Monthly Archives: July 2010

Ohio State-Miami: Top Recruiting Hauls Meet In Columbus

July 26, 2010
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(Week 2 is a showdown weekend across the college football landscape, including several big non-league clashes for the Big 10. We continue our series of sneak peaks at the league’s out of conference games with a little July perspective on the big one that day in Columbus between the Buckeyes and Hurricanes. Previous installments of the series can be found here. )

Everyone remembers the last time Miami and Ohio State met on the football field. The Buckeyes beat Miami in the 2003 BCS National Title Game. Maurice Clarett, to this day,  is still keeping himself in high stead with the cigarettes by regaling his tales and legends from this contest during motivational speeches he gives the various cellblocks as part of his prison job. One of the most popular: Justifiable Assault: The Story Of Cie Grant And Ken Dorsey. Even the most novice inmate lawyer knows there’s a justifable defense in there somewhere, but it’s still such a cool story that it’s easily the heaviest attended of his speeches. So much so that the Ohio Corrections Department actually receives a state grant for extra security and they bus in convicts from state pens across the Buckeye state to hear his words. Clarett would rather recite some of his personal favorite bits, lincluding Real World Applications: What I Learned From The Canes;  From Wine Coolers To Goose, Going Hardcore In 6 Easy Steps; and I’m Taking My Talents To Stuebenville,  but some of those are just too dry and clinical, more for the convention scene. Besides, Mo-C is all about the fans, so he gives them what they want.

How many people, though, remember their other most recent head-to-head matchup? Does the 1999 season opener ring any bells?  It was played in the now defunct Kickoff Classic game that, along with the Pigskin Classic, broke the seal on the new season a week before the first scheduled week of fulltime action. An August oasis of football, so close to the finishing line of the dry off season. What a perfect idea. The Kickoff Classic was always played in Meadowlands in the shadow of New York City. Armed with your favorite underneath a hot August sun cliche, lets go into the Wayback Machine for a quick trip to that summer afternoon 11 years ago.

The Buckeyes had just finished an elite run of four years where they did virtually everything but win a national championship. Some killer losses to Michigan during that stretch probably kept them from winning a national crown. They had lost only two regular season games to anyone other other than the Wolverines. NFL Draft Day had become a celebration of riches for Buckeye players. Miami, meanwhile, was granted to have had a load of budding talent, but hadn’t competed much on the national level in the wake of their 1995 probabtion. The stars of this team included, all underclassmen, Najeh Davenport, Jeremy Jackson, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Dan Morgan, Nate Webster and Mike Rulph. Ken Dorsey was a year away from starting. Ed Reed was a year away from arriving on campus. But plenty of pieces were already in place. We had seen a glimpse of it in the season finale the prior season when an Edgerrin James powered Cane outfit upset undefeated UCLA, knocking the Bruins out of the national title picture. James had bolted for the NFL, but the Canes still had enough untapped talent to throttle the Buckeyes that day 23-12, in a game that was never less than a double digit spread the entire second half. At this time in the college football world it was a seismic outcome to see Ohio State not only lose this early in the season, but also as decisively as they did. 

Despite losing a nice core from their 1998 Rose Bowl Champion team the season before, the Buckeyes had been installed as 5-point chalk that day. I dont think most people knew just how mediocre that Buckeye team, which eventually didnt even make it to a bowl game, would be. How many guesses would the OSU fan on the street need to guess who the starting QB was in that game? How many of them would even recognize Austin Moherman’s name? And I know we werent thinking the Canes as a legit contender for national honors. But even though they had a couple dozen or so more losses than OSU over the previous four seasons, they had more talent in their starting lineup that day than the Bucks. Who knew? It took another season before the Canes put up a national title contending season, but it became clear against OSU that day that the Canes were officially on the rise. Of their four 1999 losses, one came to Penn State, who owned the top ranking from the start of the year through their upset loss to Minnesota in Novemer, and two others came to Florida State and Virginia Tech who squared off against each other for the national championship. Over the next three seasons, Miami only lost two total games.

