Monthly Archives: July 2010

Big 10 Out Of Conference Games: Thursday Night Specials.

July 16, 2010
By

The season’s opening Thursday night, which incidentally is a mere seven weeks from last night, brings a distinct Big 10 flavor to it this year with two of the league’s teams playing games on ESPNU and the Big Ten Network. Both teams play mid-majors coming off good, bowl winning seasons. Is that the aroma of an upset swirling in the air along with the summer barbecue tailgate?

Not in Columbus for the Marshall/OSU game. The Thundering Herd come to town after their first winning bowl season in six years,  but I dont think this game will competitive. Yes, the Bucks have struggled to put away teams like Ohio, Akron, Bowling Green and Troy in recent seasons in the Shoe. Even back in 2004, OSU needed a 50-yard field goal bomb at the buzzer to get by this Marshall program.  But those games were noon kickoffs, in front of a partially snoozing home crowd. For the opener, under the lights, I think the Shoe will be in full throat and the Bucks respond with a rout.

If OSU has any trouble at all with early season rust, they’ll still be able to dial up a big play virtually every other possession to pull away. I’m sensing a couple long scoring plays to Devar Posey will take this game from typical Tressel Ball script to blowout during the second quarter. As for Marshall, in their 12 games against BCS competition, the Herd have only been closer than 16 points on one occassion–a 2-point loss to a 5-win Kansas State team in 2005. Last year, they lost 52-10 to Virginia Tech and 24-7 to West Virginia. This game will fall somewhere between those margins. I think its closer to the the former in a 38-16 win.

Michigan fans should take note of this game and embrace some reality. This is also your future. If the Buckeyes can stoop to a Thurday night game, on the Big 10 Network no less, then so can Michigan. Now that Michigan has bit the bullet on night games with their first under the lights in 2011 against Notre Dame, isnt a Thursday night special at some point a given? It’s an average, at best,  non conference home slate in 2012, why not move the opener against San Diego State to that first Thursday night? I am sure the thought of this notion will embarass the Michigan Man to shame and cause message board outrage regarding cheapening of the brand, but, frankly, its what a good conference partner does. OSU is doing their share to raise the value of the BTN with a Thursday night game. Michigan ought to follow suit now that they’ve greenlighted night games.  As a season ticket holder myself, I wouldnt mind this one bit, especially for the opener. Play the game Thursday night, then relax the rest of Labor Day weekend and watch the remaining opening weeekend schedule. I really dont see a problem with this, but I am sure there will be loud outrage at the suggestion.

Getting back to the Thursday night openers this season, we do have one Big 10 team that is on legit upset alert when Minnesota travels down to Mufreesboro to play the Middle Tennessee Racers. The Racers won ten games a year ago and have virtually every piece of their offensive puzzle back that dropped 42 points on Southern Miss in the bowl game. The headliner is Dwight Dasher who accumulated 36 total touchdowns and nearly 4,000 total yards in offense. He was the leading rusher for the team. He alone might have the PLAY4BREW twitter feed shaking in fear.

Stopping Dasher will be PLAY4BREW's top priority

Read more »

Back Problems? Is There A Remedy?

July 15, 2010
By

It happened to the United States in every match of their World Cup campaign; the opponent would break through the middle of the US defense and punish the Yanks early. Only once did the United States avoid an early deficit, when Algeria’s chance in the 6th minute blasted off the crossbar. Early goals came one after another: England in the 4th minute, Slovenia in the 13th, Ghana in the 5th minute as well as in the 3rd minute of extra time.

The back line was the most troubling part of the US team in the tournament and it’s hard to say whether the fact that they’ll have to replace many of the defenders for 2014 with inexperience is necessarily a bad thing. The midfield was outstanding and will likely continue to be the strong point of the team with stars returning and young players emerging. Striker is a concern for many, but Jozy Altidore will be 24 when the next World Cup rolls around and ready to make his mark on US Soccer. He has the talent and I have every confidence he will be the answer up top. It’s important to find someone to pair with Jozy too, but with the combination of glaring inadequacy and a mass exodus of experience on the back line, a “Fullbacks Wanted” flyer should be in the works. Let’s take a look at who’s available to shed the matador style the US fullbacks adopted early in World Cup matches in South Africa.

Even though it will be exciting (hopefully) to take a look at some new names, not all of the familiar ones can be ruled out of the next World Cup. Jay DeMerit and Steve Cherundolo are the two fullbacks least likely to return. DeMerit will be 34 and Cherundolo 35 when 2014 rolls around and that’s probably too old to compete at the level necessary to be successful. Captain Carlos Bocanegra is 31, but his leadership and smarts could see him in a reserve role in four years. That being said, if any of these guys are seeing significant minutes in 2014, Tim Howard is going to be busy. I wouldn’t count on Clarence Goodson to make much of an impact either. He will only be 32 for the Cup in Rio, but he’s 28 and couldn’t earn time over an injured Onyewu in this World Cup. His size is helpful on set pieces, but it’s just too late.

