Before we get too deep into the Knockout Round, let’s take the temperature of our JCB Futbol Roundtable.
First, some roster changes. Mad Magician is not with us this week. He bit on the -1300 moneyline on England beating Algeria and hasnt been heard from since. It’s been over week. Should we begin to worry? JG2112 has temporarily been taken hostage by thugs calling themselves Maradona’s Marauders. We’re efforting his release. CG is back from his Amsterdam sojourn and returns, and we’re joined WLA Warlord Chitownblue.
We’re also posting within an hour of kickoff of the US/Ghana game. We’re 1-0 today thanks to Uruguay and the magic leg of Luis Suarez, who now has 55 goals in his last 67 games played or something like that. We’ve already put catching an Ajax game or two this season on our to-do list. Back to the second game, the odds now read USA +135, Ghana +200, Draw +210. Again, these odds correspond to the final score after regulation and stoppage time. Any result in OT or a PK phase is not relevant. I see no reason to waver from my initial gut feeling. No USA game so far has been decided within the frame of a regular game. This game will be a draw, so I’m taking half the profit from the first game and taking those de facto 2/1 odds on this one needing at least OT to get a result. I still like Clint Dempsey to drill one home sometime after the 100th minute.
Alright, on to our reshuffled, but every bit as classic panel:
Ok, admit it. How many muscles did you pull jumping up and down celebrating Donovan’s goal in stoppage time? That was a ‘where were you’ type of moments, so I’d like to hear how you guys watched the game and what the various reactions were when that goal scored. I was taking the day off at home to watch, I had been sipping Bloody Mary’s most of the morning and had so much pent-up adrenaline that when they scored I actually jumped up and down so high, I scrapped my knuckles on the ceiling. What a moment.
First, some classic punk, from the Queen’s favorite rock band:
It’s the Knockout Round. Every game from here on out is single elimination, no draws allowed. Fifteen Death or Glory matches until one man is left standing hoisting the Gold Cup.
How do you like the position of the four teams in the quadrant that begins today? Uruguay, South Korea, United States and Ghana, all World Cup interloppers. Each two wins away against some combination of each other from getting into the semifinals of this tournament. A game away from playing for it all. The soccer connoisseurs may dislike this side of the bracket for its apparent ease and lack of sex appeal, but I love it. One of these teams will emerge and advance much farther than anyone could have dreamed of them doing before the tournament. Check out some of the odds on these teams more than two weeks ago on the eve of the tournament and where there are now. Also, with all four of the teams, the betting chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. on their stage of elimination was in group play for each, including a -350 price for the South Koreas. Sorry to all the folks who made that bet.
United States: 6/11 at 80/1, now 40/1.
Uruguay: 6/11 at 100/1, now 18/1
Ghana: 6/11 at 150/1, now 50/1
South Korea: 6/11 300/1, now 150/1
Those are still some pretty long odds. But think about the plush position you’d be in with one of those tickets from a bet placed the day this shindig began. You probably could start hedging your bet today. Start betting against the team, maybe even big. Even if you go 0-4, there’s still a nice profit at the end with that future bet in your pocket. Bottomline, one of the tournament longshots will come out of this quadrant, advance into the semifinals and be a game away from playing from the whole thing. The winner of a possible Netherlands-Brazil quarterfinal looms in the semi’s, but this quartet proves that Cinderella exists, and in abundance, in this World Cup. Eat your heart out March Madness.
As we head into the Knockout Round, I wonder if anyone out there took the JCB’s advice from the two pre-tournament essays we posted on the World Cup? When addressing the African Nation teams chance, we pointed folks to the prop board where you could bet which team would advance the farthest from the continent. We discarded the chances of board’s chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. Ivory Coast, instead opting to lay out equal bets on the three 4/1 shots: Cameroon, Ghana and Nigeria. Ghana is still standing. There’s a winning ticket and it nets enough of a payout to cover the other losses and still grab a 33-percent return. We’ll take that after taking some lumps. The other active future bets involve the Yanks and their stage of elimination. With tickets that see them losing in this round and in the next, we’re in good shape to turn a profit on those. The bigger payout is a quarterfinal elimination, which pays off at 5/1. I can only win money on this future tonight. I cant lose any. That’s different if the Yanks are playing on Friday. But, if they’re playing, rest assured we’ll hedge this one and put ourselves in even prettier position. Read more »
So, who is this Ghana, you speak of? First how about a reminder:
Both teams have gone through makeovers and added exciting players into their mix since then. But, a lot remains the same. Ghana’s goalie and three starters on its defensive side were on the field in Germany four years ago. For the Americans, Landon Donavan, Clint Dempsey, Carlos Bocanegra, Steve Cherunoldo and Oguchi Onyewu all were on the pitch that afternoon. They remember Ghana well and the death blow the Black Stars delivered to their hopes. . Especially Onyewu, whose questionable foul call set up what ended up as the deciding penlaty kick. These guys have dedicated four years to making up for the failures of 2006. Advancing out of group play was sweet, but they’re surely relishing the chance to make amends against the team that eliminated them in the final leg of group stage. The Americans would have advanced with a win over the Black Stars, but Ghana took a 2-1 lead with that PK in frst half stoppage time. The Yanks couldnt make up the deficit in the second half and it was Ghana, instead of the USA, that would move on. Doesn’t it say something about the state of the Nats that they’ve reached a point in their evolution where they have the chance to extract some bitter revenge in a World Cup Knockout Round? That’s progess, babby! Anway, back to our story, Who is this Ghana?