The second of which, of course, was to the Buckeyes in that aforementioned title game. The roles had been reversed. Miami was the elite of the elite, while OSU, after three average seasons, was trying to re-establish its place at the head table. And, like in 1999, the winner extended on a long run of unparalled success (OSU has won 5 league titles in a row and six straight against the hated Wolverines) while the loser for a variety of reasons sagged back into the depths of the middle class and December, at best, bowl destinations. The Canes bottomed out on their end of this trend going 13-14 from 2006-07. Read more »

Northwestern, Big 10 Have A Lot To Lose In Cats Opener

July 23, 2010
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(Ed Note: The last in a series of looks at the opening weekend of the season for the Big 10. We’ll begin dissecting Week 2 next week as we continue our sneak peaks at the league’s out of conference schedule)

Northwestern gained a ton of credibility in their tightly fought, overtime loss in the Outback Bowl to Auburn of the Big Bad SEC. They will pretty much give all that goodwill away should they lose their season opener on the road to Vanderbilt. And, in the process, drive an early stake through the heart of the suddenly bullish perception of the Big 10 conference. Before we kickoff the 2010 season, the Big 10 probably stands as tall as its stood in recent years in the eyes of the general college football populace. One of the gears driving that uptick was the bowl season a year ago, including two BCS bowl wins, Penn State and Wisconsin beating southern powers and, despite losing, Northwestern rolling up and down the field, dealing out more than 600 yards of total offense against an SEC defense. But if that same Northwestern team gags to a Vanderbilt program thats averaged 3.5 wins a year over the last decade, then let the howling begin. Certainly it will be brought up time and time again throughout the season, especially when Northwestern, as they usually do after a head scratching, early season loss, rebounds and earns a bowl bid. The daily O/U on yokels calling in on the Paul Finebaum daily the second half of the season highlighting the damning evidence of one of the Big 10′s  better teams losing to lowly Vandy will be in the double digits. And each will think they’re down home wittier than the previous caller. I’d rather listen to people debate the fricking relationships on Twilight. I’d also like to not have to defend my screed that this team is decidedly not a lucky, but a good team to the MGo masses this early in this season. So, please, Northwestern, win this game. Think of the children. And, then eat the Commordores. kthnx!!

In all seriousness, the Big 10 might have the most to lose in this game than in any other during the opening weekend. Purdue and Illinois are both big underdogs. They cant really lose anything. Yes, Marshall upsetting Ohio State would be so much larger on the LOL scale for Big 10 detractors, but we’ll cross the bridge of major earth shattering upset when it happens. Its borderline crazy to contemplate it. Michigan is a unique situation. While every move they make early in the season will be used as a referenda for or against another year of Rich Rodriguez, I dont think anything Michigan does until we know for sure what kind of team they are will be a reflection on the actual strength of the league. This has been one of the worst teams in the league the last two years and losing to a UConn team in the opener coming off consecutive bowl wins is no tell tale sign up or down on the greater Big 10.  Nor will a win. That game is a 100 percent Michigan issue. In this Northwestern game, the Big 10 cant win any style points, but they stand to lose a whole heckuva lot.

Lowly Syracuse upset the Cats a year ago, will the 'Dores do the same in 2010?

I’m interested in what the eventual point spread will be in this game. I know, shocking. But just two years ago, to open the 2008 season, Vandy was a home underdog to Miami of the MAC by three points. Miami was coming off a bowl season and were hyped in the summer as a league contender. Vandy was, well Vandy, and seemed a sure thing to picked off by a plucky BCS buster. Yeah, no. The ‘Dores smoked Miami 34-13 in a game that was never close. Incidentally, Miami went on to a brutal 2-10 season, while Vandy qualified and won its first bowl game in almost 20 years en route to an 7-6 season. Could the same thing happen in this one with Vandy pulling off the home upset. It would not be a total surprise. My support for Northwestern aside, let’s be honest here. The Wildcats dont blow anybody out. They specialize in playing–and winning–in close games, so every game they play is dangerous. They also have this little problem of never winning all their non conference games. Last year they lost at Syracuse as road chalk. Two years, Duke beat them. Even in their Rose Bowl year, the aforementioned Miami from the MAC toppled them. This game is a major trap for Northwestern. And the Big 10. It’s one of the more intriguing, under-the-radar games of opening weekend. I’ll be tuning in, purple sock attire and all.

2007 Recruiting, A Look Back: Where Have All The 5-Stars Gone

July 21, 2010
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At least once or twice a week I find myself getting lost on Rivals, or any other recruiting site, absorbing the various player rankings they put forth. Most of the time, however, I’m not staring at lists that involve the current prizes in the talent procurement game. Nope. I get stuck on older lists, often amazed at which team’s class overachieved and which underachieved, per what the gurus expected the players to be like coming out of high school. The 2007 recruiting cycle is a constant fascination for me. Mostly because it was a great recruiting class for my Michigan Wolverines, but also because its had disastrous to non-existent impact for the Wolverines on the field. More than half the kids signed have bolted away from the program in the wake of Lloyd Carr’s retirement and the subsequent hiring of Rich Rodriguez, havent been able to handle college life anywhere or just havent had the goods to succeed or even get on the field yet. Michigan had the Big 10′s top recruiting class in 2007. If you re-ranked those classes based on on-field production at their original schools, Michigan might be ranked dead last as far as 2007 goes. Thats pretty sobering. I’ve got several posts planned focusing on the 2007 classes across the Big 10, but to get us started today, let’s just take a  review of the 5-star recruits signed by conference schools during that cycle.

