World Cup Day One: Group A, Mathletes And Oddsmakers Disagree

I wont lie. I am more pumped than ever before for Soccer and this World Cup event beginning today. I have never been a soccer guy, but have always enjoyed the World Cup ever since catching the fever when the event performed in the States back in 1994. That was the first summer after I graduated from college. I hadnt really figured out a fulltime working situation yet, and the soccer kept me enthralled during what still was a summer vacation for me. The Americans unexpected run into the Knockout Rounds before losing to Brazil certainly helped maintain my fledgling enthusiasm. I was taken by Nigeria and the Soaring Eagles run in 1998 and remember watching agape as the hometown French dismantled Brazil for an emotional championship. I was living in Chicagi in 2002 and went to all sorts of Irish pubs during breakfast hours with my journalism colleagues who were soccer buffs. Nothing beats an Irish Car Bomb and a win over Mexico subbing in for coffeee and working a city council beat. I dont have many memories of the 2006 event, and I dont really know why. My guess is I wasnt around soccer people and since its not a big sport of interest of mine, it was easy to pay casual attention and retain nothing of the proceedings.  I going to make sure that doesnt happen this go around. I plan on watching a whole mess of soccer the next month.

I’m lost in this sport. I cant speak the language, but I’ve been trying my best to study up the last couple of weeks. And, I’ve realized how much I should like soccer. There are games and all sorts of different leagues going on seemingly all the time. I love a sport in college football where teams just play a dozen times. I am beginning to grasp all the exciting different venues bigtime soccer in played out on and there’s tons of games. The mega ‘I LIKE SPORTS’ fan in me loves that, my craving of high stakes athletic contests loves that and ,well, there are odds everywhere so the gambling man in me loves that. If the next month is as exciting as it seems to promise on paper, soccer may have a permanent fan at the Just Cover Blog.

Despite that you’re clearly not coming to me for amazing insights on the sport to help cut through the fat of the dizzying array of matchups on the board. I have enlisted some legit soccer fans and they’ll be helping out, including what I hope to be the first of several roundtables during the next month which we will post later today. Hopefully between their expertise and my own insights we can keep you informed and maybe find us all a winner or two. I am undaunted by being a novice in this sport I have been  smoking  bowls of Vulture  all week, and I am ready to make off-the-cuff, hopefuly-ignorance-is-bliss predictions thoughtout the month.

So where to begin? How about with the novel concept of looking at the actual games being played today. After weeks of endless hype, we finally get to see some action today. And the Group A games, South Africa vs Mexico and Uruguay vs France,  that kick off the tournament today ought to be nailbiters.  This group may not be able to claim top billing as the Group of Death the way groups CDand G can, but there is no other group that ought to be as competitive from top to bottom as this quartet. France, Mexico and Uruguay are countries with high expectations for their national team and advancement out of group play is but the baseline of those dreams. Throw in the fact the history that backs lightly regarded South Africa–every host country has advanced out of a group play–and you have four teams capable of earning points in every round robin and sneaking into the knockout stage.

What I like about this draw is how different the mathletes and the oddsmakers assess this group. As a bettor, that tells me we could find some sneaky bets as this round robin plays out. In one corner, the statistical analysts peg Uruguay as the favorite to win this group with their 34 percent chance at winning, 61 percent at advancing the most likely outcomes during their number crunching.  Next in line, per their numbers, is France, Mexico and South Africa. This is surprising because while Uruguay was the original soccer world power, this is only their fourth World Cup in the last 35 years and really have no outstanding results since winning this field in 1950. However its clearly a program on the rise having not only qualified for this field but also reaching the semifinals of the last Copa America draw. These performance odds represent that ascension. Think of this team, however, as what traditional NBA contenders have looked like. Go through those history books and notice how many contending teams leaned on a Big 3. Well Uruguay has that with Diego Forlan, one of the world’s most explosvie scorers, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro. These three can really rule a round robin if they’re playing at their highest level at the same time. Can they do that? Can they get enough from their supporting cast that’s not nearly as deep as France and Mexico? The number crunchers say go ahead and Book It.

But, the betting public isnt buying. At least not from the perspective of winning their pool. The French are the favorites within the seedy gambling crowd, so much so that their payout to claim the top spot in this group is just +120. Uruguay isnt even second on the board. That would be the Mexicans at +275, followed by Uruguay, +375 and the longshot South Africans +550. By just about every metric in the sportsbook, Uruguay is not only not the favorite, but they’re expected to be eliminated during the group play. You need to lay out a chalky -133 to get a betting ticket on that prop.

