World Cup Day 6: La Celeste Of Uruguay vs South Africa Bafana Bafanas

All the first games in the eight groups are in the books.  On to the second leg of the round robins.

We start where we began the whole tournament with the host South Africans and the tight battles in the balanced, competitive Group A.  After a series of ties last Friday all four teams sit knotted at a one point apiece. The action during the first games of this round robin might not have been too inspiring to the soccer critics, but the group  remains wide open. Today and tomorrow’s games in this group represent one final shuffle in the pecking order headed into next week’s final match.

While Group A isnt the Group of Death, it does have four clubs, of of whom are Knockout Round caliber, who have a decent chance at advancing beyond this stage. Between France, Mexico, South Africa and Uruguay, its going to be a four-way fight for the top two spots. While just advancing would be a credit against this bunch, its still important how you finish. The first place team lands in a winnable area of the knockout bracket, facing beatable teams like Nigeria, South Korea, England or the US in the second and quarterfinal rounds. The winner of this group could be considered a favorite to make it to the semifinals. While qualifying for the second round in second place out of this group is an accomplishment, the reward is an elimination match with Argentina. So those are the stakes as the Group’s second leg begins later today. Tomorrow, France and Mexico square off.  This afternoon’s contest features South Africa and Uruguay. Let’s take a deeper look at that match.

South Africa and Uruguay won with draws on the opening day of the tournament and will try to carry the momentum to more points this evening. Differing opinions are easy to find for this match. Inside Futbol calls for a South African win, while the crew at thesportscampus have called for a  Uruguay win.  Oddsmakers have made Uruguay a slight favorite tonight at +145 with the South Africans paying out +210 should they win. Uruguay has moved from third favorite on the board to win this group to the second favorite behind France. Considering this club barely made the World Cup field, doing so after finishing in fifth place in their qualification pool and winning a 2-game playoff spot for one of the final spots, their climb into contention has been revealing.

Everyone knows the story of the South Africans. Host country, unknown talents, a chorus of vuvvuzelas serenading their every move. Like every other host country before them, they earned at least a point in their opening World Cup match. Can they continue to ride history and advance out of Group Play like every other host country before them. Accused of being the weakest home country ever before the games, the Bafanas went a long way towards taking down that meme with their draw against the talented Mexicans in the opener. They can all but kill that with three points against the nasty, defensive minded Light Blues of Uruguay.

A DOMINANT, LIGHT BLUE SHADE OF DEFENSE

Uruguay’s defense is the real deal. They’re physical, constantly getting in the way of the rush and havent met a ball they wont challenge. The defense has carried Uruguay to the point where they’re legit threats to go deep into this bracket. Nobody in South America, save for the Brazlians, really solved this defense during qualifcations. They muscled out eight shutouts in qualification, blankings of Chile and Paraguay included. Uruguay’s D is on its A-game so much that fullback Diego Lugano pitched in with the decisive goal, his fifth of the qualification run, in the playoff showdown with Costa Rica for the final spot from the sectional.  In their tournament opener last week, they made it nine whitewashes this World Cup tour with an impressive lockdown of the French. The French had the ball a lot, but Uruguay forced them out of their comfort zone for much of the action and the French’s chances at the goal werent all that great. Light blue roadblocks where everywhere. Diego Godin and Alvaro Pereira had great days, so much so that the typical, steady, mistake free play of Lugano was an afterthought. I dont think there is a team in this entire World Cup field that has better defensive chemistry than Uruguay. They always were in position against the French, helped each other and everytime the French seemed to be a on break, a group of Light Blue defenders always seemed prepared to swoop in to minimize the danger. They went into the game with the French thinking no worse than nil/nil draw because they knew they could pull it off. Dont be surprised to see them toss another shutout in group play as the obstinant Uruguayian defense takes them into the Knockout Round

Will either of these teams scoring stars come through?

Uruguay has one of the best striker duos in the field with Diego Forlan and Luis Salazar. But thats all the offense they have, especially in light of the red carded Nicolas Lidiero’s suspension. The reason Uruguay was in such shaky qualification position was because the attack doesnt have much after their two strikers. Its hard enough to score in soccer, but when only two of your eleven guys on the pitch can really score, then you’re going to have problems. And they did, losing out on a bunch of points in 0-0, 0-1 finals during the qualification run.  Forlan and Suarez need to deliver. Forlan has scored 56 goals the last two seasons for Atletico Madrid in the Spanish League, while Suarez scored 33 goals in 35 club games for the Dutch team Ajax this season. Prolific goal scorers on the club level, they’ve been quiet for long stretches of international play. They werent invisible against France, however. Forlan may have the two best chances of the whole game, but just missed on both. Those have to find the back of the net today.