The Big 10 secured a total of 7 5-star commitments during 2007. That number compares well to most of the other BCS leagues. I said most. That doesnt include the SEC, which tallied a dozen of the highest ranked commits that cycle: Tennessee, 5; Florida, 4; LSU, 2; and South Carolina, 1. The Vols with 5? Wow, talk about a future subject matter to pursue: how a recruiting class with a quintent of 5-stars wallows in mediocrity. The Pac 10 had six 5-star recruits, but all of them signed with USC. The ACC had five signees,the  Big 12 four and the Big East landed three. Only six teams landed mutliple 5-star recruits that season, and two of them were from the Big 10.

Michigan was one of the Big 10 teams that grabbed multiple 5-stars: QB Ryan Mallett and DB Donovan Warren. Neither player is still with the program. Mallett transfered after his freshmen season in Ann Arbor to Arkansas where he is the starter and has eligibiilty through 2011. Warren, meanwhile, played three seasons in the Maize and Blue before declaring for the NFL Draft after the 2009 campaign.  He wasnt selected and is trying to make the New York Jets roster as an undrafter free agent. This represents the tricky part of evaluating recruiting classes after a few years. Clearly Michigan recruited well in this case. But, they couldn’t retain Mallett and therefore get knocked because none of his current high end results took place in Ann Arbor. As for Warren, he clearly didn’t perform up to the 5-star level that classmate Eric Berry did. But, he arguably equalled the play of Texas’ Curtis Brown, the only other 5-star CB in the 2007 class, who has an honorable mention Alll Big 12 on his resume. Still, as a Michigan fan, I’m partly left unsatisfied with Warren’s tenure in Ann Arbor. I dont think he underachieved, but he clearly left a year too early and maybe all the losing has obscured some of his stellar play in this critic’s eye. However, its pretty clear that the signing day excitement 3.5 years ago of reeling in a pair of 5-stars was close to the peak of the Mallett/Warren era at Michigan. And that is decidedly not a good outcome.

One of Ryan Mallett's last plays on the field as a Wolverine

Illinois was the other Big 10 team to sign a pair of 5-stars that cycle. Like Michigan, Illinois has suffered through a pair of losing seasons during the second and third years on campus for these recruits. They’ve also seen a defection of one of the studs, WR Arrellious Benn who declared early for the NFL Draft. He was selected in the second round by Tampa Bay. Read more »

Lets Plays Some Big 10 Over/Under!

July 19, 2010
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We’ve passed another critical summer milepost in the march towards first kickoff, now a mere 44 days away. Books have finally released their season win totals, giving the sordid, gambling types something to bet an over-under on. And desperate, content craved bloggers new benchmarks with which to discuss the clubs. Here at the JCB, we’re both of those demographics, so let’s celebrate one giant step forward towards September with the first of what will be many posts addressing these various lines the rest of the summer. How about starting in our back yard, with the near and dear Big 10. Lines have been released for five teams–Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin. The rest of the clubs just wouldn’t generate enough betting interest. Even you, MSU. Which is too bad, really. I just received this excited text earlier today: J-Dawg. Let it ride on 7. Coach D.  Man, I hate disappointing people, but sorry coach, thats just not available. Besides, you cant just pick a number, you have to go either over or under.

Note: These are for regular season wins only. Bowl games will not count. Dont lose sight of that whenever handicapping these numbers.

Ohio State O/u 10.5 wins…….this is the only Big 10 team that needs to win an elite number of games to tilt the Over. If OSU losses twice in the regular season–something they’ve done eight times in the last 11 years, the Under will cover. The Bucks are going for their sixth straight league title, but the conference appears to be getting stronger and sits as well regarded as its really been during this oppressive Scarlett and Gray stranglehod. With road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa, there are losses on this schedule, right?  The key game to this whole equation might be the non league tilt with Miami in the second weekend. The Canes are on the uptick, but not nearly as top shelf as the Texas or USC outfits the Bucks played in those series that have led to three of the most recent multi loss seasons in Columbus. Without a loss to the Canes, the Bucks would need to lose twice in league play to stay under the total. Thats something they havent done since 2004.

