Last year, I broke new ground and placed my first ever future bets of any kind for a single season when I took some win totals for the 2009 baseball campaign. When I was tinkering with what amounted to the JustCoverBlog 0.5, I wrote a blog post about it. I would blog randomly throughout the summer on the ups and downs of the endeavor. That was part of the plan for the fledgling blog. Well, that aspect didnt carry over when the JCB debuted in wordpress in the summer. But, the picks did endure. Fortune shined on me all season, and I won all four. I dont really gamble on baseball. It’s not that fun. But after last year’s success, I feel the pull to put something down on some baseball futures to at least give me an active stake in the season. I dont really consider myself a fan of any baseball team, so this will also give me something to follow and root for until the 2010 football season becomes a reality. At times, we’ll be dressed up as blogs for these teams as we chronicle the progress of these investments. We know we’ll have fun tracking these. We hope we’re as lucky as last year. Let’s Play Ball!
COLORADO OVER 85 WINS
I keep hearing about how great Colorado is going to be. Some have said they have the deepest team in the National League. Its hype that I buy. They are young, talented and can beat you in many different ways. With playoff appearances in two out of the last three years, they know how to win. I think its a 90-win ballclub, and they wont need a major break through to get that done. Everybody seems to be picking them, both pundits and the gamblers. They are the chic pick this spring, but they still are not betting chalk to win the division. You can still get 2.25 to 1 on them at sportsbook, while the Dodgers remain the favorite per their board at 1.5 to 1.
I happen to agree with the Rockies love. And I’m excited to see them play. But, I feel they have a better shot at achieving at least 85 wins than they do winning the NL West. I feel this division could easily have a pair of 90-game winners. The Rockies, Dodgers and Giants would all be in my top-half of the NL if I were the sort to concoct power ratings. I’d put Arizona up there as well if you can guarantee me a healthy Brandon Webb who will bounce back as strongly as, for example, Chris Carpenter did a year ago. I do think the Rockies are the best of the NL West bunch, but so many things can happen to keep this team from winning this division. Unlike them getting beyond the 85-win mark, winning the division would be a franchise break through. I dont know if I want to bet with certainty that that will happen. But, this team wont languish near .500. They have too much talent. They’ll cruise by the 85 win mark before summer ends. But, the NL West race wont be over by then. They wont win any NL West bet I would make if they dont go over 85 wins, anyway. This Over 84.5 is the easier bet to win, so I’ll take it.
Besides, I want a reason to watch and root for the Rockies. I always had a fantasy baseball rule of always making sure to pick a Rockie and get in early on whoever is suddenly going to be getting a lot of at-bats in their lineup. I did so because its fun to have an invested reason in staying up late on any given night in the summer to pull for something good to happen with the always potent Rockie offense. I loved the thrill of seeing a 10-7 final score, knowing that a guy on my fantasy team probably had fingerprints all over one of those rallies. Over the years, I have had some fun runs with Todd Helton, Garret Atkinson, Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday. In recent seasons, I have also seeked out their pitchers. Ubaldo Jimeniz anchored my club last year that adanced into my league’s Final Four. Well, I am officially retired from fantasy baseball. Or at least taking a one year break. I know I will miss the thrill of tuning into a Rockies game for those implications. So, I am doing the next best thing. I’m investing in their season. Given this is the best the franchise has ever looked, its the right timing. I think they pass this win mark before the first Sunday of the NFL season. I cant wait for 2010 Rockie baseball. I wont even let the fact that four Colorado pitchers begin the season on the DL get me down today. But, I will point out its reasons like that that I feel this win investment is a safer one, even if it doesnt pay out as much, as any of them taking the NL West pennant.
DETROIT TIGERS OVER 80.5 WINS
The Detroit Tigers had a run of 15 straight losing seasons. But the Dombrowski/Leyland team has produced winning seasons in 3 of the last 4 years, averaging just under 87 wins a campaign. So if you’re asking me to wager whether or not the Tigers can nudge out a winning record, I’m more than willing to say yes. Conveniently, oddsmakers have made their O/U win total 80.5. Since all they have to do is have a .500 record or better to win this one, I’ll make the investment on the Over. A lot needs to happen for the Tigers to qualify for the postseason, but I think enough falls their way where another winning season can be put in the books.
Yes, this team has weaknesses. They’re threatening to open the year with Dontrelle Willis in the starting rotation. The bottom of the order looks like an average National League team. They will still be on the wrong side of the frustrating 2-1, 3-2 losses that plagued them a year ago. They will burn quality starts simply because they cant manufacture runs. They were in 2009 midseason form in an exhibition loss Friday in one of the final tuneups for the season. Those issues will keep them from winning the division. They might make them a third place team, but it wont keep them from at least sneaking into the clubhouse no worse than .500.
