Interregnum: Clock Ticking On 1-Team WAC
(Blog Note: This fine post was brought to you by Seth, perhaps the world’s only triple threat Hawaii-Texas-Michigan fan. Today, he takes a look at how the ‘Bows and their league brethern are shaping up as the clock ticks on the 1-team WAC. He’ll be back throughout the summer and season to blog about all things college football)
INTERREGNUM: CLOCK TICKING ON 1-TEAM WAC
By Seth
Yes, it’s an exercise in superfluity to predict Boise State will win the WAC. However, for the record: Boise State will win the WAC. But that’s not interesting; or, at least, it doesn’t make for interesting writing. When you write the WAC preview from the perspective of somebody interested only in the team that makes it out, that plays in a BCS bowl, you reduce any number of results to a binary formulation: either Boise State wins the WAC and finishes undefeated, or Boise State wins the WAC and does not finish undefeated. The consequences you care about aren’t December’s crowning of a conference champion, but rather January’s bowl selection and results.
For a while now, the WAC title race hasn’t been much of an event. It’s not merely because Boise State has taken the conference crown nearly every time; it’s because they’ve lost two games in ten years, and won the conference one of those years anyway. With one season left to play before their revered and despised leader departs for hillier and more verdant pastures, the WAC’s member schools stand ready to greet a welcomingly uncertain future. This preview, then, unlike many others, concerns itself not with this year’s national title race, but rather with the interregnum’s intrigue: the final jockeying for position as the monarch prepares to vacate his throne. Like all horse races, this one has different groupings: the Contenders and the Challengers, and then the (uncovered) Chaff.
The Contenders
Under Pat Hill, Fresno State has never had a losing record in-conference. Of course, with the exception of the 4-8 2006 team’s 
swoon, FSU hasn’t had a losing record over all, either. But even then, in his darkest hour, Hill pulled out four conference victories—including one over 8-win Nevada to open the season. There is no reason to think that this team will not match last year’s conference record, even with its surrender of conference rushing leader (1,808 total yards; 6.6 ypc and 150.67 ypg) Ryan Matthews to the NFL. For one thing, in 2009 each of FSU’s 4 losses was to a bowl team; for another, two of them were to BCS-bound Cincinnati and Boise State, and another was to 10-win Wisconsin (last seen smothering Miami in January, but only after having beaten FSU’s conference-mate Hawai’i 51-10 in December). And for another, pace Myerberg, FSU will replace Matthews better than you might think. Each of the past 6 seasons, they have rushed for more than 4.5 ypc. In fact, before Matthews (2007-2009) became a featured back in the offense, they had several unfairly effective rushing attacks; in 2006, with Dwayne Wright (1,462 yds; 11 TDs) leading the attack, FSU rang up a whopping 5.02 ypc on the ground. Even on route to their worst finish in decades, they got it done down low. Anyone expecting anything less than a stellar rushing attack with the entire offensive line returning for 2010 should be prepared for a pleasant surprise. What the fortunes give in one breath, however, they take away in another; the FSU front seven permitted opponents a whopping 6.01 ypc on the ground, and surrendered an uninspiring 22 rushing touchdowns. This year’s pre-conference schedule promises to yield some victories, as eminently winnable home games against rebuilding Cincinnati and dilapidated Illinois will be complemented by an execution of Cal Poly at home. The marquee OOC match-up, though, looks like it will be at Mississippi, whose defense of Oxford under Houston Nutt has been strong overall (11-3) but prodigious against non-conference opponents (6-0). To demand a win in Mississippi would be unrealistic, but to imagine a 3-1 record out of conference, and a 9-3 record overall, would be well in line with recent results and the consistency Hill’s teams have demonstrated in-conference. Fresno State’s Bulldogs will play in a bowl game this year; whether they will challenge for the second place in-conference, and head into 2011 with a target on their backs, remains to be seen.
Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews took the rushing award very quietly; the bigger to-do, obviously, was Nevada’s convoy of thousand-yard rushers. Blah blah blah system blah blah inflation blah blah. The offense was a sight to behold during Nevada’s 8-game winning streak from October 3rd through November 21st, when they beat UNLV by 5 touchdowns in a home edition of their yearly derby and averaged 47.25 points a game. And yet, on October 3rd, the offense was a sight for sore eyes rather than a sight to behold; opening the year with a hideous blanking in South Bend, and failing to come within a touchdown of (bad) Colorado State and (mediocre) Missouri, had Chris Gault’s team reeling, desperate for a win, heading into the league season. It hardly bears mention that Nevada’s most effective performances came against teams with the worst rushing defenses in the country; with national rankings of #77 and #81, respectively, Idaho and Louisiana Tech put the most effective units on the field to face the Pistol, but Hawai’i’s, Utah State’s, Fresno State’s, UNLV’s, and San Jose State’s piteous squads all gave up more than 200 yards a game on the ground and proved themselves incapable of stopping Nevada whatsoever. The offense will be good, and will win Nevada league games. But can consistency enter the picture, and reduce the recurrent nightmare that has every season marked by tale-of-two-teams streakiness? Feast-or-famine is no way to win conference titles regularly, even in this league. With the WAC championship becoming something other than an abstract property in 2011, it will be the work of 2010 for Gault, and his team, to balance the 7-1 conference record with some out-of-conference victories, and to balance the 344.92 ypg offense with something other than a 409.3 ypg defense. Another excellent league record is within reach, with Nevada playing seven home games for the first time in the ‘pack’s history as a Division-I football team; taking a big step in the direction of a conference crown as soon as that piece of headware becomes wearable will involve going on the road and beating Fresno State and Hawai’i. You have the horses; they all return. Will it be L 10-45 (2010 SMU-Nevada), or W 52-14 (2009 FSU-Nevada), on the scoreboard in Fresno and Honolulu? Champions reduce inconsistency to nothing, and make mistakes marginal factors; as perennial runners-up, the Wolfpack hasn’t yet had to try that out.
The Challengers
Hawai’i finds itself in an odd position, as the clock runs out on the 1-team WAC, if only because this was the only squad that took a conference championship away from the Broncos. You’ll remember: 2007’s magical title campaign saw Colt Brennan and his receivers connect for six touchdowns and 495 yards of offense to send Boise back home with an 11-point loss instead of a league title. Last year’s Rainbow squad, initially led by the able Greg Alexander, faltered at Lousiana Tech by turning in an ugly 6-27 effort; Alexander tore his ACL in the game, and saw his college career end that night. Credit where it’s due: McMackin righted the ship after the Bows’ six-game losing streak and rattled off four straight toward the end of the season, with an upset over Kenny Niumatalolo’s 10-win Middies at Aloha Stadium. WAC secondaries are typically poor, and Hawai’i’s was only sort of an exception last year (allowed 200 ypg), at least UH returns two players with game experience at every roster spot. McMackin’s new DC, Dave Aranda, will look to have the depth and talent in the defensive backfield take some pressure off a weak front seven (opp. avg = 4.8 ypc last year) now in need of finding a suitable replacement for departing all-Conference OLB Blaze Soares. Luckily for Hawai’i, it returns both its QB and its all-American receiver, Greg Salas, whose 1,590 receiving yards was tops for the conference and exceeded the next-place total, that of Vandal Max Komar, by 538 yds. The attack will be as potent as ever through the air in pure yardage terms, though efficiency in the red zone—the team’s primary offensive weakness last year—will need to improve if better results are to be had. And this is a primary complaint one might make about the McMackin era, when comparing it with the tenure of Coach Mack’s predecessor, June Jones: the team lacks the killer instinct, the score-at-will attitude, that characterized the monstrous 2006 and 2007 offenses. McMackin will have the horses this year to try and dismiss the criticism. Though the Bows won a few close ones (3-1 in ≤ 7pt Contests), and had a Hawai’i team’s typical road weakness (1-4 away), this next year’s team should not only reach a bowl game, but set itself up well to challenge for third or even second place in the conference. Look for a tough OOC slate (Charleston Southern and at Army are offset by USC and at Colorado) to be balanced by a favorable conference schedule; 2009 bowl teams Nevada and Idaho come to Aiea, with @ rival Fresno State surely the toughest conference road game. The Fresno State game (in 2009: FSU 42 17 UH, two Hawai’i touchdowns in garbage time with < 8:00 remaining) will be difficult. However, FSU’s status as a rival, and as a team against which Hawaii has a strong record (15-9-1 since 1970, 6-3 since 2001, and 4-1 at FSU since 2001) make this a crucial swing game in Hawaii’s campaign, which, while not unwinnable, may prove the best indicator of the Bows competitiveness moving into a more wide-open conference future.
