Monthly Archives: June 2010

Estimated Prophets Have First Steelegasms

June 3, 2010
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Phil Steele 2010 Preview

The offseason is formerly over. I now  have an actual copy of Phil Steele’s 2010 magazine. I learned a couple of years ago that the nearest Barnes and Noble, which isnt exactly around the corner where I live, drops these on their newstands pretty much the first business day of June, in advance of the actual release date on the author’s website. So naturally I navigated over there yesterday to pick up a copy. My poolside reading for the summer has been found. Its exciting to know that by the time I have this annual fully digested we’ll be kicking off the season. Its that close people. I’ve only had time to skim various sections, but here are a few Steelegasms I had on intital look see.

Even though I heard about this last week, I remain stunned to see Steele’s research somehow lead him to think the Spartans Keith Nichol is worthy of third team all big 10 selection. The converted QB only recently made the switch this spring and there’s really nothing to suggest he’s going to have that big of an impact. If you’re hellbent on picking on a Spartan in that spot, why not tab Keshawn Martin? He’s averaged over 22 yards a catch last season, was very effective running end arounds and reverses when called upon and is one of the better kick returners in the league. He scored seven times. I believe he’s thrown a touchdown pass in each of his first two seasons at MSU as well. All of this as a backup. Now, he’s a starter. He might make my top 12 WRs in the league, but I know Nichol would not. Steele gets credit for making Martin his first team kickoff and punt returner for the league and perhaps that excludes him for a spot on any of the receiver lists. But, Martin is going to have bigger impact catching the ball than Nichol. Read more »

Big 10 Myth Busting: Northwestern Is The Luckiest Team?

June 1, 2010
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Pat FitzgeraldIts probably going to be an uneven and incomplete summer posting college football previews. I’m not sure where to start. So right off the bat, I’m just going to riff and rail against whats becoming a defining meme in the Big 10 hoods of blogrifca that I travel. I’m looking to take down this meme, even if I dont have any fancy charts or a witches brew of performance variables spitting out a final number.

The Northwestern Wildcats were the luckiest football team in college football in 2009. And it wasnt even close. The irrepresible Mathlete at MGoBlog created his own luck formula and the results showed Northwestern’s luck far outpaced everyone else. Like stacked deck luck. Last year alone their good fortune was good enough for more than a 2-game swing in the standings in their favor. Going by his final numbers, he submits that at no point did Northwestern ever produce at their eventual 8-win level, claiming it was a stretch the Cats were even bowl eligible. He added it was the second year in a row that the Wildcats took this honor, putting a new math asterik next to the Wildcats accomplishments the last two seasons. Those achievements include a pair of bowl bids, a New Year’s Day appearance, 17 wins overall and a 10-6 Big 10 mark. Thats a whole lot of luck.

Of course people are eating this up. For one reason, we’re all fascinated with new stats, and I am no exception.  As a college football fan, we have little action to watch and during the long off season its really cool seeing different ways of interpretating the action we do see. It feeds a craving. However, this particular meme gains a strong root because it not only helps explain something that doesnt make sense, but it also feeds into our preconceived notions of the college football pecking order. Northwestern isnt supposed to win football games. Northwestern is supposed to be bad. A non-competitive cellar dwellar. No talented players go there to play football. How have they had back to back winning years in the Big 10? Oh, wait, you say they’ve been the luckiest team in football during that time? Oh well, now it makes sense. You see, I guess Northwestern cant win on their merits as an actual good football team with good football players. No siree. Not against the traditional and nouveau wannabe powers of the Big 10.  It’s all luck. This cherrypicked, gerrymandered formula proves it.

It’s a load of crap. I might not have pulled out my chalkboard and calculator to numerically disprove the luck factor. But, I’ll tell you this. Do not be duped into taking an under bet on total team wins based on this flukey formula alleging surprise group sex with a harem of Lady Luck. For example, if you’re staring at O/U 7.5 wins, dont fall back on the words that the Wildcats saw a two game swing in luck in their favor en route to eight wins. Dont book it and assume less wins because you cant run on luck alone. Dont use this conclusion  and make a sucker play against the Cats. They’re headed for another 8-9 win season and another high end bowl destination, allegations of solely smoke and mirror aside. Read more »