Monthly Archives: June 2010

Day One Observations: Beware Of Traitorous Coaches

June 11, 2010
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South Africa's Goal Celebration
Musings on Day One and World Cup coaches from the inimitable JG2112:
  • The vuvuzelas are annoying, but you get used to them. After a while, the low buzz becomes a non-issue (although didn’t it seem like the random audio cuts during the first half of France-Uruguay completely removed the horn sound?). Seeing random 42-year-old French dudes playing those horns was, well, magnifique.
  • Raymond Domenech exists to play with your betting tendencies, Those who follow this site for advice for the true “beautiful game” should take this as World Cup Truth #1: Never risk money on a game in which Raymond Domenech is coaching. His team selection (no Malouda, heh?) and substitutions (taking off Anelka 20 minutes before Govou? Wut?) are done simply to mess with your mind. Rest assured, France will qualify for the knock-out stages with a goal to spare and go on to win the tourney. But that’s nothing over which you should risk your coin.
  • Speaking of, here are four coaches who could affect you in the pocket. I’ll tell you how:
    • (1) Dunga (Brazil) – he plays a more defensive style than what Brazil is used to. In recent times, this has led Brazil to winning World Cups. Coach Effect: Positive.
    • (2) Fabio Capello (England) He’s Italian, so dour defensive work and goals off of set pieces are what you can expect for a majority of England goals. Thing is, that’s no different than England’s play since 2000. Coach Effect: Neutral.
    • (4) Diego Maradona (Argentina) He’s nuts, he’s really not a coach, he’s egomaniacal, and he’s probably aware Leo Messi could eclipse his career with a star-making tournament. Look for this to affect tactics in some way the next month. Coach Effect: Negative.
    • (3) Sven-Goran Eriksson (Ivory Coast) – he’s the reason why England has played dour footie since 2000, as he was their coach. He’s a master tactician, however, who will lead to thousands of unfair stereotypes about African players needing European direction to be successful. While overbroad, Eriksson could meld the Solomon Islands into a somewhat coherent unit, so, the Elephants should benefit from his expertise. Coach Effect: Neutral.
  • The Day One games were not that exciting.  The Uruguay -France game in particular was brutal. Opening games are traditionally nervy affairs, so the hope is that the introduction of the power teams this weekend will raise the level of play.
  • Speaking of the injury issues… Jozy Altidore is starting tomorrow. No word as of press time on Gareth Barry. Didier Drogba is back in training, albeit by himself. Denmark’s Nicklas Bendtner is trying to get match fit. And, the Netherlands’ Arjen Robben flies to South Africa on June 12th to join the Dutch squad.

Enjoy the Saturday games. Go Argentina, Go USA. Read more »

World Cup Roundtable: Part 1

June 11, 2010
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So, if you weaved through my near 2,000 word post earlier today, you learned that I know very little about soccer and that that fact doesnt stop me from spouting out opinions with certainty. I wont subject you to that again. At least not today. So, I enlisted four e-friends who seem to know what they’re talking about when it comes to soccer. Hopefully this is the first of several roundtable discussions on the finals we’ll have over the month. So, without further adieu, I give you JG2112, Mad Magician, SteveY and CG, all of whom hvae more soccer bonafides than myself. This might actually be a JCB soccer post where you might learn something. Thanks for reading, thanks to the guys for sitting down at the table and enjoy the games.

1. Whats your prediction for England/USA? How does that game play out?


mad magician: While I have my reservations about England (more on that later), I think this is a good matchup for The Three Lions. It’s strength against strength in the midfield and England will prove to be too talented.  Both defenses are vulnerable, but where the English at least have John Terry, the Americans have no answer for a fit Wayne Rooney, who scores at least once. 3-1 England.

JG2112: Well, it’ll be on a field, starting with 11 on 11……..seriously, though, my prediction for England – USA is 2-1. If I had to pick goalscorers, I would pick Peter Crouch on a header from a corner kick, and Steven Gerrard with a long range shot. Dempsey will pull one back for America. England will play a very tight, controlled game seeking to cover for Gareth Barry and Ledley King. While I think Dempsey and Donovan will exploit the loss of Rio Ferdinand, John Terry and King should be able to

cover enough for 90 minutes. On the other end, the US won’t be able to deal with England’s speed on the flanks with Ashley Cole, Joe Cole, Wright-Phillips and Lennon. And, Rooney will be a menace all day long. This prediction is with little confidence. I would not be shocked with any result coming out of this game. Read more »