Three names you can expect to be in the mix from this year’s squad are Onyewu and the two Jonathans–Spector and Bornstein. Gooch was a regular in the starting lineup before his injury and before that was coming around on the mental aspect of his game, which was the ball and chain to his physical skill. Spector did not see playing time due to a poor showing in the tune-ups, but at 24 has plenty of room to improve. Bornstein showed well in the World Cup and at 25 should be able to up his game with some experience and a couple trips to the weight room. Bornstein is a Bradley favorite, but even if Bob is relieved of his post, the puddle-depth of the outside back position bodes well for Johnny. Be aware of Heath Pearce and Chad Marshall, as they were among the last cuts for the final roster.

Richard Simmons wouldn’t blame you for being unenthusiastic at this point. Onyewu is the only name that inspires any kind of confidence and he’s got major questions himself. Even the other probables seem to offer little improvement, if they are an improvement at all. The fact is, the United States has to get better at identifying and developing talent. How are stars developed? Taking a look at two international stars seems like an informative start.

Carles Puyol and Philipp Lahm would make the first 11 on any team in the world. Puyol, a Spanish international, joined FC Barcelona’s youth program at 17 as a striker and was quickly moved to a defensive midfield position, then to the back line. By 19 he was moved to the reserves squad and was with Barcelona’s first team at 21, earning his first international cap for Spain at 22. Lahm was identified by Bayern Munich’s youth program at age 11. He moved up through their system and aside from a loan to another Bundesliga club for a couple of years has been involved with Bayern to date. Lahm made his international debut at 20 and at 26 just finished up a successful World Cup on the wing for the Germans. Why can’t the US do this? First of all, the youth programs are much more developed in Europe. Even Puyol’s case wasn’t ideal, as you can see Lahm got started with Bayern Munich before he could even grow that gross junior high moustache. Read more »

Big 10 Out Of Conference Games: Week One, Part Two

July 14, 2010
By

Our ongoing look at the critical out of conference games for the Big 10 continues with three sneak peaks of matchups on opening day. We’ll have more breakdowns of these games throughout the sumer. All lines are from the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas. Yesterday we started this series off with a look at the Missouri-Illinois game. The next post will wrap up Week One before turning our sights on the rest of the non-league schedule.

A NEW SCHEMATIC ADVANTAGE

Purde at Notre Dame, 3:30, 9/4. Line, ND -10

A great piece of series trivia from the folks at Hammer and Rails. Its the first time these northwest Indiana rivals played in the season opener since christening the grand opening of the Hoosier Dome nearly a generation ago.  I also tend to agree that his might be one of the more interesting games they’ve ever had in this long-running series. It’s the start of the Brian Kelly era in South Bend. How will their QB play look? Is Schematic Advantage going to be replaced by we’ll win more than one title as the meme from the coach’s lips that ND fans will rue? More importanly, how will they look defensively? As for the Boilers, they might be a Big 10 darkhorse. They did go 4-4 in league play last season, but out of conference, heartbreaking defeats to Notre Dame, Northern Illinois and Oregon buried them in September, conspiring to keep them out of a bowl game. Can they maintain that momentum, despite a change at the QB position? Can Robert Marve, the transer from Miami, step in and have an impact? Will the Boilers continue to self destruct their way to losses? With some better ball security and a couple of breaks, they could have won nine games a year ago. This is one of the biggest wildcards in the Big 10, and they are very, very close to breaking through. We’ll find out right away what kind of game they have. My gut instinst tells me that, even on the road, a 10-point head start is too much to give the Boilers in this one.

THE NIGHT THE LIGHTS WENT OUT

Wisconsin at UNLV, 11:00, 9/4. Line, Wisco -23

Why is this game even on the Games of the Year board? Maybe its because the oddsmakers have both a good memory and sense of humor. Remember what happened last time these two teams played out west in Sam Boyd Stadium in the shadow of the Strip? Hard to believe its been eight years since the night the lights went out at the Boyd causing an early stoppage in the Badgers/Rebels game and a host of conspiracy theories in the process. The smoke to the suspicious fire? The game was stopped with a little more than seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter, but Vegas sportsbooks only count games as official unless it passes the 5:00 mark on the final stanza clock. The Badgers were up 27-7, with the ball, and crushing the -7 line.  Of course, nobody with a Badger ticket—or any ticket for that matter—got to cash in. Since the game never reached the official point, sportsbooks in Sin City invalidated everyone’s bets. Refunds all around, so nobody lost money, but speculation has always ran rampant that some shadiness took place to kill the lights as the caravan of Badger fans arriving into Vegas put so much money on their local 11 that it boosted the line from 3-4 points to a full touchdown by game night.  The Books were minutes away from having to fork over a lot of cash to imported Cheeseheads. But, then the lights went out and it was as if nobody even placed a bet on the game. Now, I don’t buy conspiracy theorists’ games, and, in this case, there is plausible evidence that the Book would have covered their losses with the Under hitting that night—the same wave of betting that pushed the line up to 7-points also elevated the Over from an opening 54 to a closing 58. But, I wonder just how many people out there will see this game on the board, flash back to that August night opening the 2002 season, shake their head in disgust and refuse to bet this game on principle.

