Monthly Archives: June 2010

All the first games in the eight groups are in the books.  On to the second leg of the round robins.

We start where we began the whole tournament with the host South Africans and the tight battles in the balanced, competitive Group A.  After a series of ties last Friday all four teams sit knotted at a one point apiece. The action during the first games of this round robin might not have been too inspiring to the soccer critics, but the group  remains wide open. Today and tomorrow’s games in this group represent one final shuffle in the pecking order headed into next week’s final match.

While Group A isnt the Group of Death, it does have four clubs, of of whom are Knockout Round caliber, who have a decent chance at advancing beyond this stage. Between France, Mexico, South Africa and Uruguay, its going to be a four-way fight for the top two spots. While just advancing would be a credit against this bunch, its still important how you finish. The first place team lands in a winnable area of the knockout bracket, facing beatable teams like Nigeria, South Korea, England or the US in the second and quarterfinal rounds. The winner of this group could be considered a favorite to make it to the semifinals. While qualifying for the second round in second place out of this group is an accomplishment, the reward is an elimination match with Argentina. So those are the stakes as the Group’s second leg begins later today. Tomorrow, France and Mexico square off.  This afternoon’s contest features South Africa and Uruguay. Let’s take a deeper look at that match.

South Africa and Uruguay won with draws on the opening day of the tournament and will try to carry the momentum to more points this evening. Differing opinions are easy to find for this match. Inside Futbol calls for a South African win, while the crew at thesportscampus have called for a  Uruguay win.  Oddsmakers have made Uruguay a slight favorite tonight at +145 with the South Africans paying out +210 should they win. Uruguay has moved from third favorite on the board to win this group to the second favorite behind France. Considering this club barely made the World Cup field, doing so after finishing in fifth place in their qualification pool and winning a 2-game playoff spot for one of the final spots, their climb into contention has been revealing.

Everyone knows the story of the South Africans. Host country, unknown talents, a chorus of vuvvuzelas serenading their every move. Like every other host country before them, they earned at least a point in their opening World Cup match. Can they continue to ride history and advance out of Group Play like every other host country before them. Accused of being the weakest home country ever before the games, the Bafanas went a long way towards taking down that meme with their draw against the talented Mexicans in the opener. They can all but kill that with three points against the nasty, defensive minded Light Blues of Uruguay.

A DOMINANT, LIGHT BLUE SHADE OF DEFENSE Read more »

The showdown of the Day 5 at the World Cup pits Portugal and Ivory Coast. This game is where the round robin rubber meets the Group of Death road. While Group D can make a case for the status, and Group A might be the most balanced, this group gets the tag because both Portugal and Ivory Coast should be in the Knockout Round. Its an incomplete, and less dangerous, Sweet 16 without one of these squads. These teams should advance out of group play. It’s a tale of two teams with stars.  In those other groups the strong backbone is made of equal teams who have the caliber to advance, but none are programs that feel like they have a rightful place deep on the knockout bracket. These are clubs that could sneak all the way to the semifinals and in retrospect we’d look at it and should have known all along. Yet, barring an unforeseen Brazillian collapse, one of these clubs wont survive the group. Ladies and gentlemen, the Group of Death! An easy to hate, punching bag ripe for goal differential shenanigans now included!

 Which Portugal team will show up at the finals? The one that slogged through the first part of qualifications where they settled for a nil/nil draw against Albania and only moved forward thanks to late rallies and scores in the final minutes. Or the one that dominated the closing kick of qualifications, winning three straight shutouts en route to second place to the Danes and a spot in this field? How do we know Portugal is talented? They have 11 guys on their team who go by just one name. Everyone knows their top gun Christiano Ronaldo. A prodigy, dominant scorer in club play, Real Madrid star, one of the most famous players on earth. But he’s never starred in international competition and carries on World Cup competition scoring drought of four games into this game. With Portugal seemingly poised and equipped for its deepest run in this tournament in a couple of generations, there are expectations on galore for Ronaldo to deliver and silence his critics.  Other picks to click for Portugal could be Simao, who led the Portguese with four goals during qualifying, and Liedson who has been a goal scoring machine the last couple of seasons for Sporting Lisbon. Portugal plays tight but can break into an attack as fast as just about anybody else in this field.

In the other corner is the Ivory Coast, widely noted as the most talented African Nation of the six in this field. So much so that the Coast was by far the betting chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. to advance the farthest among the African entrants despite its placement in the Group of Death. Even with the hurdle of playing without the continent’s best player in Didier Drogba who broke his arm last month. Is this because the Ivory Coast is a deep, talented team even without the Chelsea star? Is this because their African brethern might be somewhat overrated this season? Translation: 50/50.