World Cup Day One: Group A, Mathletes And Oddsmakers Disagree

June 11, 2010
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I wont lie. I am more pumped than ever before for Soccer and this World Cup event beginning today. I have never been a soccer guy, but have always enjoyed the World Cup ever since catching the fever when the event performed in the States back in 1994. That was the first summer after I graduated from college. I hadnt really figured out a fulltime working situation yet, and the soccer kept me enthralled during what still was a summer vacation for me. The Americans unexpected run into the Knockout Rounds before losing to Brazil certainly helped maintain my fledgling enthusiasm. I was taken by Nigeria and the Soaring Eagles run in 1998 and remember watching agape as the hometown French dismantled Brazil for an emotional championship. I was living in Chicagi in 2002 and went to all sorts of Irish pubs during breakfast hours with my journalism colleagues who were soccer buffs. Nothing beats an Irish Car Bomb and a win over Mexico subbing in for coffeee and working a city council beat. I dont have many memories of the 2006 event, and I dont really know why. My guess is I wasnt around soccer people and since its not a big sport of interest of mine, it was easy to pay casual attention and retain nothing of the proceedings.  I going to make sure that doesnt happen this go around. I plan on watching a whole mess of soccer the next month.

I’m lost in this sport. I cant speak the language, but I’ve been trying my best to study up the last couple of weeks. And, I’ve realized how much I should like soccer. There are games and all sorts of different leagues going on seemingly all the time. I love a sport in college football where teams just play a dozen times. I am beginning to grasp all the exciting different venues bigtime soccer in played out on and there’s tons of games. The mega ‘I LIKE SPORTS’ fan in me loves that, my craving of high stakes athletic contests loves that and ,well, there are odds everywhere so the gambling man in me loves that. If the next month is as exciting as it seems to promise on paper, soccer may have a permanent fan at the Just Cover Blog.

Despite that you’re clearly not coming to me for amazing insights on the sport to help cut through the fat of the dizzying array of matchups on the board. I have enlisted some legit soccer fans and they’ll be helping out, including what I hope to be the first of several roundtables during the next month which we will post later today. Hopefully between their expertise and my own insights we can keep you informed and maybe find us all a winner or two. I am undaunted by being a novice in this sport I have been  smoking  bowls of Vulture  all week, and I am ready to make off-the-cuff, hopefuly-ignorance-is-bliss predictions thoughtout the month.

So where to begin? How about with the novel concept of looking at the actual games being played today. After weeks of endless hype, we finally get to see some action today. And the Group A games, South Africa vs Mexico and Uruguay vs France,  that kick off the tournament today ought to be nailbiters.  This group may not be able to claim top billing as the Group of Death the way groups CDand G can, but there is no other group that ought to be as competitive from top to bottom as this quartet. France, Mexico and Uruguay are countries with high expectations for their national team and advancement out of group play is but the baseline of those dreams. Throw in the fact the history that backs lightly regarded South Africa–every host country has advanced out of a group play–and you have four teams capable of earning points in every round robin and sneaking into the knockout stage.

What I like about this draw is how different the mathletes and the oddsmakers assess this group. As a bettor, that tells me we could find some sneaky bets as this round robin plays out. In one corner, the statistical analysts peg Uruguay as the favorite to win this group with their 34 percent chance at winning, 61 percent at advancing the most likely outcomes during their number crunching.  Next in line, per their numbers, is France, Mexico and South Africa. This is surprising because while Uruguay was the original soccer world power, this is only their fourth World Cup in the last 35 years and really have no outstanding results since winning this field in 1950. However its clearly a program on the rise having not only qualified for this field but also reaching the semifinals of the last Copa America draw. These performance odds represent that ascension. Think of this team, however, as what traditional NBA contenders have looked like. Go through those history books and notice how many contending teams leaned on a Big 3. Well Uruguay has that with Diego Forlan, one of the world’s most explosvie scorers, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro. These three can really rule a round robin if they’re playing at their highest level at the same time. Can they do that? Can they get enough from their supporting cast that’s not nearly as deep as France and Mexico? The number crunchers say go ahead and Book It. Read more »

Can African Nations Ride Home Continent Advantage?

June 8, 2010
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South African Fans

One of the cliches in  forecasting American sports is beware of home field advantage. What about in International Soccer, specifically the upcoming World Cup which begins in South Africa later this week? We’ve seen teams use this to their advantage just in the last two decades. Team USA made an unexpected breakthrough to advance out of a group play when they hosted the finals in 1994. France won the whole thing, woodshedding Brazil in the championship when they hosted in 1998. South Korea hosted in 2002 and streaked Cinderella-like all the way to the semifinals. Si, all that bodes well, not only for host country South Africa, but all the other African countries as their continent will likely put aside hisotric differences to pull for each other with the sporting world all watching them. Lets take a look, group by group, at the chances and odds of the six different African Nation teams.