They have a great top of the rotation. Justin Verlander-Rick Porcello-Max Szcherer form one of the best 1-2-3 starting punches in the American League. We’re going to get a lot of mileage towards this number out of that trio. While their offensive problems from 2009 might not be any better, the Tigers look to have solved the second major issue that sunk last year. They had 24 blown saves a year, but with their new look pen, I expect that number to shrink. Leyland has a deeper set of options, particularily from the left side, to help bridge the game to the eighth and ninth innings. They were actually pretty solid at the end of games a year ago, but even there the addition of Jose Valverde is a major upgrade in the closer department. Instead of patching a bullpen together, relying on a healthy Joel Zumaya to comeback and give it some legitimacy, they finally went out and added some value to the a pen this offseason. I like the result of their shopping. Now, if Zumaya indeed can come back and pitch for the club, he will adding to a team strength.
We’re going to be heartbroken several times this summer as the back end of Tigers rotation and bottom half of the order betray the team. But, the improvements in the bullpen will help offset that and keep Detroit on the winning side of ledger in 2010. A rookie of the year season out of Austin Jackson would be helpful too.
CHICAGO CUBS OVER 83.5 WINS
A year ago I won a win total bet with the Cardinals at this same number. St. Louis was coming off a disappointing season that I sensed was more aberration than new standard. They still seemed miles behind the Cubs, who were heavy chalk in the division race a year ago, but I figured with a simple bounce back to what we had been accustomed to out of the Cards would make this team closer to a 90-win team, than to an 80-win team. With the total set at 83.5, I took a chance. We all saw the Cards bounce back to their norm in a big way.
I think the tables are turned for 2010 and the Cubs will repeat what the Cards did a year ago. And, like last year, I wont go as far as calling them to win the division, but I love them to go over 83.5 wins. I think this club will approach 90 wins. They have had three winning seasons in a row. Last year, they collected 83 wins and it was considered a disappointment. Here’s why they exceed that win total and contend for the postseason again: Aramis Ramirez wont miss a ton of games due to injuries. Carlos Zambrano will win more than 9 games. Moving Soriano to the sixth spot and far, far, away from the leadoff role will be the most important lineup shuffle of the season. The starting rotation is good with Zambrano, Dempster, Wells and eventually Lilly, giving them a top shelf NL staff. Carlos Silva will be Kevin Tapini reincarnate at the rotation’s back end. Geovani Sota will rebound closer to 2008 form. Ryan Theriot will give them a serviceable leadoff hitter, which is legit improvement from a year ago.
The bullpen is a concern. Its been revamped and is a tad on the inexperienced side, but I think it can be improved from a year ago. I worry about Carlos Marmol being the man in the ninth inning. He had a notable hiccup a week ago in an exhibition game. But, he’s pitched nearly six innings of scoreless ball since, but not one appearance as a closer. By all accounts, he remains the ninth inning Plan A. He only has 23 career saves, but if he ends up more than doubling that total through the course of this season, or if whoever does close, performs more effectively than Kevin Gregg a year ago, then we’ll be ahead of this 83.5-win pace all season long.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES TO WIN THE NL EAST, -160
I can only say with any conviction who will one division. And thats the Phillies in the NL East. Yes, the Braves are dangerous. Yes, the Marlins are up and coming. Yes, the Mets are bent on getting back into contention. But none of those teams are as close to complete as the Fighting Phils are. This team will win the division by at least 7 games. The rest will be thick in the wild card race, so dont discount them come October. But over the course of six months, the Phillies will be insurmountable pace setters in this divisional race. I have no clue who willthe other five divisions. I could flip a coin between the contenders, write those down and have as good a chance getting this picks rights as I would if I acutally broke it down and analyzed it hard core. But the Phillies are the closest thing I can see to a sure thing in these divisional races. They are too talented, the chasers are too flawed. The price of -160 is kind of expensive, but I think the added risk up front is worth it because you’ll still make 62.5-percent return on investment when it does come through. Sometime in September, the Phillies will be celebrating a divisional title, but will be yawning in the process because its not the prize they wanted. But, we’ll be doing cartwheels because this bet will have come through. I like this Phillie a lot. This will give me a reason to really root for them.
Four bets. For a total of 10 Units risked when all the jiuce is tallied up. That’s a little more than a quarter of the bowl game, college basketball and other winnings accumluated since December began being put on the line. All in the name of having some rooting interests over the course of the long, sometimes mundane baseball season. What could go wrong?
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