Let’s talk about the former hypothesis. This club is good beyond Drogba. And they’re paying Sven Goran Eriksson in the neighborhood of $3 milion to coach this team to success despite the unlucky injury to Grogba. He’s been transforming the mindset of the Elephants, and how he gets Ivory Coast playing in the short time under his command will be a coaching storyline of these finals. Erikkson certainly has enough talent on hand remaining. The Elephants can get scoring plays, decisive kicks and matchup problems from at least of half dozen players on the pitch. Here’s a name to look for to pick up the slack: Gervinho. You know you’re arrived as a world soccer power when the player who steps up in the wake of a devasting injury to you star goes by just a single name. He proved a nifty scorer for Lille this season with 13 goals and 4 assists in 32 games. A big world cup for the 23-year-old could led his country to collective glory, while boosting his own career in the process with a possible promotion to Arsenal lurking. Look out for Saloman Kalou, Drogba’s teammate at Chelsea, who sometimes doesnt score enough for his clubs fans, but has shown several scoring bursts during his young internation career and instense midfielder play from Sevilla teammates Romaric and Didier Zokara. Ivory Coast’s best players are among their most versatile and toughest. That keeps them dangerous.  Injuries didnt slow down Germany, Ghana or Netherlands. Ivory Coast’s challenge in this game is a greater one, but they still have enough of the roster to win this game and survive long enough in this field to even get Drogba back on the pitch.

So, how do these teams play it? Do they play for Draw and turn survival into the second round a game of who runs up the score the most on North Korea combined with who keeps it the closest against Brazil? Probably not, although if we’re knotted in the waning moments, dont expect too many chances that could led to disaster the other way. One point, after all, still keeps you alive, but zero points pretty much makes you the first world power to flop in this year’s finals. The first half could have some fireworks. I think each team has enough talent that they’re going for goals, quick strikes and early kill shots. We”ve only seen one Over this whole tournament, during the German blowout of the Socceroos. I think we get a second one here, but it wont be one sided. Nope. We’ll see multiple goals from both sides in what will go down, by far, as the best game of the tournament to date. I’m thinking a 2-2 draw. Read more »

The Yanks draw against England to open their World Cup was a day to remember, but what does it really mean?  Their 1-1 final against the Three Lions Saturday proves a bizarre result to analyze. It actually means more in the larger sense of world international pecking order than it does in the standings of this ongoing event. In playing the talented English to a draw, the Americans proved they belonged in a certain international class. No, they’re hardly a favorite, or a member of the elite class with clubs like Spain, Brazil, Agrentina and Holland. But, then neither really is England. But the English are a member of the next tier, talented and respected enough to play with everybody, but not deep enough to really threaten to win this thing. The Americans can now lay claim to an inclusion into this fluid group. It grates on English fans to have hit a ceiling within thier second tier. For American soccer, its progress worth heralding. Another step taken on the long ladder climb to international respectability.

The world saw American stars make plays against one of the world’s top-10 teams. Todd Howard was the boss. Can you win this tournament playing the hot goalie like you can the Stanley Cup? Howard’s play might force some top-shelf Euro club teams to consider giving a Yank a few games in net. We saw an amazing run by Jozy Altidore, one of the best plays of the first days of the 2010 finals. Oguchi Onyewu, playing soon after a knee injury, make excellent plays on the backline, including one when he went step for step with Wayne Rooney wiping out a scoring chance before it could develop. Landon Donovan looked the part with world class deliveries.  The whole team looked dangerous on set pieces. The Americans earned their program a lot of national respect, not just by the result, but by the quality of play from some of its stars. Last summer, the Yanks made waves by upsetting Spain. Already this summer, they’ve pulled a draw against heavilty favored England. Some heady times indeed for the Yanks.

While I passed a soccer novice benchmark over the weeked by embracing and learning to love the Draw, I dont know how much this result heralds a deep World Cup appearance beyond even group play.  This result earned Team USA a lot of International street cred in the short term, but it doesnt really do anything for them, per se, as things stand in this World Cup bracket. It alters the position they were expected to be in at this point, which is exciting on some levels, but it doesnt make them a lock for the second round. It keeps the door open for them to win the group, but they’re also a bad outcome away in their next game from all but being eliminated from the field. The results of the first round robin games of group play puts the Americans in the ironic twist of being in better postion now than before regarding winning its group, but not forwarding with any certainty the team’s advancement at all out of group play.   

The updated odds back those assertions. Before the tournament, the Yanks were +420 to win this group. Now, they pay just +275 should they win the top seed out of Group C.  So, they are more of a threat according to the betting public to win this group than they were when the betting began. However, the same betting puboic has not adjusted the odds on the Americans getting out of group play. The Yanks being eliminated in group play remains the chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. on the board at +150, which admittedly is less chalky than the +120 before the games began. Still, it remains the lowest payout on the Stae Of Elimination board for the Americans. Being eliminated in the second round has held steady at the same +160 price as it was before the tournament. Slovenia, by the way, has moved from a 10/1 shot to win this group to 5/1.

