You have to feel a little bit bad for Chile. Anytime you have to play Spain and Brazil in consectuive matches in the World Cup, you’d like to think, expect even, that those games would be semis and finals off the tournament. Instead La Roja gets the top two teams in the world to end group play and the first Knockout game in the round of 16. For Chile it’s their first appearance this far in the tournament since 1998 when they lost in this round to guess who? Brazil. Like I said, in a way you have to feel bad for Chile.
South America has been the story of the tournament so far. For the first time, we get two of the continent’s teams going head to head. Technically speaking, we have the two best South American teams as Brazil and Chile went 1-2 in the South American qualifying for this event with Chile falling a point short of Brazil’s 36 during the 18-game qualifying schedule. Chile made some big time waves during the 2-year qualifying run. They beat Argentina, splitting their two games with Maradona’s boys. They played to a pair of draws against Uruguay, but they actually scored twice in a game against the brick wall La Celeste D. They added a win over Paraguay, all told going 2-2-2 against that trio of fellow World Cup qualifiers. So, they can play.
But one thing they havent really proven they can do is play with Brazil. The two may look neck and neck on paper when looking at the Connebol qualifying standings for the 2010 World Cup, but it might have been the widest one point margin in a soccer table that we’ve seen. In the two head to head legs, Brazil really had their way with Chile, beating them 3-0 and 4-2. Brazil has a heck of a defense, and they’re critiqued by their fans who expect both style and substance with spending too much focus on that end. But, dont tell EL Roja about their lack of substance. Brazil had three multiple goal halves against them in those matches, looking like the same high wire act on the offensive end of the pitch that we expect. In 16 legs against the rest of South American, La Roja went 10-3-3 with a +15 goal margin. In two games against Brazil, this happened:
This is the first qualifier. Luis Fabiano scored twice, along with a Rohbino tally.
Nilmar scores three goals in a 4-2 win in the team’s second leg against each other in qualifications
Give credit to Chile for fighting back in that second game. Most teams would crawl into a hole down 0-2 to Brazil, but Chile feels it has the firepower to come back on anyone. Even in their loss last week to Spain, they cut down a 2-0 deficit by a goal, despite playing down a man. And, what a goal in that second game by Jorge Valdivia. There wasnt much to like for La Roja in that first highlight clip. Well, Keeper Cladio Brava stopping a PK was impressive. He’s the team’s best defender, much like Tim Howard is the best defender for the USMNT.
This Brazilian dominance over Chile goes beyond the World Cup qualifying. Chile has only beaten Brazil seven times in the last 66 games the countries have played against each other. For the core of this year’s team, the one-sideness of the rivalry alaso reared its head in the 2007 Copa America. Brazil not only beat Chile 3-0 in Group Play, but also annihilated them 6-1 in the Knockout Round. Rohbino scored five times in those Copa America games, so between he, Fabiano and Nilmar, they’ve each tormented Chile with a big goal scoring game in recent matches. The bottomline: These clubs have played four times in major international competition in the last 36 months and all four times its been a beatdown. Brazil outscored them 16-3 with a different striker in each game crushing Chile.
So, yeah, this might not be a good matchup. Unless Chile somehow comes out, catches Brazil napping and knocks in an early goal or two, I dont see how Brazil doesn’t end this game in regulation with a comfortable win. The oddsmakers have them set at -200 to do so. While I dont endorse spending cash on expensive moneylines like that, i will say that the price is much cheaper than I expected. I would have guessed -300. At least. I wonder if their sleep walking effort in the third leg of group play against Portugal is planting doubt in the betting public’s mind? Talk about short memories. Dont forget their systematic picking apart of an attacking Ivory Coast squad that plays a very similar style of go-go-go as Chile in the second leg? I just think we’ve seen this to be a major mismatch consistenly each of the last three summers. I dont think this changes today. Brazil returns Kaka from yellow card suspension, while Chile loses two of its startering defenders and a starting midfielder for this one because of the same offenses. That cant be good.
You might want to expect more of that. Chile has collected the most cards so far this World Cup, and they collected the most cards of any country in any of the various qualifications tournaments for this field as well. When these teams met for the first leg in the South American, a total of 12 cards were passed out, with Brazil actually earning more. In both their qualifying matches at least one player from each side was run off the pitch by an official. Will similar high tempers flare in this one?
This is going to an old fashioned, intense, high flying, but high tempered South American battle. Brazil is just so much stronger on the final line of defnese with Keeper Julio Cesar and defensive backs Lucio and Macion. Inter Milan won Serie A and the Champion’s League Cup with those three anchoring the defense. Brazil looks to be more than ready to win the World Cup with those guys as well. This could be a back and forth game, Chile will counter attack, but you have to respect those guys for Brazil on the backline and their ability to eventually calm the game down if it gets too loosey-goosey and up and down the pitch. I respect what Chile has developed on their national team, but I just dont think they have the defensive and overall disciplne to get by here. I think after 60 minutes of exciting futbol, this ends up being a rout like we saw in Sunday’s games. Chile will score, maybe even twice, but Brazil will get another multiple goal win over El Roja.