As for South Africa, their top gun Steven Pienaar vows to keep pushing despite tired legs. He was replaced early on the opener, running out of gas, perhaps feeling the effect of a long season with his EPL Club Everton. Is he since recharged enough to go longer and have a bigger impact on todays game? They need a full game out of him if they’re serious about advancing out of group play. Picking up the slack is Katlego Mphela whose rocket hit the post in stoppage time or else South Africa emerges with a win in the opener. Rumored to be heading to the EPL with a strong tournament, can he get a great look again and will he bury it? Can Siphiwe Tshabalala, the hero of the draw with the Mexicans, score another and become the first player in the field with multiple goals?

DOES URUGUAY CHANGE STRATEGY?

Uruguay had scouted out France perfectly. They sank five fulltime defenders back with two holding midfielders, playing a defense first, we’re fine with a draw gameplan. They can easily do the same here, but at some point, they’ll need to pick up a win and some goals. A nil/nil draw would be ok for South Africa to an extent, but it would push Uruguay into a corner. Would you want to enter the last game of group with just two points, no goals and a game with Mexico ahead? I wouldnt. Uruguay could really use some wins and some goals, or they will rue the tiebreakers. With South Africa not providing the top to bottom offensive threats as the French, how will Uruguay open up their game? They have to provide Forlan and Suarez some support up front. They can take advantage of this defense if they do provide more offensive support. The question is does Uruguay coach Oscar Taberez loosen up the defensive reigns to allow for a more offensive game for the LIght Blues? The pregame  indications would point to yes. Tabarez has said he plans on starting Edinson Cavani on the front line with Forlan and Suarez. He’s netted 27 goals the last two seasons for Palermo and his spot in the starting 11 is a sign that the defensive first organization knows it needs to get some tallies in order to advance.

As for the Bafana Bafana side, they are on a 13-match unbeaten streak and boosted by home pitch advantage may have caught some sports magic in a bottle. Its another moment of truth for South Africa.  We wondered last week how ready to wear they would be when the bright lights were on. They passed. Now comes a stiff test after days of being heralded across the country. The question has gone from how would they handle the stage to how will they respond to success and expectations. They’re going to need every bit of energy from their home crowd because playing Uruguay takes it out on you. Can the raining hum of vuvuzuelas inspire them to a late, decisive chance?  The South Africans are confident heading into their match with Uruguay.  We’ll see if they have the mettle going up against one of the best defensive outfits in the field.  The draw with Mexicowas  a fair result to earn. A draw today, while not awe inspiring, isnt a bad result. It keeps them ahead of Uruguay in the pecking order going into the final game, but they’ll more than likely be ahead of at least one of France and Mexico as well. A tie paints Urugay into a corner, especially a scoreless one, but a draw sets the Bafanas up to control their own fate during the last leg of group play. That indeed would be a story.

SO WHAT HAPPENS?

Well, I am not breaking any ground by foreseeing a tight game. It’s soccer. All these games are tight. 

I like Uruguay to overcome the home pitch advantage and come away with a win and the full three points. I just like this defense so much. France didnt get any great scoring chances outside of the booming free kick leg of Gourcuff. I dont think the Bafanas Bafanas will solve the defense either. La Celeste have blanked Chile, Paraguay and now France within the last calendar year, all more dangerous offensive outfits than the South Africans, and they appear to be playing stingier than ever before now that the finals are underway.

Uruguay has not scored a first half goal in a World Cup game since 1986. That streak breaks today. South Africa struggled with Mexico’s forward line during the first half, but the Mexicans couldnt take advantage. Uruguay’s dynamic striker duo will. Forlan will get the same kind of chances he did against the French, but this time around will bury the ball in back of the net late in the first half.  At that point, the Uruguay defense takes over the game and ratchets things up a notch. Despite their draw last week against Mexico, South Africa was terrible at possessing the ball. They wont be any better at it against La Celeste. Unlike the Mexicans, the Light Blues of Uruguay wont suffer breakdowns that led to Bafana Bafana offense. Uruguay picks up another shutout during their 2010 World Cup tour and moves a big step closer to the knockout round. Book It.

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