Monthly Archives: May 2010

Estimated Prophets Seeks Sip From Cup

May 29, 2010
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2010 Stanley Cup Finals

Two old school, North American style playing hockey teams meet to begin the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. But their paths couldnt have been more different.

The Blac hawks have been Cup contenders all year, after their breakout a year ago and conference finals appearance. They excelled all season long throwing up a guady 112 points. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa give them star power and explosive scoring. Kris Versteeg, Dave Bolland and Andrew Ladd give them a a third line that’s dominating defensively after stoning the Sharks. Duncan Keith and Dustin Byfuglien give them a great blue line pair. They’re deep, can score, beat you up and take you down in any style of game you want to play. Antii Niemi has come through for them in their playoffs and their regular season dominance has carried over this spring. They’re heavy favorites to take the series at -240.

In addition to the burden of chalk, their also carrying the weight of one of the longest remaining championship droughts. We mocked the Rangers and Red Wings in the 1990s until they snapped their 54 and 42 year Cup winning droughts. Why arent we LOLing louder as the Hawks approach 50 years since their last win in 1961? Maybe its because the franchise has been so bad in recent years. The Hawks added more than a decade to their drought toiling in irrelevance going years between playoff berths until last year’s arrival as a force. Hockey is a tradition in Chicago, and the town is geeked up to see one its grandest franchises finally play for it all. Most of this franchise’s classic highlights occurred in the black and white film era. This is a chance to rebrand the franchise as a champion. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Gets Friendly, Stares At Week One NFL Lines

May 24, 2010
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We threw around a lot of numbers, odds and uninformed soccer opinions yesterday about the Americans and their chances in Group C. Over the next two days we get to see the two main players in that group in warm up games. England plays Mexico later today and American matches with the Czechs tomorrow night in international friendlies as they work to iron out all the kinks in advance of next month’s World Cup in South Africa. I am not sure what we can learn about Team USA or Team England from these matches, but if I’m going to speak soccer neckbeard over the next month, its probably worth my time to watch. And, of course, they do have odds on these matches, and I dont really need more than that to become interested in any sporting event.

One of the Yanks primary goals in tomorrow’s match: avoiding more injuries. Team USA also has a friendly on each of the next two Saturdays in advance of the World Cup. They play the Turks this week, while next Satuday, they will exhibition with fellow World Cupper Australia. The third Saturday from now will be their World Cup opener against the Brits. Of course, there’s more than just dodging the injury bug at stake against the Czechs tomorrow night. Currently the Nationals are carrying 30 players, but coach Bob Bradley has said they wll pare that down to the official of roster of 23 after tomorrow’s friendly. Translation: Its final cut day. The Americans are -111 to beat the Czechs tomorrow night, with a Draw netting 2.2/1 and a Czech win 2.8/1.

The England match today has some intruigue because they’re playing Mexico. Hey soccer fans, is this like when Notre Dame and OSU play in football? Kidding aside, its one of the few friendlies on the schedule between not just World Cup teams, but squads expecting to advance. England Coach Fabio Capello will experiment in the friendly today and dont expect any of their players who ran in the European Championship game over the weekend to play. Interestingly, the odds on this match are about the same as the one between England and USA to open the World Cup. Mexico, like the Americans, are 5/1 to beat the Brits. Despite playing with the lineup and resting some important guns, England is chalier against the Mexicans than they will be against the Yanks. Today’s price on England is -222, while next month against the Americans is it “just” -188. A draw today pays out at 2.8/1. I cant possibly commit to an actual pick, but isnt risking that much on England to win given they wont put their best team on the field somewhat reckless? Maybe take a flier on a draw, if you must. England, like the US, has a couple more friendlies before the games begin. We’re watching primarily to see if we can learn anything about soccer and these teams. And to see if these games impact the odds at all on the Main Event in South Africa.

Speaking of friendlies, one was already played today between fellow World Cup teams as South Korea topped Japan 2-0. My only take on that is that the Koreans are in Group B with heavy chalk Argentina. The other three clubs–South Korea, Greece and Nigeria–have all been noticeably inconsistent in recent years. Did South Korea turn a corner? They dont fare too well in international play off their own continent, but they are as good a bet as anybody else to come in second place in that group and advance.  Maybe a play with 3.5/1 odds on them being eliminated in the Round of 16 is worth a look?

A GAMBLER’S MONEY KNOWS NO HOME Read more »

How The Odds Stack Up For The Yanks

May 23, 2010
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US Men's National Team

Do you want to make a ton of money on next month’s World Cup with little investment? Why not take a $10 flier on the tournament championship game to eventually pit Brazil against Team USA?  Such an outcome pays out 100/1, according to Sportsbook.com, so your ten bucks can turn into a grand over the course of a few short weeks. Beat that stock market! Now, the catch is the Yanks have to reel of an unprecedented run in World Cup play to get to a final. After all, the Yanks are 66/1 to win the whole thing and still 28/1 to even make it to the final game. So dont go spending that grand just yet. But, if you must bet the World Cup, and if your jingoistic side demands some investment in the Good ‘Ole USA, then there are plenty of more reasonable, more winnable games out there to play. None will pay off as juicy as the above 100/1 shot, but these would actually have a chance at winning. That’s a fair trade off, right? Anyway, lets take a look at some of the basic bets and odds available on the United States in the 2010 World Cup.

