Big 10 Out Of Conference Games: Missouri vs Illinois

So did you like all that soccer? I did. But in the process this blog largely skipped out on what is usually a red letter day on the summer schedule as we grind our way throught the long, mundane college football season. College football lines were released during our heavy flirtation with futbol and the World Cup. We havent blogged a word about that here at the JCB. That changes today. Over the next couple of weeks, we’re going to focus on some games that the oddsmakers have already put a price on and talk about what we like, dislike and what to look for in those games. This will be Big 10 heavy and at the start we’re going to hone in on the notable out of conference games being by played by the league’s teams. We intended on going week by week, but we’ve changed gears and instead are going to get the feature started on a game by game basis. We start off with a look at this year’s battle in St. Louis between rivals Illinois and Missouri. Also: Unless otherwise noted, the lines provided for these games come from the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas. Double Also: Dont mistake anything in these writeups as actual picks. We’re a long way from comitting to either side on most games, this is just a fun exercise and something to talk about while it’s still July. With that said, let’s dive right into some football talk, JCB-style.

Missouri -10 vs Illinois, 12:30, 9/4 (game in St. Louis)

Oddsmakers hoodwinked folks on this one last year. It’s the reason why I am leading off with this game.  Released as part of the games of the year board last June, the line opened with the Illini a slight, yet teasing 2.5-point favorite.  It proved too tantalizing for a boatload of victims people.  I love how by the fifth comment in that thread posters are mocking the line, asking what the max bet is. People piled on throughout that thread and, in real life, the dough on the Illini’s side all summer long. The line grew the entire off season before settling in at Illinois -7 on game day. The Book led people into their Illini trap all summer and the claws came down hard when Missouri thrashed Illinois 37-9 to open the season. Another Illinois-Missouri game, another Tiger win. And, a big payday out of the gates for the oddsmakers. They probably made their season before the first weekend was even over. I’m glad I was nowhere near it. Hey, I’ve had my thing of sure things go awry, so I lend an empathetic ear to everyone out there.

Bookies everywhere probably sang the Mizzou fight song right along with the players after last year’s payday rout:

This year? No worries about a similar bait. They’re not trying to fool anybody with the Blue and Orange dressed as easy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win., setting them as 10-point underdogs in the opener against neighboring Missouri. It’s a big year for the Zook Administation. Its hard to see a 2011 with another losing season. By all accounts, the pieces ought to be in place for a rebound. In 2007, 08 and 09, the consensus among the gurus was that the Illini brought in top-25 classes each year. With the front end of that stretch entering their fourth year in the program, its getting to be time where those recruiting rankings need to begin to reflect actual in-season rankings, or at least a bowl bid. The depth chart heading into summer practice shows eight starters on defense, the quarterback, running back and three projected offensive line starters have sprouted from that trio of talent hauls.

Zook’s guys are in place. But the knock on Zook never was that he couldnt rake the talent. The question was could he develop it, locate the right spot on the field to play them and coach them strategically within the game?  Insert any kind of jury is still out type of cliche. Maybe hint that it might be an understatement.  So, if he cant win with a first team dominated by players from good recruiting classes in his sixth year at Illinois, then what’s he going to do in the future? The talent mining has fallen off in the wake of 5- and 3-win seasons. Rivals pegs this current freshmen class at a weak 70th in the nation and their next class, despite its high ceiling, is ranked near the bottom of the Big 10 at this point.

 For the second straight year, the Illini are on Phil Steele’s Most Improved Team list. Last year, they were a rare team to appear on that list and see their total wins decrease. With the bar set lower, can they come through in 2010 and improve their win total like most do on that list? I dont see why not. An early look ahead of the season calls for optimism with a shake up in offensive philosophy and a new defensive coordinator. I know they lose a lot of production form Juice Williams, but I think the quarterbacking might be in capable shape with Nathan Scheelhasae, a 4-star recruit, redshirt freshman.  In 2009, Rivals ranked him as the 7th incoming dual threat QB in the country. For comparison purposes, that’s just two spots behind Michigan’s Tate Forcier. We saw the upside he had last year. Illini fans have to hope that they can get even better play out of Scheehaase because the prospect is three inches taller and will have a year of practice to grow into the role of college QB, as opposed to the Michigan freshmen that was forced into the fire immediately upon arrival.

But the question is will it be enough to get the Illini a winning record or at least bowl eligibility? For positive answers, it’s all up to the defense. When we last saw the Illini, they were losing games to Cincinnati and Fresno to close the season despite scoring 36 and 52 points. They do have eight starters returning, but its from a unit that gave up yards and points in bunches, finishing in the bottom quarter of all schools in yards allowed while yielding 30 points per game. They ought to get a boost with Martez Wilson’s return to the lineup. The linebacker missed all of last season after a neck injury in the opening game. If he can stay healthy and begin to live up the recruiting bonafides he brought to campus, then the Illini might be able to recover on D. Regardless, his “addition” to the lineup might be the most important defensive “addition” throughout the Big 10.

I wont discount the Illini’s chances of winning this game. However, they have a lot of history going against them. If  the past is any indication, expect the Illini to be chasing right out of gates. This series has been a disaster for them. These clubs met in consecutive seasons beginning in 2002 and this current run began in 2007. Missouri has won and covered all five matchups, including three double digit wins. The Illini have never been able to contain Missouri’s offense, being outscored 36.5-24 in those five games. It’s not just opening with Missouri. It’s really any opener for the Illini. There arent too many programs out there who are worse coming out of the gates than the Illini. They have only covered the spread once in their first lined game of the season since 2002 are are 7-18 ATS in those games since 1985.  On one hand, Illinois cashed in their final four times last year when catching points, but can you really trust this team in this one given their history with Missouri and subpar opening performances.? Take these 10 points at your risk. There have to be better investments than the Illini on opening weekend.

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