As a college football nut, its a long offseason. But I think there’s a nice chronology of sports in the upcoming several weeks to keep us occupied until summer hits a peak. When that happens, I have way too much being outdoors that time flies at its fastest. But I always wonder about staying interested as a sports fan until summer comes around. Well, no fear for the rest of this month. We have reached the Final Four in both the NBA and NHL playoffs. Three of those series begin today. They will last the rest of the month. If any of these series goes deep and needs sixth and seventh games, they will be played over Memorial Day weekend. High stakes in the middle of the table at the highest levels of their sports for the rest of May. These games will be better than the finales of all your television shows this month. Yes, even yours Lost fans.
Do I have picks for these? Of course I do. Lets start with hockey.
We could not have a more different pair of conference finals in the NHL. In the West, we have the top two seeds duking it out in battle of chalk. In the East, we have, believe it or not, the bottom two seeds, on only in the conference, but also in the whole tournament, in the ultimate underdog crashing the gates party.
It’s beginning to feel a bit like 1993 again for the Canadiens. Hard to believe its been 17 years since they last won it all, but the Habs are in their best position since to finally add to their NHL leading engravings on the Cup. The one comparison to 1993 that jumps out at me is the hero leading the skate for Montreal. In 1993, it was the former American college star John LeClair, from Vermont, that seemed to score game winner after game winner as the Habs navigated several overtime wins before taking down Gretszy, Melrose and the Kings in five games in the final. This year, the magic stick has been former American college star Mike Cammalleri whose 12 goalsis are by far the most in the postseason. This Michigan booster wants to remind everyone that Cammalleri skated for the Wolverines during his college days. In a final four without my Red Wings, thats reason enough to pull for the Canadiens. Well, that and it gives us even more chances to bet the over on number of downtown Montreal arrests in the wake of every game. Trust me, its a profit maker. Its still would be pretty cool to see a Wolverine hoist the Conn Smythe Trophy next month and thats where Cammalleri is heading should the Canadiens win eight more games. While his teammate Jaraslav Halak is the 5/1 favorite to win that MVP hardware, the winger is among a slew of forwards plucked from the remaining contestants like Danny Briere, Joe Pavelski and Danny Toewes among others with payouts between 7/1 and 10/1. I still think Halak, as the goalie, would win it should the tournaments worst seed end up winning the cup. But, if they get that far and Cammalleri keeps up this scoring pace, voters may have to reconsider going with the default hot goalie route. Any time you’re threatening to break a revered postseason record for Les Habitants, you’re in rarified territory worthy of MVP consideration.
The Habs are the 16th out of 16 seeds. They beat the Presidents Cup winner in Round One. They beat the defending champs in the Round Two. They won two seventh games on the road. They knocked out the league’s two biggest stars Ovechkin and Crosby over the course of the last month of hockey. Yet, they’re playoff run may be less improbable that of their opponent today. The Flyers are the 15th seed overall in this field, yet werent even in the playoffs on the final day of the season. They werent even in the playoffs with 10 minutes to go in their final game, down a goal to the Rangers in a winner-take-all match for the last spot. But, they tied the game late, ultimately winning in a shootout. After dispatching the 103-point Devils with ease in the first round, they fell into an 0-3 hole against the Bruins. What did they do? They switched goalies, ripped off three wins in a row and then after falling behind by 3 goals in the seventh and deciding game rallied to stun Boston and win the game and the series. Now, they have home ice advantage in the conference finals. How bizarre. How Stanley Cup Playoffs. Mike Cammalleri meet Chris Pronger. Thats the matchup to watch at home.
Both these teams have pulled in a nice profit this spring. Had you been betting $100 unist on each Canadien game during the postseason, you’d be up a guady $1,180, despite their 8-6 record. They have had several nice single game payouts, especially with five road wins over heavy chalk Washington and Pittsburgh. The Flyers are 8-4 and have cashed a total $495 on the $100 unit scale. By not riding the two teams with the lowest point total in this tournament, we missed a golden goose. Sigh. This could be a fun series. The Canadiens brought their hate, so tonight’s first game in Phily ought to be testy.
The Pick: Montreal, -115, to win the series…..two years ago, the Flyers blizted the east top seed Canadiens in the second round 4 games to 1. We’re thinking that was a different set of circumstances, rather than a bad matchup for the Canadiens. Besides, Montreal has gone 5-3 against the Flyers in head to heads since then and have won seven of the last 10 games played in Philadelphia. Both have outskated expectations this spring, but I think the Canadiens are playing better. Their takedowns of the Caps and Pens were more impressive, despite the Flyers bucking history and coming back from an 0-3 hole. The Bruins were just mediocre enough to allow that to happen. Montreal is playing at a higher level. And I give Halak the edge in between the pipes. It just feels like a Habitant spring. They keep it rolling.