Even though their first game remains more than a couple of weeks away, you can already place on bet on any of the three Team USA games in group play. Actually, every single game in all eight of the groups are already on the big board, so if you like a particular matchup, go ahead and play it now before the odds change. For now, lets just focus on the three matches involving the Yanks.

Team USA opens their World Cup pursuit with a juicy match against England on the second day of the whole tournament.  A rivalry that dates back to Lexington and Concord manifests itself on soccer’s brightest international stage, giving the opening days of the event some buzz from some of world’s biggest media epicenters.  In the realm of soccer, however Team USA’a  history against England is spotty at best. Even if it did occur in a World Cup match, its never good when your best moment against a rival occurred more than half century ago when the Yanks topped the Three Lions in the 1950 event. America didnt even qualify for the event for the next 40 years and, outside of that 1950 victory, they havent really beaten England. The last two matches between the two, England cruised to wins. The odds reflect that history. America is 5/1 to beat England in this match. To put that in perspective, thats a better payout than you can get with upset wins by Chile over Spain, Greece over Argentina, Serbia over Germany and Ivory Coast over Brazil. In this match, a draw plays out 2.8 to 1, while on an English win you must wager 188 to win 100 on the -188 moneyline.

The Yanks are favored in each of their other two matches in group play. In their second game against Slovenia, Team USA still pays out better than even odds for a win. A win nets a +115 payout. Hey now, at least thats better than laying juice and losing. This is expected to be a tight game as a Slovenia win only pays out 2.2 to 1. In a game with such tight odds between the teams to win, you think a draw would be chalk, yet at 2.3/1 an even game actually has the biggest payout in this match. Based on that, I’m guessing there are nuances to grasping soccer lines that a novice like myself cant even begin to unravel at this point. In Game 3, the Americans are a slightly juicy -145 to win against the Algerians. A draw is 2.5/1 while an Algeria win pays out at 3.75 to 1.

THE ODDS OF BEING DOWN WITH PARLAYING IT! Read more »

NHL, NBA Final Fours Begin, You Must Book Something!!

May 16, 2010
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As a college football nut, its a long offseason. But I think there’s a nice chronology of sports in the upcoming several weeks to keep us occupied until summer hits a peak. When that happens, I have way too much being outdoors that time flies at its fastest. But I always wonder about staying interested as a sports fan until summer comes around. Well, no fear for the rest of this month. We have reached the Final Four in both the NBA and NHL playoffs. Three of those series begin today. They will last the rest of the month. If any of these series goes deep and needs sixth and seventh games, they will be played over Memorial Day weekend.  High stakes in the middle of the table at the highest levels of their sports  for the rest of May. These games will be better than the finales of all your television shows this month. Yes, even yours Lost fans.

Do I have picks for these? Of course I do. Lets start with hockey.

We could not have  a more different pair of conference finals in the NHL. In the West, we have the top two seeds duking it out in battle of chalk. In the East, we have, believe it or not, the bottom two seeds, on only in the conference, but also in the whole tournament, in the ultimate underdog crashing the gates party.

It’s beginning to feel a bit like 1993 again for the Canadiens. Hard to believe its been 17 years since they last won it all, but the Habs are in their best position since to finally add to their NHL leading engravings on the Cup. The one comparison to 1993 that jumps out at me is the hero leading the skate for Montreal. In 1993, it was the former American college star John LeClair, from Vermont, that seemed to score game winner after game winner as the Habs navigated several overtime wins before taking down Gretszy, Melrose and the Kings in five games in the final. This year, the magic stick has been former American college star Mike Cammalleri whose 12 goalsis are by far the most in the postseason. This Michigan booster wants to remind everyone that Cammalleri skated for the Wolverines during his college days. In a final four without my Red Wings, thats reason enough to pull for the Canadiens. Well, that and it gives us even more chances to bet the over on number of downtown Montreal arrests in the wake of every game. Trust me, its a profit maker.  Its still would be pretty cool to see a Wolverine hoist the Conn Smythe Trophy next month and thats where Cammalleri is heading should the Canadiens win eight more games. While his teammate Jaraslav Halak is the 5/1 favorite to win that MVP hardware,  the winger is among a slew of forwards plucked from the remaining contestants like Danny Briere, Joe Pavelski and Danny Toewes among others with payouts between 7/1 and 10/1. I still think Halak, as the goalie, would win it should the tournaments worst seed end up winning the cup. But, if they get that far and Cammalleri keeps up this scoring pace, voters may have to reconsider going with the default hot goalie route. Any time you’re threatening to break a revered postseason record for Les Habitants, you’re in rarified territory worthy of MVP consideration.