Ghana is like the Uruguay of soccer. There was a time when South American soccer was defined by La Celeste. They even won a couple of World Cups. But that was 60 years ago and the ensuing years saw their program decline, become internationally irrelevant as other superpowers emerged from their continent. There also was a time when Ghana was the program of Africa. They haven’t won an African Cup of Nations in almost 30 years, but they still have the second most title trophies on the continent. From 1963-1982, their were ten ACN contested, and the Black Stars played in the championship game six times, winning four of them. They were the program of the continent. But, like Uruguay, they proceeded to go on a long drought. They failed to qualify in several ACN tournaments. They never made the World Cup. And while they did medal at the Barcelona Olympics in 1992, they had largely been passed by other African teams like Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa, which had tickled the world’s fancy at various times as the dangerous-team-you-dont-want-to-face from the continent. Like Uruguay, Ghana’s return in 2010 to the bigtime international stage is an homage to older era of the sport.
Unlike Uruguay, Ghana isnt returning to international relevance just this year. The Black Stars are well into their Renaissance. Propelled by team members who were surprise runners-up in the 2001 Fifa Youth World Cup, Ghana opened eyes in 2005 by not losing a single international match. That helped them qualify for their first ever World Cup in 2006. They won two games in group play, including a 2-1 win over the United States, to extend their World Cup debut into the Knockout Round. They’ve reasserted their competitiveness in the ACN, finishing in third and second place in the two events held since the last World Cup. They went 9-1-1 in qualifying matches to cruise into a second straight World Cup. And, here they are again, in their second straight knockout round after a second place finish in group stage. They lost to Brazil 3-0 four years ago in this spot. A win this year, advances them a round farther than last, representing progress and another step towards what they consider their rightful place as top African dog. A title in the ACN when the competition convenes next summer in the Sudan would complete a soccer restoration on the continent a couple of generations in the making.
But, thats the future. This team has budding prospects in the present. Like everyone else in this quadrant of the bracket, they consider themselves every bit the team to beat to win two games and make a deep run here. Everyone’s expectations have changed from ‘get out of group and see what happens’ to ‘semifinals or bust.‘ Yes, they’re still without star Micheal Essien, on the shelf with an injury. But Ghana still has more than enough horses to beat the Yanks, win another game and set up a possible date with Brazil in the semis, where they can truly guage just how much of the gap they’ve closed on the international elites. Not to mention, maybe buy some enough time to get Essien healed and on the pitch.
The team is, forst and foremost, a defensive one. They’re 8-2-3 in their last 13 legit international matches, pitching eight shutouts and conceding only 7 total goals. They’ve added a shutout in these finals, earning a critical three points in a 1-0 win over Serbia. They’re more than content sinking four back and camping them out in front of keeper Richard Kingson, who plies his trade for Wigan in the EPL. And those backs in front of him all have pedigree. The corps is led by John Pantsil, whose been with the EPL for four years and plays now for Fullham, and John Mensah, who broke into the Premier League with Sunderland this year. They’ve played over 60 games for Ghana together as defenders, spearheading defensively, along with Kingson, just about every success in Ghana climb back into prominence. Hans Sarpei, with nearly 200 games in the Bundeslinga, adds more to Ghana’s fullback blockade. Read more »
A weird thing happened to me today. Maybe it was front to back listen of London Calling while blogging the night before. But, I woke up British or something this morning. How do I know? Not only did I pull a series of muscles jumping up and down like a lottery winner over a goal in a futbol match, but by the time the middle of the afternoon rolled around my TV’s transmitted, from left to right, soccer, historic Wimbledon tennis match and soccer. I had a hankering for tea by the time the tennis score reached six touchdowns apiece. I was in a downright jolly mood.
