 30 total touchdowns in the rear view mirror? I’d like to think so. My fellow Wolverine fans, we’d better hope so. I think Michigan will need more than 30 scores from their QBs to have a winning record and get back into the postseason. If this goes under, I don’t think Michigan will be scoring enough to win consistently. If this goes under, I don’t think Rodriguez will keep his job. And, no, that’s not hyperbolic rhetoric spewed on purpose to incite the ‘rah-rah’ part of the fanbase into grabbing the over out of sheer partisan sake and even out the action against a mass audience willing to bet against anything involving Michigan. No way. Not at all. Do you really think that’s my style? I wont lie, I’m a little hurt by the accusation.

Drew Dileo, Total Combined Punt/Kick Returns: O/U 1.5

Whenever the ball is in the air, Michigan fans have grown accustomed to expect the worst. Whether its an abysmal pass defense that gives up big plays like it’s their job, a gross amount of interceptions the last two seasons or the disappearance of any skill fielding a punt, when the ball is in the air, its spelled trouble for Michigan lately. Could Drew Dileo come to the resuce, at least with the latter problem? He’s a jack-of-all-trades, 3-star recruit who played small school Louisiana football. He’s a midget recruit that Rodriguez unfairly, or at least prematurely, gets mocked for.  There were plenty of unhappy natives when this incoming freshmen verbally comitted in the spring of 2009.  Another season later of choas fielding punts, however, and there’s probably enough in that same MGoChorus willing to bite and embrace Dileo stepping right in as a kick fielding specialist. Odoms and Hemingway both have had good moments and major issues with this skill. Do either iron out the problems and become consistent? Can either stay healthy for the season? If a new face emerges, conventional wisdom fingers Jeremey Gallon or even a guy like Terrance Robinson. But I thought back when Dileo commited 15 months ago that he might have been the best punt fielder on the team had he been on the roster at the time. A month out from the 2010 opener, I still feel there’s a better than average chance that’s the case. What if Dileo steps up in August and becomes a summer legend by catching everything possible kicked his way? He could put himself right out on the field. His coach is someone who was wooed one summer into starting Nick Sheridan. Headed into this August, you know he’s probably willing to buy into anybody who even shows practice efficiency in this skill. Dileo arrives on campus as a specialist in that regard. Why not him? The kid allegedly is a lock for a redshirt, but when your specialty is something the team hasnt been able to do since the head coach arrived, your chances of seeing the field arent as long as you think.

Receivers (And Others)  Exceeding Career Numbers In Catches This Single Season: O/U 5.5

Michigan has a lot of talent catching the football. They finally will have a competent, experienced quarterback throwing to them. Most of them have labored as overmatched underclassmen with less the optimal conditions surrounding them on their own team. Now they’re entering their uppclassmen years. They and their surrounding cast are beginning to entrench themselves into the upper half of the league. The numbers haven’t been pretty the last two years as far as top receivers go, but it’s not hard to imagine that changing as this offense continues to find its groove. I feel that Michigan has a chance to see several of their receivers catch as many balls this year as they have caught so far during their entire careers.  Here are the career numbers for the guys at the top of the depth chart at various pass catching positions: Martavious Odoms, 71; Roy Roundtree, 32; Darryl Stonum, 27; Junior Hemingway, 22; and Kevin Koger, 22. Obviously, Odoms will have a tough time pulling off this feat. But the quartet of Stonum, Hemingway, Koger and Roundtree all have excellent chances if they lock down starting spots this summer, stay healthy and play all 12 games. 

Can Darryl Stonum grab 28 balls this year, surpassing his current career total?

 Why is the total set at 5.5? Let’s go through the thought process. Everyone will put Roundtree on the list. If he doesnt have more than 32 catches this year, we can assume that something has gone wrong, correct? So that’s one. Among the other three, I think it’s beyond reasonable to see one of them pull the feat. I think it’s probably slightly less than 50/50 that two will. Expecting all three just sounds like unlikely, across-the-board improvements. It’s a decision between 1 and 2. We’ll split the difference at 1.5, giving us 2.5. As for the other three, dont forget the other assortment of possible weapons that may pull the feat under a much smaller bar. Guys like Martell Webb (4), Jeron Stokes (2), Terrance Robinson (1), and Brendan Moore (1) are all eligble. Dont forget about Kelvin Grady (10) or any of the running backs like Vincent Smith (10), Mike Shaw (8) and Mike Cox (1). Some of these guys could emerge this year as legit weapons. Lacking that, some could soar past those small numbers with a big showing in the Bowling Green and UMass games to close September. I’d say three from this group is reasonable giving us 5.5. We’ll exclude all incoming freshmen from this game, as well as any redshirt freshmen with zero career catches and really anyone else without a career catch to date.  Quarterbacks catching passes do not count. Unless its Jack Kennedy. We’ll be a benevolent book there. 