The Habs are the 16th out of 16 seeds. They beat the Presidents Cup winner in Round One. They beat the defending champs in the Round Two. They won two seventh games on the road. They knocked out the league’s two biggest stars Ovechkin and Crosby over the course of the last month of hockey. Yet, they’re playoff run may be less improbable that of their opponent today. The Flyers are the 15th seed overall in this field, yet werent even in the playoffs on the final day of the season. They werent even in the playoffs with 10 minutes to go in their final game, down a goal to the Rangers in a winner-take-all match for the last spot. But, they tied the game late, ultimately winning in a shootout. After dispatching the 103-point Devils with ease in the first round, they fell into an 0-3 hole against the Bruins. What did they do? They switched goalies, ripped off three wins in a row and then after falling behind by 3 goals in the seventh and deciding game rallied to stun Boston and win the game and the series. Now, they have home ice advantage in the conference finals. How bizarre. How Stanley Cup Playoffs. Mike Cammalleri meet Chris Pronger.  Thats the matchup to watch at home. Read more »

Here's Hoping For A Game Six On Monday

May 8, 2010
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Remember when I was going to blog the Stanley Cup playoffs on a daily basis? Yeah, about that. The next event that I cant wait to blog about, but will probably end up being too busy to figure out a blogging schedule will be next month’s soccer World Cup. So, stay tuned. I do promise to write some about the playoffs the rest of the way and hopefully more than some about the soccer. Mostly, though, we’ve started the back half of the long, often mindless college football offseason. With that, now that the gas tank of energy has been filled up in my brain, expect to see a return to at least semi-regular posting next week as we begin looking towards the 2010 football season, both college and pro, with an occassional college hoop thrown thrown in the mix. For now, we’re still on hockey and  pulling like mad for the  beloved Red Wings to somehow pull some history out of their hat. The climbed the first rung of the 0-3 hole they dug for themselves with an impressive 7-1 rout of the Sharks on Thursday night. Game 5 at San Jose tonight will be the true test to see if the Wings have a shot a making an historic run over the next few days or not. In advance of tonight’s game, I cant help but drift down memory lane to the other two times in my fandom the Wings faced a 0-3 defecit in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

1992, CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS, SECOND ROUND, LOST 4-0

In a way, the franchise hasnt looked back from the 1991-92 season. It was the first year the Wings were truly one of the best teams in the league. The breakthrough teams in the late 1980s, the high goal scoring Yzerman years, were amazing clubs, but they were also a clear notch below the Edmontons, Calgarys and Montreals of the world at the time. The missed the playoffs in 1990 and while they returned to the postseaon in 1991 they only finished in third place in the division, had a losing record and finished almost 30 points behind the top two teams in the Norris. While it looked like things were coming together as they leapt out to a 3 games to 1 lead over heavily favored St. Louis in the first round, the Wings lost the next three and the series in seven games. It didnt seem like a league power was emerging.

But the Wings were unbeatable coming out of the gates the next season, their hot start one of the main storylines of the fall portion of the schedule. A year after a whiz kid Russian dynamo–Sergei Fedorov–debuted as a winger for Detroit, the Wings were now also  getting efficient, aggressive and playmaking blueline play from a Swedish rookie named Niklas Lidstrom.  At the time I was a sophomore at Indiana University, so I didnt see much of the action. Its not exactly hot hockey territory in Bloomington. This was during a time when the league and ESPN were at an impasse in broadcast agreements, so no games, not even playoffs, were on anything that could be considered national television. Some bars had satelittes, and I could go watch a game there if I could convince them to put a hockey game on, not to mention weaseling my underage ass into the place to begin with. I couldnt wait to get home for Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks to watch some of their games. Their seemingly annual New Year’s Eve games became more must-see for me than any crappy bowl game that may have been on those nights. The Wings cruised to the Norris Division Title, had the second most points in the whole league and scored over 98 points, a tally that never had really seemed likely before for the franchise. For the first time in my life as a fan, the Wings were a Stanley Cup contender.  And they’ve been the team to beat ever since.

 But it wasnt meant to be that specific spring. They fell behind 3-1 to the Minnesota North Stars in the first round, but rallied to take the opening series in seven games. It included an amazing 1-0 win on the road the sixth game, a contest I could only monitor through ESPN updates back when they only showed a ticker of scores at every 28 and 58 minute mark of the hour. I think I watched the whole series that way. Instead of prepping for exams, I was a pavlov dog for 3-4 hours every other night for the final three weeks of school. But the comeback expended all their energy. The Blackhawks, who had won the the President’s Cup the year before, finished the 1992 strong, had fresher legs and made just enough plays in every close game to forge a 3-0 series lead. I returned home from school in time to watch the fourth game on PASS, but the Blackhawks did it to the Wings one last time, scoring a game winner in overtime to win the game 1-0 and the series 4-0. I still remember the cameras showing James Freaking Belushi whooping it up and tossing a broom onto the ice celebrating the game winner. What a dork. All his movies and shows stink anyway. The loss stung, but you had a feel that the Wings were already a really good team whose better days were ahead of them. The Hawks taught them a playoff lesson on the need to play perfect.  The Wings would be more than ready the following year, we thought, to handle the postseason as a favorite. It was all good. Read more »