Dont let the sound of Chicago vs San Jose fool you. Nor the missing presence of the Red Wings. This is a true heavyweight fight. The Sharks had 113 points. The Blackhawks had 112 points. All season, these two looked to be the cream of the west. Unlike the east, form held and this should give us a taste of hockey at its highest form over the next two weeks.
The spotlight is finally shining brightly on San Jose. As a result, we’re wondering if the Sharks are finally breaking through? They had become the Utah Jazz of the NHL, always putting together flashy regular season marks, but never making much of a dent in the postseason. Victims of an upset when seeded high, never playing past their seed when not, San Jose has now won two playoff series for only the second time in the same post season in franchise history. Since 2003, the Sharks have averaged 108 points a season. Only the Red Wings have been better during that time in the whole league, yet this is only their second conference finals during that span. Dont forget, if you buy the Jazz comparison that Utah did put it all together in back to back springs and made a pair of NBA finals. The Sharks could be on the verge off something similar. Unlike the Jazz, no Michael Jordan presence stands in their way after this. For one of the more elite regular season teams of the last decade, this is as close to winning the Cup as they’ve ever been. Can they take the next step?
For most of the last decade, the Blackhawks have been a dormant franchise, often competing for last place with one of the worst records in the league. From 1998-2008, the Hawks somehow managed to qualify for the playoffs just once: ousted in a forgettable four game sweep against the Blues in the first round. That all changed last season with a Renaissance season, earning 104 regular season points and skating to the Western Confernece Finals. A great season ended with their playoff youth working against them. The seasoned Wings made most of the big plays in the third periods and dispatched the Hawks in five games. Now they’re back in the conference finals, amid their best era since the early 1990s with the Jeremy Roenick, Chris Chelios and Eddie Belfour heyday. That club peaked with an appearance in the 1992 Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Mario, Jaromir and the Pens. That’s the only finals this team has played in decades and they havent won a Cup since 1967. A hockey mad town can taste an historical championship. The real playoffs for Chicago begins today. I’m obviously pulling for Montreal in the other series, and part of me wants to Chicago prevail here because a Canadien/Blackhawk Original Six Cup Finals would be classic between two bigtime hockey towns.
The Pick: San Jose in 7 games, 3.5/1; Chicago in 7 games, 4/1, 1 Unit each…….here’s the deal: this will be a long series. Both teams have too much talent and are playing too well to be best by either in a blowout. The Blackhawks have been great on the road, winning five straight on enemy ice in the postseason. They’ll get the split in San Jose and the long series will be on. I just cant see either team having a chance to close this series out before the sixth game. If it goes seven, we’ll more than double this investment, regardless of who wins. And, we’ll have a chance to hedge during any possible elimination matches prior to any game seven if need be. I’m going to sit back and pull for the talent on each team to counter punch each other over the next two weeks until we have a deciding game. Gave 7 is in 13 days. We’ll revisit this talk Memorial Day Weekend.
I dont really have much to say on the NBA. I dont follow the regular season to speak with any expertise and rarely gamble on it. From my public, casual opinion, there’s no way we’re not heading towards an Orlando-Los Angeles rematch in the NBA Finals. I’d love to see the Suns topple the Lakers, but I just dont think they have enough game to best them four times out of seven games. I have fallen too much in love with Orlando to think Boston has a chance. This team is impressive. And, as of this morning, technically the favorite to win it all. At 1.5/1, they are chalk among the NBA’s Final Four with the Lakers checking in at 1.8/1. Dont forget, the Magic won 61 games and will have home court advantage in the Finals should they advance.
Both teams are heavy favorites to win these conference finals. In the exact games prop, chalk for both is to eliminate their foes in five games, with the Magic in 5 at 2.5/1 and the Lakers in 5 at 3/1. If you had $600 burning a hole in your off shore account, bet $340 on the Lakers and $260 on the Magic to win their series, regardless of number of games. Each pays off $100. When they both cash, you will have earned a 33-percent return on the investment. Or just parlay them together. If some ambitious and more wealthy sole came to me and said they two grand what could they do during these playoff series to ensure a profit. I would say let it ride on a parlay on both the Magic and Lakers to win these series.. The payout isnt very parlayish at 4/5 odds, but I think its a winner. It pays out an 80-percent return of the original investment and how many stocks on Wall Street would you feel as confident in doing that between now and the end of the month? I would ignore hockey and just do that. Its more aggressive, a bit riskier, but a more compelling payout in the end. So, I’ll do just that. Well except for ignoring the hockey. Oh, and I wont be dropping two dimes on it either. A couple units though is already booked.
The Pick: Parlaying Orlando and LA to win their series, 2 Units to win 1.6 Units.
There you go. Some investment action. More advice? Work hard, hit the gym harder and then relax at home each night the next couple of weeks with some brew doggers and watch these series play out. I’m sure I wont be able to resist and I’ll add some actual single game bets. I have the Twitter all charged up and ready to go to spread the word when that happens.