 I know there’s a school of thought that Denard Robinson will assert himself and take over the QB position. If that happens, wont running and running and running and then more running become the focus of the Wolverines, eliminating the stat sheet stuffing chances of the wideouts? Those final teams Rodriguez had in Morgantown werent known for people collecting catches, after all. I dont know about that. For one, I think Rodriguez has a lot more overall talent at WR and TE than he had at West Virginia,  and he’s a good enough innovator where he’ll know how to use them now that they’re ready for wear. He also has less talent at RB than he had at Morgantown as right now they’re isnt anything close to a Steve Slaton, Noel Devine or even an Owen Schmitt in the rotation to demand carries. The team will still get heavy contributions from a Tate Forcier led offense. And even the extended doses of Denard Robinson will only come if he he’s effective moving the ball through the air. Or if he’s so dominant just running, which I guess I’ll happily accept even if it means losing to the under here.  One thing worth noting, however, during the four seasons of the Pat White, mostly Rodriguez-led era in Morgantown, the #2 and #3 pass catchers on those teams (with the exception of #3 in 2005) would put Koger, Stonum and Hemingway right on the money or better, not to mention Smith,  Cox or  Shaw if we want to project a back being in the top-3 in catches for Michigan. There’s more than enough room, even in an offense more and more focused on The Denarding, for a 50-catch guys and 2-3 in the 30 range. Toss in the occassional, yet somewhat expected contributions from Stokes and T-Rob, combined with either Webb or Moore becoming a somewhat used second TE option or more than one of those tailbacks hitting the mark and you have your over.  I dont think this going over is as crazy as it sounds.

Michigan’s Leading Rusher, O/U 825 yards

I know I’ll get plenty of under bets from the cadre of Michigan haters/doubters/opponents who are convinced that Michigan has turned into some kind of permanent cellar dwellers. Case in point is this Rivalry Esquire post. The blogger lists his top 20 predictions for the upcoming year and, in one of them, he predicts Michigan will win 8 games. At least. Well at last check, there were close to 225 comments and half of them shred him for even comprehending a good season out of Michigan. If there were any comments supporting and agreeing with his cause on that one, I must have skimmed over it because I didnt see any.  Considering the Wolverines leading rusher the last two years gained 563 and 523 yards respectively, I am sure we can get more than enough action from that crowd on any under bet this high on the team’s leading rusher. Where are we getting the Over action? From a wide array of folks, of course. Some folks are convinced Vincent Smith is the Mike Hart 3-star we’ve been looking for. There is a group who feel Denard will emerge as a dominant zone read runner and surge for over a grand on the ground. Even if cant,  there’s the demographic that believes Michael Shaw might be the perfect Shoelace compliment at tailback, ensuring a big season from the third-year back out of Trotwood-Madison. Some have talked themselves into a redshirt freshmen season out of Fiztgerald Toussiant similar to LaMichael James a year ago for Oregon. The leaders of the Steven Hopkins, Big 10 Freshmen of the Year campaign will likely chip in some. There is probably even a sucker or two out there who will play thinking that Dee Hart is the man. And then there are a group of folks, perhaps in denial, who can not fathom a third season without a 1,000 yard rusher for their beloved Michigan. Let alone 825 yards. Color me in that last group. It’s one of the few Michigan football entitlements I’m still clinging too. I’ve said before that I like the quantity and quality of the options the coaches have. Its just as hard to think that a Rodriguez lead team would go a third year without someone hitting the 1,000 mark, let alone this figure. Somebody will emerge and the program will finally get 12 games out of somebody that resembles a featured back right? Please say I am right. Also: I flirt, sometimes heavily, with that Denard crowd.  But mostly I am a drunk partisan with the over here. Between us all, there’s enough on both sides of this issue.

O/U Turnover Margin, Better/Worse -6.5

We’re changing the game to better or worse to avoid any semantic quagmires that may come with playing an over/under game with negative integers. Minus-6.5 seems awfully bad, but it would be  a significant improvement for Michigan. Year 3 of Rodriguez, Now With 50 Percent Less Turnover Margin!! Hey, after a -10 in 2008 and a -12 in 2009, it’s the truth should even if this lowly number get threatened. Michigan might still have sloppiness issues. All of the options at running back will be seeing their first legit fulltime action. Being sophomore quarterbacks hardly make you perfect quarterbacks. And, well, there are those punt returns.  Dont forget the other side of the ball. Michigan could not turn you over. If this year’s defense gives up the same amount of yards, but finds a way to force more turnovers, enough about that unit will improve to make this a winning team. But who are the playmakers going to be to force those turnovers? That’s really a question for the defensive over/under part of this series. That’s your homework in advance of that. Usually the teams who put up a double digit turnover margin improve their record the following year. Michigan actually did that from 2008 to 2009.  No reason to think they wont do so again this year. If they can actuall improve the TO margin as well, then the team might be cooking. I’d expect a bowl bid if this number gets shaved to -6. But I’ll spend the rest of the summer day dreaming of a world with a Michigan positive turnover margin. It’s a beautiful world. Hopefully we’ll get to visit soon.

I might come up with a few more tailored for individual offensive players. The JCB brain power may also want to consider odds on individual receivers hitting their career marks in addition to the total play. And, of course, there will be a defensive board. That ought to be fun. I’ll also try to hit every other Big 10 team at least once.

So, which way would you go on the above? Over or Under?

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