Throw the matchups out. The difference between the math and the betting odds makes the nightcap in today’s opening doubleheader all the more juicy when Uruguay and France tilt. There are strong indicators that Uruguay can not only win, but ought to do no worse than advance. That tells us their chances at scoring points in all three matches is strong. Yet, the Charruas are a hefty 2.55/1 to win this game and still pays better than 2/1 odds to earn a point with a draw at +220. Put a dollar on each and if one of those two results happen, you’ll come out ahead of the house.

The renowned number crunchers think Uruguay is the best team. To me, this is what these math formulas are for, predicting an outcome that differs wildly from the odds used to entice the money burning bettors. I’m with the math on this one. France may be a false favorite today. The team looks to be in disarray. They hate their coach. Nobody seems to like each other. Have we had teams point fingers at each other before a tournament even begins? By all accounts they’ve cruised on apathy leading up to the finals. I get the feel this team, while uber talented, just has the look of a #2 seed in the Stanley Cup playoffs that only after the fact does it make perfect sense they got bounced in the opening round. I  think Uruguay is more fine tuned right now. They’re going to come right out and be the aggressor in the early going. If they can find the back of the net during this time and keep momentum, I think they’re getting three points. There are higher underdog payouts, but I dont know if there is a fiestier puppy on the board who can just as easily win their match than Uruguay today. I am taking a chance on it.

Of course, the first game of the day and the first game of the whole tournament, involves the home town South Africans taking on Mexico. Want to talk history? How about the fact that teams playing in their home country in thr World Cup are 14-0-5 in their tournament opener. Thats no worse than a point every single time. It’s telling that if you place an even amount bet on South Africa to win and on them to draw, you wont make a profit even if one of those outcomes comes home. Oddsmakers nearly have this one to close to call with Mexico +150 to win and South Africa +175, a number thats actually gone down as the money thats come in during the last couple of days has been tilted towards the Bofanas. With a draw paying +215, there’s no way to bet two outcomes and come out ahead if one wins. No worries there, however, as its a rare bird to find any game where thats both possible and you feel strongly about playing it.

I just like this game because we’re going to see just what sort of home field advantage South Africa will have.  They have a couple of nice players on their team whose talent can ride the crescendo of the vuveulas and play with anyone in this group if they play their A game. We’ll see if they can turn it into a reality against a Mexican team whose young for this stage, but went through an arduous stretch of friendlies in advance of the finals. Hell, they endured a gauntlet just to qualify a process that at various times had them on the brink of elimination while chewing through a couple of coaches. But now they’ve got Javier Aguirre at the controls who prodded and eased Brazil to their 1994 Championship. Can he pull together a team long on talent, but often short on International results? We know the Mexicans still smart from their last two World Cup eliminations, a shoddy looking loss to the Americans in 2002 and the wrong end of a miracle goal in overtime against Argentina in 2006. Both came in the Round of 16. To not even get that far this year would be a disaster. Drop one to the home standing Bofanas and they’re all but drawing dead. Even settling for a tie would create a fight in the next two games against better teams creating a steeper uphill climb they faced after their early qualifying hole last summer.

To prep, they’ve played a ton of games. Eight matches since the beginning of May, going 5-2-1 in the process. And they werent playing patsies on the outside looking in on the World Cup field. They’ve played England, Holland and Italy in the last 20 days, beating the latter. A lot of World Cup rookies raked in the experience against the world’s best in recent weeks. I actually like this strategy given their draw. No other favorite will be playing a more emotionally charged team than the Mexicans in their opener game. And they need to ensure points. They might have been overworked, but the sharpness and the ability to adjust their game from self scouting all those games might make them more ready from the jump in such a charged venue that we’ll see in Capetown.  Javier Hernandez and Alberto Medina have had the scoring touch during the national team’s entire international friendly stretch this year. I think that continues today and at least one of them finds the back of the net in this one. I dont think South Africa has the firepower to net multiple goals. It’s 1-1 draw or bust for them this afternoon.  I hate going against the history that every host country has earned a point in their World Cup opener, but I just think Mexico will be ready today. They’ll get a late goal and a 2-1 win.

It’s opening day of the World Cup. I dont know any of the players, even with a program. I’ve got Mexico,+150 and Uruguay, +255 both to win. In a late addition, I also wrapped both to win in a parlay at 8/1 odds, as well as a draw in the Mexico/South Africa game with a Uruguay win at 13/1 odds. What could go wrong? Book it.

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