 Are the Badgers getting too much preseason hype? Expectations are sky high for the upcoming season. And why not with virtually everyone back from an offense that was the Big 10′s best statistically a year ago and enough experienced holdovers on defense to create another, typically solid Badger stop unit. Oddsmakers dont expect the Badgers to be tested much in this one. Wisconsin is heavy chalk laying close to three tounchdowns and a field goal. The goal that first Saturday of the season is at least stay even with the picks and not get in an early hole to feel compelled to throw a late night chaser on the board in this one. My Labor Day weekend will be a failure if I find myself laying or taking this boatload of points in an attempt to cover losses from earlier in the day. Read more »

Big 10 Out Of Conference Games: Missouri vs Illinois

July 13, 2010
By

So did you like all that soccer? I did. But in the process this blog largely skipped out on what is usually a red letter day on the summer schedule as we grind our way throught the long, mundane college football season. College football lines were released during our heavy flirtation with futbol and the World Cup. We havent blogged a word about that here at the JCB. That changes today. Over the next couple of weeks, we’re going to focus on some games that the oddsmakers have already put a price on and talk about what we like, dislike and what to look for in those games. This will be Big 10 heavy and at the start we’re going to hone in on the notable out of conference games being by played by the league’s teams. We intended on going week by week, but we’ve changed gears and instead are going to get the feature started on a game by game basis. We start off with a look at this year’s battle in St. Louis between rivals Illinois and Missouri. Also: Unless otherwise noted, the lines provided for these games come from the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas. Double Also: Dont mistake anything in these writeups as actual picks. We’re a long way from comitting to either side on most games, this is just a fun exercise and something to talk about while it’s still July. With that said, let’s dive right into some football talk, JCB-style.

Missouri -10 vs Illinois, 12:30, 9/4 (game in St. Louis)

Oddsmakers hoodwinked folks on this one last year. It’s the reason why I am leading off with this game.  Released as part of the games of the year board last June, the line opened with the Illini a slight, yet teasing 2.5-point favorite.  It proved too tantalizing for a boatload of victims people.  I love how by the fifth comment in that thread posters are mocking the line, asking what the max bet is. People piled on throughout that thread and, in real life, the dough on the Illini’s side all summer long. The line grew the entire off season before settling in at Illinois -7 on game day. The Book led people into their Illini trap all summer and the claws came down hard when Missouri thrashed Illinois 37-9 to open the season. Another Illinois-Missouri game, another Tiger win. And, a big payday out of the gates for the oddsmakers. They probably made their season before the first weekend was even over. I’m glad I was nowhere near it. Hey, I’ve had my thing of sure things go awry, so I lend an empathetic ear to everyone out there.

Bookies everywhere probably sang the Mizzou fight song right along with the players after last year’s payday rout:

Read more »

WORLD CUP FINAL SHOWDOWN: THE NETHERLANDS VS THE SPAIN

July 9, 2010
By

Sunday brings us the final match of the 2010 World Cup, a contest between The Netherlands and Spain to decide which nation is the raddest on all of Spaceship Earth. I’m no history buff, and I usually recoil at the mere hint of hyperbole, but I feel comfortable proclaiming to the e-masses this is probably The Most Important Thing That Has Ever Happened. Especially once you consider how scientists are universally predicting the world will end in 2012, you see can this game will probably be humanity’s last hurrah, unless Michigan can find a way to knock off Ohio State sometime in the next eighteen months (I know, right?).

But seriously, this is gonna be great. Here we have the undisputed Two Best Soccer Playing Nations That Have Never Won A World Cup, or however Alexei Lalas is gonna repeatedly phrase it. Two powers from the Old Continent, 90 minutes from immortality, an immortality sure to rendered meaningless by the impending apocalypse, but whatever, I imagine you’d still want to win.

What I’m trying to say here is, you should watch this game. There’s not going to be anything else on TV, anyway. Unless AMC is doing another Mad Men marathon. In which case, you should DVR the Jet Set episode if they show it. I love that one.

Anyway, you’re going to watch the game. Now I’m going to tell you what I think will happen, and you should listen to me because my predictions are sometimes correct, like the time I said France is my dark horse team, and I have a password to this site now, and you’ve come this far so why not?

First, we playbill. Let’s meet our cast of characters, complete with a highly scientific 0-10 Scale of Radness. Please forgive me if I seem overly generous in my grades, but this matchup features some of the raddest players from prestigious clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, and Inter Milan, not to mention the best goalie in the world and a host of rad dudes from Barcelona. Here’s a look at the players, sector by sector.

Dutch Forwards  Read more »