And why not. But the reality was, I was surfing a killer a Red, White and Blue wave. So while the viasge of tennis and soccer on all my TVs gave me some posh Euro look, I was true USA #1, Vote Stanzi/Lehman on the inside. The American soccer win kept a day-long, good times vibe going. Not only did they finally meet expectations on a bigtime international stage, but they did so in such dramatic fashion that celebrations, high fives and toasts should have lasted for all involved well into the summer night. You know who also is skipping today? People who either had the Yanks at better than 4/1 odds to win the Group or people who took the JCB’s advice nearly a month ago on how to bet the Yanks.
With the win, the Americans bucked and put to bed a lot of negative history pointing against them. They earned points in a third leg of a World Cup group for the first time ever. They won their first World Cup group in 80 years. They broke an 8-game winless streak against non CONCACAF teams. It was only their second World Cup win against somebody outside their own qualifying sphere since they Yanks returned to the finals stage in 1990. It was only the third World Cup in the last 60 years during which the Americans have won a game and a full three points off a match. Historic pratfalls, for at least a few days, have been squashed.
Next up: Ghana on Saturday afternoon. Go take over the world boys! Read more »
Is there a final leg in any of the eight World Cup groups as beautifully poised to provide drama than the pair of games from Group C? All four teams have a legit chance of advancing and three still could claim to be the top dog of the group when its all said and done. Actually, the same could be said for the two games in Group D later this afternoon, in what promises to be perhaps the most exciting day of the Third Leg schedule. However in that section, Germany remains the odds on favorite and heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. to win today and the group. The same can not be said for Group C.
Taking a look at it through the odds, a staple microscope here at the JCB, we see that this group pretty much remains anyone’s ball game. And that’s a far cry from how things originally stood at the window. Before the games started, England was major chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. to win this group at -333. The US were second on the board, albeit by a wide margin, at +420 with Slovenia checking in even farther back at +1000. It was the widest gap between betting favorite and #2 as well as from #2 to #3, of any of the eight World Cup groups. Now? Not so much. According to the betting public its pretty much anybody’s ball game with one leg to game. Yes, the Three Lions remain the favorite, but you’re actually getting odds on the day of the final leg instead of laying chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. and the top three teams are bunched together tighter than any of the other. The odds to win this group now read: England +120, USA +200 and Slovenia +260.
What jumps out is the fact Slovenia, the team in first place and the only one who can control their fate as far as winning this pool, remain the longshot among the three who can still win the top seed. I suppose thats because they still probably need a straight up win and three points over England in order to pull that off. In the actual match between the Three Lions and Green Dragons, the English are a chalky -250, the same price, for reference, that Argentina buyers had to pay yesterday in the match with the Greeks. Slovenia was 5/1 to win this game last night, but by this morning the whole country of England double downed on the Three Lions and Slovenia’s odds are now better than 7/1 to actually take the three points in this game.
I dont know? Do you really want to buy into the English at that price? Thats a pretty expensive risk on today’s game on a club that’s gone without a goal in over 170 minutes of play. The drama from England’s dismal tie against the Algerians continued through the weekend with player-only meetings and a gag order issued by their famed coach. Still everybody is asking what’s wrong with England? Do they have a Wayne Rooney problem? Here’s a thought: Maybe the English are a tad overrated. Actually, I know they are. Just because they were the fourth betting favorite on the board before the tournament doesnt make them the fourth best team. Hey, the Cubs have lower odds to win the World Series, in spite of their history, because delusional Cub fans have no trouble putting money on them to win it all in spring, so when it happens, they can frame the betting ticket. The whole country of England backs the Three Lions, inflating their betting prices as well as their legitmate hopes in this field. As far as the piling on Rooney, there’s a chance he may have more talented and dangerous teammates on Man U that he has with the Three Lions. Maybe the English fans owe Wayne Rooney and the Three Lions an apology.
As far as Group C is concerned, our hearts and minds are focused squarely on Team USA, and their fight to advance out of group play for the first since 2002 and for only the third time in the last 60 years. The Desert Foxes of Algeria are the Americans remaining hurdle to the Knockout Round. Despite the lack of modern World Cup pedigree, the Yanks are actually favored in the game today with Algeria. A US National Soccer team laced with favored expectations? Yikes. We saw that almost blow up on the boys last week before a stirring comeback to tie Slovenia kept not only their tournament hopes alive, but their pursuit of the top spot coming out of group. Can they handle the mantle of chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. better this time around? Or will the early, yet persistent defensive breakdowns continue to haunt the Americans? Read more »