Whether or not Utah State ever produces a WAC conference champion remains an open question; less in doubt, however, is that their 2009 squad was quite a bit more competitive than it had any right to be (an early loss at Texas A&M was less competitive than the score makes it seem [two garbage-time scores by USU beautify the result], but USU’s near-achievement of yardage parity represented undeniable progress), and more success should be forthcoming. Gary Peterson, fresh off coordinating the 2008 Utah defense that smothered Alabama’s attack and secured a Sugar Bowl victory, had his team playing with resolve last year (), even if the results didn’t register where it counts (4-8 [3-5]). This year’s squad promises to be better. A crucial question will involve whether the offense can overcome the loss of 2nd-team all-WAC center Brennan McFadden by returning four contributors on the line and a surfeit of talent at the skill positions (all WRs are upperclassmen, with several years of contributions made, though none but Stanley Morrison has been a consistent starter; QB Diondre Borel and RB Michael Smith constitute an all-senior backfield). Fun fact: Peter Caldwell, who also returns at K/P, led the conference in punting last year with a 42.19 yd average. With a 10-win MWC heavyweight rotating off the schedule in Utah, but a loaded and unbeatable-at-home Oklahoma team waiting in Norman for the opener and an October 1st date with BYU looming in Logan, USU will need to improve on its conference marks, especially in October, if the post-season is to be a realistic possibility. It seems unlikely that a bowl is in USU’s immediate future, given the OOC slate and the Aggies’ historical disadvantages, but their coach has a proven track record and the conference slate can be forgiving for a WAC team that fields a defense. Look to see a season in the mold of an Idaho 2009 during Peterson’s tenure here, and maybe even as early as 2011 or 2012.
I am not especially confident that Idaho will repeat last year’s success. To be sure, there are some encouraging numbers. Though 
they were outscored by a field goal a game, the Vandals not only maintained yardage parity both on the air and on the ground, but also managed to limit turnovers to only 7 interceptions and 8 fumbles lost (overall TO margin: +8). Televised replays of the Vandals’ daring OT bowl victory on a 2-point conversion will provide perhaps the greatest tribute to the 2009 squad’s resilience under pressure; they should also remind us of the razor-thin margin for error the Vandals enjoyed throughout the year. They beat reeling Hawai’i in October, but were outgained; the same was true of their Halloween match against Utah State, as the Aggies outgained the Vandals by nearly a hundred yards and lost by one. Those were wins, fair and square. They don’t keep score by tallying yards, or crucial turnovers, or even thrilling finishes. And yet, one hesitates to hope for another bowl; the out-of-conference schedule features a sure loss in Lincoln, and while games against Colorado State, North Dakota, and San Jose State might well be winnable, another .500 conference record is no guarantee, given the great difficulty with which that modest goal was achieved last year.
Into the Unknown
Besides 2007, college football’s craziest season in recent memory, the years have been unkind to the teams which will constitute the WAC in 2011. The conference championship has long been something awarded in the pre-season, rather than earned on the field of play; and as a result, appraisals of the WAC race have been cursory, sketchy, largely distracted affairs. 2010 provides a brief interregnum, during which the assembly of momentum for 2011 will be an overriding priority. The king is about to depart, and the assembled contestants for his throne are gathered. Let’s hope the next king’s reign is shorter, and not quite so absolute.
Assembling this post would not have been thinkable without the invaluable resources placed at the reader’s hand by http://www.cfbstats.com, and by the tireless and inimitable Paul Myerberg, now at http://www.presnapread.com .