Wisconsin, O/U 9 wins……..You know the Badgers will rack up wins. Their non conference slate of at UNLV, San Jose, Arizona State and Austin Peay has 4-0 written all over it. That leaves them to put up a 6-2 record in conference play to win any over bet. The problem? Thats a mark the Badgers have hit only twice in the 10 seasons since their consecutive Rose Bowl appearances to close out the 1990s. They just cant avoid the Big 10 landmines. They gag away in-the-bag road wins in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Get worked over by Northwestern every other time out. They just cant beat Iowa, period. Purdue owned them the first half of the decade. The league big dogs Ohio State and Penn State have had little resistance from them the last three seasons. Even Indiana has found a way to beat the Badgers twice this decade. But with no Penn State on the docket, Ohio State coming to Madison and a typically no win road trip to Michigan being the farthest thing from that, maybe the door is wide open for a break through Big 10 record. How will the Badgers do on the road in league play against the slate of at MSU, at Iowa, at Purdue and at Michigan? Only twice–2000 and 2006–have the Badgers won more than two road games on their Big 10 slate during the last decade Read more »

It’s A Rule: You Must Be An Underdog To Pull An Upset

July 19, 2010
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One of my obsessive pet peeves as a sports fan is people hollering upset even though the winning team was favored. If you’re favored to win the game, you can not spring the upset. I dont care if you arent ranked and the vanquished is. I dont care if the team you beat has a better record. If you’re the chalk, your win isnt an upset.  The fans may respond as such by aiming their enthusiam at the goalposts or rushing the court because a big win is a big win, regardless of odds. Go for it. Thats stuff I can support. But I hate it when I hear sportscasters, pundits, and so-called experts shout upset when the chalk wins. It just shows a lack of certain comprehension that I think is necessary to properly opine on the games. I dont get fired up about it as I used to because it happens all the time. I pretty much just snort a laugh that’s the linguistic cousin of ‘get off my lawn’ while silently branding the speaker as the day’s biggest idiot.  I guess I wish there was some way we could gamble on this. Like odds on which Sportscenter anchor will toss the upset words off their lips in the wake of any game where an unranked favorite does a job on a ranked team. I’d probably bet Stuart Scott all the time. Sounds profitable over time, right?

You dont need to be an underdog to rush the field, but you do to spring an upset

I bring this up after reading this post over on the SBN trying to predict the top 5 upsets that will occur this year during the Big 10 football season. In no particular order the blogger selected UConn over Michigan, Penn State over Iowa, Wisconsin over Ohio State, Iowa over Wisconsin and Purude over Michigan. All reasonable picks. I wouldnt be surprised if he had a winning record with those five.  But upsets? You’re not really going for degree of difficulty points with those five. And you’ve committed a Cardinal Sin in my book. You’re picked a team that’s favored,  predicted them to win and called it an upset. To quote Marvin the Martian, that makes me very angry.

Iowa is favored over Wisconsin, by a -3 line per the oddsmakers. A win by the Hawks over the Badgers isn’t an upset. Frankly, Iowa doesnt upset anybody in Iowa City. Even when they are an underdog at Kinnick Stadium, I still expect them to win. They are rarely catching points however at home. Right now, they arent in this one, and I doubt that will have changed come game week in mid-October considering they’ve only been an underdog twice in the last nine years at home against anybody other than Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. When one of your prime summer upsets involves a favorite winning at home something has gone awry. For that matter, a second pick of those five isnt really an upset either, but rather an outcome of coin flip. Michigan at Purdue, well off in the distant future of November, is listed as a pick ‘em, so while picking the Boilers to beat Michigan may sound chic, it’s hardly going near the thin ice in the middle of creek by picking a team thats won two in a row in the series and might as well be the chalk since the game is a pick ‘em and their playing at home in Ross Ade Stadium.

I’ll grant the rest, although two of them–Wisconsin over Ohio State and Penn State over Iowa–the line is tight with the projected upset winner only catching a field goal at the start. With PSU over Iowa, you gain on the upset metet by picking Iowa to lose at home. However, I’ve used the coin flip term up above and these games are pretty close to that as we break it down in the summer. The fifth game, UConn over Michigan in the opener, does look indeed like it would fall into the upset category. And at least you’re picking something against the public grain. Betting action by the public has already seen this line climb from 3 to 4 points with the home Wolverines chalk. Fading that qualifies as predicting an upset. Read more »