The USA arent in any better position to advance today than they were before the tournament started. Thanks to Slovenia picking up three points in a 1-0 win over Algieria, the Yanks face more pressure in their game against the Green Dragons this Friday than initially expected. Both England and the Americans are looking up at the Slovenians. And, the Green Dragons can now draw their way into the second round and even stand a decent chance of moving forward with just one more point depending on what else happens. They too have a great goalie with Samir Handanovic. They can beat anybody outside of the elite squads 1-0 if they play the tight D we saw against the Algerians and the goalie is on. This team is organzied and defensive centric like the New Jersey Devils trapping their way through the Stanley Cup tournament. With three points in their back packet, expect them to ratchet up this this strategy. They wont take any chances. If the Americans continue their sticky habit of disorganziation out of the gates a mistake could cost them a goal. Handanovic wont pull a Robert Green. Slovenia feels they can earn a nil/nil draw against the Americans. Slovenia might  remain a mystery  team in this field, but they’re a result away from controlling their own fate to not just advance, but win this pool going into their final round robin game. Thats not a bad position for a sqaud who initially was a 10/1 longshot to win this group. Read more »

The first day of the finals are in the book and coming along with it, apparently is the World Cup of Parity. The two draws in an already anyone’s guess round robin in Group A further muddied the waters, making next week’s matches among this quartet even more critical and must-see. Odds have not budged much at the top and bottom ends of the bracket. France remains chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. and South Africa, despite their inspired effort against the Mexicans, the betting longshots to win this round robin, both at virtually the same prices you could get them before the games.  With the other two, the linemakers are catching up to stat geeks after today’s action dropping the price on Uruguay to +225 and raising Mexico to +375. These two have flip flopped positions and prices on the betting board. You’ll recall the same folks behind PECOTA in baseball formulated the World Cup and made Uruguay the pre tournament favorite. After today’s game and the shifting odds, everyone is almost on the same page. Hopefully you bought in early. Although if Uruguay is going to follow through on those expectations, they’re going to need a talent like Nicolas Lodeiro to play more than the time it takes to make a sandwhich.

Another thing I hope: You didnt take my picks seriously on Day One. Actually scratch that. I do hope you take my picks seriously. My real hope is that you didnt follow me blindly. We crapped out on all as the the failure to reach a decision in the games cost me on picks on Mexico and Uruguay. I really should have paid heed to some off my own advice in my own post. Even though every host team has earned at least a point in their World Cup opener, I failed to secure a winning ticket on South Africa doing so. Even though I mentioned betting both a Uruguay draw and win on equal amounts would at least net a profit if one came home, I just took a ticket on the greedier payout of a Uruguay win, and I lost out. I dont understand how something like happens other than I lose focus when actually staring at a betting board while peeling off bills from the money clip. Whatever. Hey, its a month long tournament. I dont have any delusions of profit. I just want to have fun watching soccer and this helps add to it. So, on to a new day, one with three games.

The first two games today showcase Group B. It’s perhaps the one Group with the most obvious pecking order. From chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. to longshot, its Argentina, Nigeria, Greece and South Korea. I dont think we can discount Greece getting out of group, but I think when push comes to shove just about every analyst would predict the 1-2-3-4 order above.

 The Greece-South Korea match we’re watching because everyone wants to see if either can emerge as a threat. For Greece, the questions are obvious.  Can Theofanis Gekas continue his scorching goal scoring touch from qualifications against much stiffer competition? Can a team thats only made one World Cup appearance and has never scored a finals goal really be a threat to advance? Can Greece save its country the way Michigan State basketball saved the city of Detroit in 2009? As for South Korea, I think the world soccer crowd still doubts them, shrugging off their 2002 results as they were riding amazing home field advantage and casting them aside as non-factors in this event. That all could change with three points today as it would give them a major leg up towards a spot in the Knockout Round. The Koreans do have one of the more versatile and talented midfielders in this whole tournament with Park Ji-Sung. He can control games defensively in the EPL, he can do the same in this round robin.

I really cant wait to see this Argentina/Nigeria match. If there is continent solidarity and if the Nigerians can get the support similar to the Bofanas on Day One, then we might have some interesting developments over the next couple of weeks. I am not saying look for it to push the Super Eagles to win over the Argentinians in this match, but I’m tuning in to see if it helps. If it does, then we’re going to see more African Nations make the knockout stage than most people are projecting right now. Nigeria has a lot of nice pieces, but remain a work in progress thanks to a coaching change earlier this year. Can it all come together on this stage? Its easy to be skeptical. The Super Eagles have specialized in playing to nil/nil draws of late. They shown over the last two years that they cant score goals against teams in this field. Yet they have some playmakers on the wings and strikers like Yakuba Aiyegbeni and Obatemi Martins ought to be able to drive home goals. Aiyegbeni has been scoring goals in the EPL for years, regardless of who he is playing for. Martins has always excelled in international competition. But for whatever reason, it hasnt been working on the world stage in recent years for the Super Eagles. Can the Nigerians make a stand on their home continent and reassert themselves as a world player? Read more »