GROUP A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

We’re going to find out just how strong home country, let alome home continent, advantage is right off the bat as host South Africa is in Group A and plays the very first game of the tournament against Mexico on Friday. I dont think anyone considers the South Africans a threat.  That’s putting it lightly considering they’re 150/1 odds to win this whole thing. They are the longshot to win Group A, sharing the pool with France, Uruguay and Mexico. Perhaps as a nod to the possible good tidings home pitch could bring, they’re just 6/1 to win this group, one of the lowest payouts among the longshots in each of the eight groups.

Despite their low expectations, if the odds play out accordingly, South Africa will at least be playing tight games. Yes, they do currently pay out 3.75/1 in a win over France, their third and final pool game, but even that is about twice as less a payout the Yanks would get with a win over the Brits. More intriguing are their matches with Mexico and Uruguay. They’re close to equal odds. In the opener, South Africa is +180 and Mexico is +150. It’s +190 to +140 in favor of Ururguay in that match next Wednesday. Draws pay a bit more than 2/1 in each case. What does any of that mean? Despite the fact South Africa is 150/1 to win this whole tournament, the oddsmakers basically are telling us the betting public feels their first two matches are anybody’s game. When you think about it, it would be so Mexico to slog through that opener against the emotionally charged hosts and manage just a draw. With momentum, the South Africans can beat Urugauy before falling to France, but eventually securing the group’s second spot. If the Americans could get out of group in 1994 on home turf so can the South Africans.  You’re looking at Argentina in the first knockout match and, like the Yanks against Brazil 16 years ago, the run would be over. This forced me to look up the odds on the stage of elimination being the Round of 16 for South Africa. It pays just 3/1, a deflated payout to protect itself from a boatload of bets riding home country advantage, but I’m still thinking about it.

GROUP B: Nigeria, Argentina, Greece, South Korea Read more »

World Cup 2010: Who is Missing, Who Will Be Missed?

June 7, 2010
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(Ed Note: This post was researched and written by e-friend JG2112, who is helping the JCB throughout its coverage of the 2010 World Cup. Its an excellent piece and we look forward to his continued contributions over the next month)

Followers of any sport recognize that injuries can do significant damage to your depth chart or team. For our purposes at the JCB, we focus on the effect that injuries could have on the 2010 World Cup. Every quadrennial the hopes and dreams of teams expecting to go deep into the tournament get dashed because of rogue injuries before or during the tournament. In 1966, Pele was kicked out of the tournament by the Portuguese. In 1990 (Diego Maradona), 1994 (Roberto Baggio), 1998 (Ronaldo) 2002 (Zinedine Zidane, David Beckham), and 2006 (Wayne Rooney), injuries took the shine off of the performances of a few of the top players at each of those tournaments.

The 2010 edition is no different, and too bad for that, as a World Cup which will allow certain folks to get on a soapbox about the choice of South Africa as the tourney’s venue needs quality play and star power to provide a counterpoint to those persons’ jingoism and xenophobia (though it must be asked: other than the Olympics, is there a bigger public display for those traits than the World Cup?) While the standard of play will be helped by the lowest temperatures at game-time since perhaps the 1978 World Cup in Argentina, the tournament’s star power has been severely affected by injuries. Messi, Xavi, Rooney, and Donovan remain. However, the following are bullet-points as to a few players who are missing or whose participation is uncertain at the 2010 World Cup due to injury, and how that person’s absence should affect your view of that team’s chances for success (and since you’re reading JCB, anything you may do in reliance on that view).

Jozy Altidore

(1) Jozy Altidore (Striker, USA) – last week Altidore sprained his ankle in practice, and was held out of the Obamamaniacs’ 3-1 victory over Australia as a precaution. The benefit? Edson Buddle scored two goals as his replacement. The Americans might have a few goalscoring options between Altidore, Buddle, Dempsey and Donovan that will make the question, “Say, where is Freddy Adu?” jejune. Expect Altidore to be at least ready for 45 minutes versus England, and to play into shape against Algeria and Slovenia.

Is this injury significant? Yes, in that Buddle was unearthed as a legitimate option at international level. Altidore should be a key contributor during the tournament, but Buddle provides a legitimate substitute for Altidore. Read more »